The Ongoing Warmth in the UK

[North-Easterly Blast]

I have to say especially after the last year now I am getting tired of all these persistent warm weather patterns and week after week being characterised by the current pattern, and I am just ready for a change to a wider variety of weather with a better variety of weather charts in the model watching. Goodness knows what the April CET will end up at now, it could well end up almost a degree above the previous record holder. With all this I am now beginning to think if the UK's warming has moved into Stage Three since around this time last year, with just runaway warming and month after month being chartacterised by almost the same pattern almost week after week without a break. I mean to say that although up until 1988 there was no sign of a warming trend in the UK which is when the warming process became first noticed, and UK warming definitely moved into Stage Two in 1997 as the post 1997 warming trend is greater than the modest warming of the 1988-1996 era.

One would have thought when looking at the fact that 1879 could end up a full two degrees below the long term average well for since the Little Ice Age anyway, one would think again that a yearly period with annual means 2*C above average was possible, and when you look at the weather patterns that have prevailed in the UK for the last ten years, a 12 month period like we have just had looked bound to happen at some point, but one would think that the UK would go through one off warm periods and they relax their grip. Such as before 1988 an annual CET above 10*C was a once or twice a decade occurrence on average rather than the norm, now well above 10*C has become the norm during recent years.

Although I am now, given this month's weather patterns and that the CET looks set to break the old record by a long way (last July and September were only marginally above the old record) I am wondering if the UK's warming has now moved into Stage Three and a similar vein to the last year will persist for another decade or two. The facts are that over the last 12 months the UK has been a full degree warmer than the standards of the last ten years. What will ever trigger a trend for a change in the surface pressure patterns and synoptics for a change to cooler conditions and at the very least, for the current warmth of the last 12 months to relax its grip? When you consider how much synoptics that affect British Weather have varied in the past it only takes the flick of some factor or "driver" of the synoptics for different weather patterns to develop.

Synoptics do not only affect British Temperatures, they also affect rainfall as well. In actual fact since October 2004 most months have recorded rainfall in the EWR series below the long term average. Why was 2000 such a wet year, in particular the autumn? Because the synoptics were frequent slow moving low pressures over the UK; the same is true for the last 12 month's temperatures; the last 12 months have been dominated by winds from a southerly quarter almost throughout with few and very short lived spells of northerlies.

[North-Easterly Blast]

The truth goes that the period mid-Nov 2005 to mid-April 2006 delivered a colder period that was unusually cold for the last ten years but by no means a 1995-96 winter level of coldness. The only other period that we have had since the mid 90s that was anything comparable to Nov 2005-April 2006 was mid-Dec 2000 to April 2001 when again mild weather was pretty rare during that period, and even in late Jan 2006 we came very close to getting something special in a freeze up when Europe became very cold and we also were close to something special with the "Kettley High" scenario in early Feb 2001 but neither came off and we ended up with just average winters, but by recent years' standards were quite cold.

For the 20th Century, 1962 and 1963 were 1740 / 1879 esque years. Nowhere near on the same scale but you know what I mean. More recently, 1996 was the 1962 / 1963 esque year just on a lesser scale.

So, help needed. Is the UK warming now Stage Three, or is the last 12 months just an 1879 esque year at the opposite (warm) extreme? Surely it must be possible that it is.

[Snowly does it]

So, help needed. Is the UK warming now Stage Three, or is the last 12 months just an 1879 esque year at the opposite (warm) extreme? Surely it must be possible that it is.

To be honest, if it were against a backdrop of steady temperatures, meandering around a fixed mean I;d say yes, a statistical blip (however outrageous). It isn't, it is potentially extraneous warmth but against a warming trend and as much as it pains me, it is something we must get used to for as sure as anything now in my mind, this last year is the future.

To my fellow frigidarios I say this - cherish every snow event you get from now as if it were the last (just in case you understand!), its going to be e rough ride from here on in and I am genuinely frightened at some of the possible outcomes.

[snowray]

To be honest, if it were against a backdrop of steady temperatures, meandering around a fixed mean I;d say yes, a statistical blip (however outrageous). It isn't, it is potentially extraneous warmth but against a warming trend and as much as it pains me, it is something we must get used to for as sure as anything now in my mind, this last year is the future.

To my fellow frigidarios I say this - cherish every snow event you get from now as if it were the last (just in case you understand!), its going to be e rough ride from here on in and I am genuinely frightened at some of the possible outcomes.

OMG Snowmaiden, are you serious, is that realy you?

[Snowly does it]

OMG Snowmaiden, are you serious, is that realy you?

I'm afriad it is Snowray. I just feel its time for me to be realistic, to be honest I started to feel rather queasy when that Arctic High failed to deliver.

You don't get 1:40,000 return stats like 3 record months in 9 and the warmest year on record and continual top 50 months without something being amiss.

What saddens me (having been relatively careful about how I treat the world) is that we have done this.

Sorry to get poetic (but I usually do), however it has gone beyond the vagueries of natural shift, beyond blips and statistical quirks to a realm where the culprit Man is shrouded by only the thinnest veil from his crime, soon to be unravelled and face the music. You cannot allow things to slip forever and expect not to pay the price, and pay we will. Todays barbeque is tomorrow's drought and desert.

It might be only weather, but the carnage mankind has wrought leaves me feeling hollow and afraid.

Any joy I get from any future snowy events will be measured against how I feel now, and unless we see a dramatic reversal (we won't) then it will seem a fals hope against a darkening future.

[Noctilucid]

I'm afriad it is Snowray. I just feel its time for me to be realistic, to be honest I started to feel rather queasy when that Arctic High failed to deliver.

You don't get 1:40,000 return stats like 3 record months in 9 and the warmest year on record and continual top 50 months without something being amiss.

What saddens me (having been relatively careful about how I treat the world) is that we have done this.

Sorry to get poetic (but I usually do), however it has gone beyond the vagueries of natural shift, beyond blips and statistical quirks to a realm where the culprit Man is shrouded by only the thinnest veil from his crime, soon to be unravelled and face the music. You cannot allow things to slip forever and expect not to pay the price, and pay we will. Todays barbeque is tomorrow's drought and desert.

It might be only weather, but the carnage mankind has wrought leaves me feeling hollow and afraid.

Any joy I get from any future snowy events will be measured against how I feel now, and unless we see a dramatic reversal (we won't) then it will seem a fals hope against a darkening future.

Yup, i agree and i hate the heat it depresses me, so at the first chance im migrating north, although that wont be several years yet, i was born in the summer but i dread it every year and im happy when its over, im not so keen on snow i just love those crisp cool breezy days with westerly winds, recently there havent been any.

So when i end my education im off to live in scotland or failing that Reykjavik!

I hate living in the hot humid south east

Joe

[Rollo]

I'm afriad it is Snowray. I just feel its time for me to be realistic, to be honest I started to feel rather queasy when that Arctic High failed to deliver.

You don't get 1:40,000 return stats like 3 record months in 9 and the warmest year on record and continual top 50 months without something being amiss.

What saddens me (having been relatively careful about how I treat the world) is that we have done this.

Sorry to get poetic (but I usually do), however it has gone beyond the vagueries of natural shift, beyond blips and statistical quirks to a realm where the culprit Man is shrouded by only the thinnest veil from his crime, soon to be unravelled and face the music. You cannot allow things to slip forever and expect not to pay the price, and pay we will. Todays barbeque is tomorrow's drought and desert.

It might be only weather, but the carnage mankind has wrought leaves me feeling hollow and afraid.

Any joy I get from any future snowy events will be measured against how I feel now, and unless we see a dramatic reversal (we won't) then it will seem a fals hope against a darkening future.

This is a very sad post Snow Maiden yet I have to agree with nearly everything you have said--I have tried to ignore the successive warm summers and mild winters but there comes a point when one has to stop burying your head in the sand. The future does not bode well for cold lovers (in winter)like myself and although I will hope against hope that a sea change will occur and we will have a run of cold winters frankly at this moment in time I do not see it happening. As regards to summers-I certainly enjoy warm weather but the weekend before last I spent in central London and it was very very warm indeed-hard to believe it was April,if this trend continues parts of the South East will bake in the middle of summer-ah well enough doom and gloom let us hope we are both wrong.

[shuggee]

let us hope we are both wrong.

I'll drink to that matey

[Snowly does it]

let us hope we are both wrong.

Yes, I'll always hope, forlornly or not.

At least I got to see 78/79, Jan 87, Feb 91 and the like

[eddie]

Sometimes I wish I was unaware of CET records and statistics because I am actually starting to find it quite frightening how fast we are warming up.

I went outside the other night to move my wheelie bin and it felt strangely warm. This was about 9pm. When I checked, depite the fact it was dark and raining, it was 16C! Sixteen degrees! At night, in the rain, in April! That's just crazy.

How much longer can this warming continue? If some of this warming is due to synoptics then surely we must hit a point soon where it just can't get any hotter and things will either even out or cool down, at least for a little while?

[skifreak]

A couple of points on this. The winter just past saw the biggest snowfalls to the Scottish Ski Areas come from Zonality - this is the first time this has happened for quite some time, snow driven in on ripping SW winds and South winds seemed like a distant past.

If snow can still come from the SW then it sure as hell can still come from other Compass points. It was by no means a classic ski season, and like many dominated by Westerlies sadly an awful one for Glenshee and the Lecht in the East, but on the other hand it was the best early season that the two Western Areas had for a number of years.

Indeed the Upper Runs at Glencoe are still complete, as is he upper Goose Gully and the off-piste Back Corries at Nevis Range. In this, one of the mildest of winters it wasn't lack of snow that ended the Scottish Ski Season - IT WAS LACK OF SKIERS - a lack brought about largely due to the never ending banging of the Global Warming - no snow UK drum across the media.

The sport I love and industry within which I work is dying - not due to climate change, but the greatly exaggerated perception of it generated by media hysteria!

[sundog]

i am really getting worried about our changing climate because of the last 12 months it just seems to be one above average month now after another now with no end in sight. the last 12 months have really shocked me i have to say. i hoped that the winter 2005/06 might have been the start of some type of cool down but alas not,its bloody warmer then ever now. we are going down a dark path not knowing where its leading us and its frightening.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Through the second half of the 20th Century we have seen two notably severe winters (1962-63 and 1978-79) the first of these was to rival anything as cold as we saw in the Little Ice Age! So, it was possible for cold synoptics to sustain themselves. Only in two winters in the last ten years (2000-01 and 2005-06); neither of those ever featured a Bartlett and / or constant depressions running through the GIN corridor, although the synoptics were never anything that could deliver anything special or prolonged in terms of cold. Again in Feb 2005 easterly synoptics developed although unfortunately at a time when Europe was not that cold, although mid Feb - mid March 2005 still managed a CET that was even 2*C below the 1971-2000 average for that period.

If only the subtropical high pressure belt would die or shut down then the UK and much of Europe as well would become much colder, as synoptics would then be able to drive colder air to these areas.

How can man's activities have affected the evolvement of weather patterns? Logic would tell me that on average the same weather patterns of the last 100 years and more would still occur today with the charts on average looking the same, with northerlies and easterlies of the same frequency, but even the cold synoptics would deliver much warmer temps than they used to, rather than seeing Bartlett after Bartlett or high pressure glued to the UK or over Eastern or Central Europe. We have even seen this month two attempts at a Greenland High, around the 3rd/4th and 18th/19th, yet on both occasions the block has been unable to establish itself over Greenland due to small low pressure features in the area and so we have been just left with the high pressure moving back to be glued to the UK or Europe, and the Easter northerly went into Scandinavia. If man's activities have warmed the planet, I would have expected that both this month's failed northerlies to still have materialised but still get temps well into double figures, not that man's activites would prevent the synoptics from developing, as you have got to have synoptics like a Bartlett / Euro High before the UK can become warmer. The UK cannot become warmer before those synoptics develop.

[snowray]

Yes, I'll always hope, forlornly or not.

At least I got to see 78/79, Jan 87, Feb 91 and the like

Certainly very sad Snowmaiden, what can I say, great years indeed, and not forgetting Dec 1981.

Its incredibly mild again here this evening, just checked the temps around the South East and the London met office at 22.00 was still over 17c with other areas not far off that, these should be the sort of max temps we should be seeing at this time of the year I would have thought. The mild just go's on and on and with more to come out on the horizon. Any glimpses of a colder incursion out in FI just seem to fade away as the time frame gets nearer or more annoyingly never seem as severe as one might have expected.

Edited April 24, 2007 by snowray

[richiec]

Sometimes I wish I was unaware of CET records and statistics because I am actually starting to find it quite frightening how fast we are warming up.

I went outside the other night to move my wheelie bin and it felt strangely warm. This was about 9pm. When I checked, depite the fact it was dark and raining, it was 16C! Sixteen degrees! At night, in the rain, in April! That's just crazy.

How much longer can this warming continue? If some of this warming is due to synoptics then surely we must hit a point soon where it just can't get any hotter and things will either even out or cool down, at least for a little while?

Amazing isn't it!? 16c in rain at night and in April?

[snowray]

Amazing isn't it!? 16c in rain at night and in April?

Yup, people have been saying to me that they have had problems sleeping, well what do the expect, they need to get the winter quilts off their beds and open the window. (For now anyway)

[Snowly does it]

Certainly very sad Snowmaiden, what can I say, great years indeed, and not forgetting Dec 1981.

Its incredibly mild again here this evening, just checked the temps around the South East and the London met office at 22.00 was still over 17c with other areas not far off that, these should be the sort of max temps we should be seeing at this time of the year I would have thought. The mild just go's on and on and with more to come out on the horizon. Any glimpses of a colder incursion out in FI just seem to fade away as the time frame gets nearer or more annoyingly never seem as severe as one might have expected.

Max for April ought to be around the 13-14 mark, that says it all really!

[CJ Bowie]

I Agree with everything that has been very eloquantly stated on this message board today. Energy cannot be destroyed, but merely converted to other forms. To an untrained mind, i believe it is impossible to pump a closed atmosphere full of a heating agent and not to feel any effects. Let's hope the heating effects aren't exponential, although they could be.

I live in London, and to all intents and purposes it's high summer already. I have bought Bougainvilea and other sub tropical creepers this year to grow up the front of the house, i have little doubt they will be successful. I am considering an orange tree. Whilst this is intriguing , like you i fear that my exponential theory is correct and we have dark times ahead.

[Bobby]

Still don't believe that this year is indicative of the near future. We are definitely warming and will continue to do so in the future, but this last 12 months has been so exceptional I don't believe that this is the new reality and next year will be warmer again, and the year after etc. If that were so, we'd be like Death Valley in 10 years. This year is a exceptional blip of warming in a steady warming trend IMO. You cannot make such judgements on just 12 months of data.

What would cause such a massive shift in our climate in such a short period? (the last year or 2). Can't think of any.

I believe next year will be cooler. Still above average, but no as exceptionally so. Slowly warming up, but not as rapidly as the last year or 2.

Edited April 24, 2007 by Magpie

[Mammatus]

I Agree with everything that has been very eloquantly stated on this message board today. Energy cannot be destroyed, but merely converted to other forms. To an untrained mind, i believe it is impossible to pump a closed atmosphere full of a heating agent and not to feel any effects. Let's hope the heating effects aren't exponential, although they could be.

I live in London, and to all intents and purposes it's high summer already. I have bought Bougainvilea and other sub tropical creepers this year to grow up the front of the house, i have little doubt they will be successful. I am considering an orange tree. Whilst this is intriguing , like you i fear that my exponential theory is correct and we have dark times ahead.

I agree with this and many other members posts today. The temperature at nearly midnight on an April night in haverhill is reading 15.1C; it's not as if this warm spell is just a blip and cooler air is on its way, this weekend is going to be even warmer. It would be pointless and unnecessary of me to say its going to cool down soon, when we all know it probably isn't! Let alone return to near normal variants. 2007 has been quite a year so far with a VERY stormy start (Near Hurricane force winds at the start of January), then tornado's, hail storms, flooding, now drought conditions with exceptionally high mean temperatures. What next?

Mammatus

Edited April 24, 2007 by Mammatus

[richiec]

Yup, people have been saying to me that they have had problems sleeping, well what do the expect, they need to get the winter quilts off their beds and open the window. (For now anyway)

I have the window open still and it isn't even chilly. I have 18c here atm and 70% humidity.

I really can not get over the number of days we have seen temps over 20c already. I have seen temps in the 20s during the middle of March before, but that was only 3 days topping at 21c! Here, we have even had multiple 23c days!

[Stu_London]

Since 1987 we have warmed at a rate of about double that of the globe generally - If you look at the last 12 months then cross the word double out and replace it with treble.

My theory for this is that synoptics and synoptics alone have been the driver in the latest jump forward in temperatures. It would be almost impossible for us to have much more of a tropical continental influence than last summer and autumn - or a tropical maritime influence than the winter just passed and therefore sypnotics since June 2006 are almost optimum for the warmest/mildest weather the UK can possible experience.

Putting it simply, the UK physically cannot get much warmer than it is now unless a new wind direction is invented that is warmer than a southerly in summer or a SWrly in winter.

The temperature at the origins of these winds may be getting slightly warmer but not on the scale we have seen here.

The same can be said for most contries at high Northern latitudes with a maritime influence, indeed in scandinavia where they are used to it being much colder, some of their monthly anomolies make ours look very ordinary.

For this very reason it is very likely that this is very much a lurch forward in the warming and we may see a plateau around the 11C (annual CET) mark with some cooler years over the next decade before any warming trend continues. The only way warming can continue at the current rate is if there is the temperatures at the origins of where our weather has been coming from were to suddenly rise more rapidly than seen previously.

Edited April 25, 2007 by Stu_London

[skifreak]

Just an observation from the garden here in the Scottish Highlands, obviously we've had the crocuses, and the daffs, now the Tulips have been out for about a week... and this evening in amongst the Tulips I noticed something else just coming into flower.....

... the snowdrops?

What gives there????

[acbrixton]

Just an observation from the garden here in the Scottish Highlands, obviously we've had the crocuses, and the daffs, now the Tulips have been out for about a week... and this evening in amongst the Tulips I noticed something else just coming into flower.....

... the snowdrops?

What gives there????

Bizzare...would be interested to hear when bluebells flower this year. I recall that I saw bluebells in flower in the hills above Mallaig in the last week of June 1994.

Regards

ACB

[North-Easterly Blast]

Last autumn was dominated by tropical maritime air rather than tropical continental air. The first half of September was mostly tropical continental as the source of the air was from the Mediterranean, whereas from mid September onwards it was tropical maritime as the air was mainly from SW'lies originating from the sub tropical Atlantic.