DAY 1 DISCUSSION - 30-04-07

[Paul Sherman]

We are currently in NW Oklahoma City in a Holiday Inn Express, have lots to do today before we meet Nathan at DFW.

We met Aine & Stewart at DFW Yesterday, GPS Working okay and have taken hold of the Barons System from Dave,

Will post some pictures of the team & our beast of a Car later, looks like central & west Texas for some scattered storms later.

Yesterday Stats

Miles # 221

Wildlife Hit # None

Speak later guys.

Paul Sherman, Nick F & Ian

[Paul Sherman]

Just been looking at the Models more closely and looks like at least 7 Straight days at least of Chasing, with the 4-8 day outlook still progging a Major event for Friday to Sunday, some Dryline magic should be plenty of Supercells with nice Tornado Risk.

Paul S

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Miles # 221

Wildlife Hit # None

:unsure:

We didn't have these stats last year!! Cracking! That had me in tears!!!

[pottyprof]

And here is that outlook Paul....

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0336 AM CDT MON APR 30 2007

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING AS ECMWF/GFS ARE FALLING IN LINE WITH

EACH OTHER. THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE

ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THE

ECMWF/UKMET FORM A LOWER LATITUDE TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE

THE GFS IS STILL OVER THE NWRN U.S. BEFORE DEEPENING THE VORTEX INTO

THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN MAY 4TH. THE MAIN

MESSAGE SEEMS TO BE THAT THIS WILL ENHANCE RETURN FLOW OF GULF

MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON MAY 3 AND 4 AND

RE-ESTABLISHING THE DRYLINE ALONG THE CAP ROCK ESCARPMENT OF W TX.

IT LOOKS LIKE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL THEN TURN

CYCLONICALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT AND

IF A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPS AS PER THE GFS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MAY

4-6 TIME FRAME.

..MCCARTHY.. 04/30/2007

[Joneseye]

Just been looking at the Models more closely and looks like at least 7 :unsure: Straight days at least of Chasing, with the 4-8 day outlook still progging a Major event for Friday to Sunday, some Dryline magic should be plenty of Supercells with nice Tornado Risk.

Paul S

Fingers crossed Paul! Good luck to you and I hope you get to see and record some decent Tornado footage... oh and stay safe and keep clear of wildlife

[NL]

Thunderstorm risk central Northern Texas Tornado probability 5%,

http://www.wfaa.com/video/index.html?nvid=139615&shu=1 by this they're expecting dry

weather at the weekend.

[stevestorms]

Yo dude!!! save some for us :lol:

[pottyprof]

Is that 'nadoes, steak or beer Steve??

[Paul]

Being realistic I don't think Paul is likely to save any beer or steak, so it must be 'nadoes!

[stevestorms]

Is that 'nadoes, steak or beer Steve??

MMMMMMMMMMM Thats a tough call will have to consult me laptop and come up with some kind of plan , eat -get drunk -chase mmmmmmmmmm nope chase eat get drunk mmmm nope ???? I dun know

[tinybill]

the boys chasing storms looks like there some brewing in http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/ at Rural Fayette County, TX

[kold weather]

Yep the period between the 4th and the 6th looks extremely good, the GFS for example progs 4800kjs of cape locally on the 5th in N.Texas!

Huge amounts of energy to use if the storms can latch on to them.

[Paul R]

Blimey. Been that busy recently didn't realise there was a storm chase to the US this year. I think I'll park myself in this forum for the next few weeks. Good luck to those going out there.

[kold weather]

Quite a early started today ,for reasons I've said in the other thread, IE decay of a cap, early peak temps and so on. already some cells have popped in a linear formation from N-S in SE Okalhoma so if the guys want some early action you could go after that line because its quite strong with tops maxing out at 45000 feet according to the radar. There is also another batch of cells just to the north of that line which look a little more discrete right now however given the decaying cap it could go the same way as the line to its south eventually and right now they don't look quite as tall our as potent given they are further away from the highest cape.

[NL]

Mesoscale Discussion 627< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT MON APR 30 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 301822Z - 302015Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOPED NWD TODAY WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. MOREOVER...AREA HAS EXPERIENCES LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THIS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV LIFTING NWD THROUGH SRN INTO CNTRL OK WITH EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE TAIL OF THIS FEATURE FROM GARVIN INTO MARSHALL COUNTIES IN OK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE ZONES WHERE REMAINING CAP WILL BE LOCALLY WEAKENED. REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE THAT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE MARGINAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MULTICELLULAR IN CHARACTER WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ..MEAD.. 04/30/2007Still not expecting to much out of this, but still early afternoon.

[tinybill]

now going but there intense storms near texes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=grk...111&loop=no

[NL]

Oh heck, i forgot they're away down to DFW to pick up Gorky!! Doh!!

Storms are moving in a north easterly direction, Wichita Falls..? Still 130+ mile from the airport, still if heading NW should catch some scattered multicells along the way..

Dont look much at the moment but with temps in the mid 70's these have the potential to intensify.

[pottyprof]

An area south of Lubbock under a tornado warning.

Not sure where the team are heading at the moment but with the current development they should see something of interest..

[pottyprof]

Some thoughts for the weekend from stormtrack.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread...2173&page=4

[Paul Sherman]

Currently sitting in Decatur on Highway to Heaven (HW287) With some big cells to our south, Nick has bagged the room with a view over the valley to the South-East B) So we could have some good Lightning opps tonight, currently looking like a nice chase in the area tomorrow, today was a nice jolt North-west after picking Nathan up from the Airport. Will post a Discussion page for tomorrow later.

Paul & Team

[pottyprof]

Just to give an idea as to location and current conditions.