Day 3 Discussion 02/05/07

[Gorky]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1237 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NORTH

TX...

...WEST TX/SE NM...

A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OPEN AND PROGRESS

EWD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY APPROACHING WEST TX. LIFT AHEAD OF

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WEST TX AND THIS WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE REGION. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING

WITH STORM COVERAGE INCREASING AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT

COMES OUT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION AND AREAS OF

STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY DETERMINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS

INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR STRONG

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE

STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM MIDLAND EXTENDING EWD TO SAN ANGELO AND

SWD TO DEL RIO. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY LATE IN THE

PERIOD.

MODEL FORECASTS IDENTIFY A MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO

MOVING THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET INTO SW TX AND WCNTRL TX TODAY.

THIS SHOULD CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS

MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES

LOCATED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR

VERY LARGE HAIL IN AREAS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION

OCCURS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH A FEW

TORNADOES AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS AND

ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD

DECREASE OVERNIGHT...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL EXIST AFTER

MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS REMAINS SUSTAINED OVERNIGHT.

...MT/NRN WY...

A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE TOWARD THE

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALLING ACROSS THE

NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT YET IDENTIFIABLE ON

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A VORTICITY MAX ACROSS

THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT ON THE

WRN EDGE OF A NRN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MT AND WY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST

SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN MT AND NRN WY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL

THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES STILL

REMAIN CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND STORM COVERAGE.

...SRN OH VALLEY/SRN VA/NRN NC...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL

APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F

SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT

BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH

FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE

BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE

ASCENT...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE

STRONGER POCKETS OF INSTABILITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE

NEAR PEAK HEATING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE

STORMS SHOULD BE OVER SRN VA AND NRN NC WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS

FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FURTHER WEST.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 05/02/2007

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 0550Z (6:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

---------------------------------------------------------------

Current Plans are to head WNW to somewhere between San Angelo and Midland, although we will certainly refine our starting spot tomorrow morning when we get up.

[BrickFielder]

Yes Texas still looks to be the place to be today.

Bit of a surprise according to GFS this morning as conditions combine to give quite a good possibility for a storm over Louisanna tomorrow. The limiting factor is likely to be instability (Cape). Thunderstorms will continue across Texas although there will be less chance of super cells. I guess you will want to be in the right place for Friday or more importantly Saturday and this may determine your choices for Thursday.

Friday and it looks like a move up north towards Oklahoma if not further as a new system comes in for the Weekend.

[Roger J Smith]

Remnants of yesterday's complex drifting south and east away from the current team location, probably the best chase opportunity today will be further west around Midland to Fort Stockton. A back-door cold front has developed over eastern NM overnight and this feature will drift ESE into the southwest portion of the TX panhandle with the most severe cells likely to be around the southern flank of this complex after mid-day, moving slowly E to ENE after initially moving ESE this morning.

This feature should be joined late today by a developing dry line feature and very severe conditions could develop in the Midland-Odessa area by evening. Despite the wording in the SSPC outlook, I would rate this developing cluster as moderate risk with long-lasting severe cells overnight through regions between Midland and Fort Worth. Then on Thursday this complex will be moving into se OK and e TX with more action developing over west Texas as the cold fronts arrive with low pressure over se CO.

Thinking that the best storm chase action may then revert back to the west despite the large complex of severe weather moving into AR and LA for the usual reasons of visibility of cells and less crowded highways. However, the storm risk will probably be assessed at moderate with the east Texas to Louisiana complex, so it may be a tough call for Thursday. For today, however, looks to me like heading west would be the best idea. I am heading back to bed as it is 0300 here.

[NL]

Dont think the team willbe quite on this yet!! Ole sleepy heeds B) .

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 AM CDT WED MAY 02 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW/W-CENTRAL TX...SMALL PART OF EXTREME SERN NM. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021240Z - 021445Z SVR TSTM POTENTIAL FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THIS REGION...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING NEAR AND S OF WARM FRONT DIABATICALLY HEATS/DESTABILIZES AIR MASS IN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. AT 12Z...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW BETWEEN FST-GDP...WITH WARM FRONT ESEWD BETWEEN FST-INK TO VICINITY UVA AND SAT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT/MIX NWD ACROSS I-10 DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MEANWHILE...SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE WEAK CAP EVIDENT IN MAF RAOB FROM WNW-ESE...WITH STRONGER CINH EVIDENT AROUND DRT. EVEN THOUGH N OF WARM FRONT...SHALLOW CHARACTER OF STABLE LAYER IN MAF RAOB INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS GENERATED ALONG SRN EDGE OF EXISTING COMPLEX TO REACH SFC. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SWD TOWARD WARM FRONTAL ZONE AND INTO WARM SECTOR THROUGH FORENOON HOURS. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH TEMPS HEATING INTO 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING BY 15Z...AND INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG BY 17Z ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER SW TX. ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS MAY REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35 KT NEAR INK -- INCREASING SWD TO AROUND 50 KT NEAR RIO GRANDE...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO POTENTIAL. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 642 FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER NRN PART OF THIS AREA. ..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2007.

[NL]

It has been suggested that this could go moderate risk.

Storm projected to move SE down the H85 reaching Concan by

mid-afternoon. The team are roughly positioned 70 mile away from

Concan. Looks like they'll be on this one,.. Big Breakfast all round!! B)

[pottyprof]

Unsure as to where the team currently are but there are some severe storm warned areas west of Midland. I would imagine this area is being kept a close eye on.

[pottyprof]

GFS suggests very high levels of CAPE available once again.

High temps and dewpoints

And a nice air circulation.

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys

We are currently sat at the Comfort Inn at Junction on I10, We have amazing views and the guys are taking scenery photos, we are currently about 80 miles south of the Tail end Charlie which is moving south-eastwards towards us, repeat of yesterday could be in the offing.

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

That puts them....

there......

Looking like a great position Paul. Lets hope for one in the bag today.. B)

[NL]

Ha ha , didnt realize that its a place called Junction!! I thought they were just at some junction!! doh!

How thick am I......

[Nick F]

Were in a great position here if we do get some severe storms with big hail from tail end charlie passing over, there's a large awning over the entrance of the Days Inn where were parked overlooking te valley W/NW, still grey and humid here with a little light drizzle at times, skies seem to be clearing just ahead of the tsil end squall out to the West, so should get a good view hopefully ofit approaching! Guys are taking some pics of the lanscape right now,plenty ofwierd and wonderfull cactii with flowers and unusual birds.

[NL]

Tornado warning issued.. Be extra careful!!

[Roger J Smith]

Here is the current radar (should stay current if you refresh or even if you don't)

www.weatherimages.org/radar/kmaf.shtml

Looks like two tornadic cells, one near the I-10 east of Ft Stockton and the other southeast of Big Spring. This complex should grow stronger as it approaches the higher dewpoints around Brownwood to Sonora and with daytime heating. Expect eastward motion of 20-30 mph with this cluster of storms which will be like a squall line then later a meso-scale complex. Later today a weak front now in western NM should begin to activate and form a wave with this feature pivoting to take on more of an east-west orientation. Very good tornado possibility here today.

Adding at 1710z ... apparent hook echo and tornado on this radar approx 45 WNW Sonora, also approaching tornadic type cell 30 east Fort Stockton and 10 south I-10.

This cowboy must return to the other rodeo now.

Edited May 2, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Guys,

Have just heard the tornado warning on the weather radio. This could go 1 of 2 ways, we may sit this out under the hotel canopy and film some big hail or if the line passes just north of us, we will chase it from the southern edge. Exciting times i the next 3 hours.

The photo opps from here should be amazing as the gust front comes through, we have 10 mile unobstructed views and are very high up on a Mountain

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Decisions decisions.. :lol:

[pottyprof]

Current view from Lubbock..

Either the dates wrong or the camera is offline.. :lol:

[Gorky]

This is the view from Junction :lol:

And yes, We have wireless and this view in the same spot!

[Anti-Mild]

Let's be careful out there...

[pottyprof]

This is the view from Junction

And yes, We have wireless and this view in the same spot!

That is an amazing view.. Shows how behind the times we are in the uk with the WiFi.. I'd be lucky to get a connection in Sheffield city centre.. :lol:

[tinybill]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...111&loop=no

be careful guys wish i was there :lol:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp...;blog=community

on here they are talking about tornadoes in texes right now

Edited May 2, 2007 by tinybill

[NL]

Live view of Abilene well nigh on..

Edited May 2, 2007 by Northern Light

[Nick F]

Still sitting tight here at Day's Inn, Junction TX - Barons showing a rotating supercell moving ENE direct towards us on the tail end of the storms just SE of Sonora or about 50 miles West of here. Still full cloud cover here, so not ideal for seeing the approach of this beast. But we should hopefully see a good gust front and some decent lightning. Barons indicating 1.5" hail, could well be bigger than this as barons often underestimates hail size.

[NL]

Cloud top of the cell the team are waiting on is 42000 ft and is producing hail

2 and 3/4 inch travelling WSW at 24 knots.

[Gorky]

It's coming right for us :lol:

[NL]

It's coming right for us :lol:

Just over an hour to wait!! say ya prayers!! Travelling just under 30mph and just over 30mile away!!