1 In 8 Chance of Record Breaking Temps this Summer...

[Costa Del Fal]

Some Interesting Feedback. I look forward to what will happen. There are going to be some right and wrong people!

[Roger J Smith]

This long run of very warm temperatures, about a year long now, obviously puts the statistical probability of a hot summer up by quite a bit, but I can't see this going on indefinitely, and indeed it looks like there is some chance of a major cooling trend later this month. Whether that resets the atmosphere back to perhaps the more normal 2005 levels, or just fails to materialize, remains to be seen.

I don't understand how one can verify a statement like 1 in 8 chance of record breaking temperatures. Clearly, more people will be impressed by it if there are record breaking temperatures, but on the face of it, the statement implies a 7 in 8 chance that there will not be record breaking temperatures, so that should impress more.

Since the same could be said for 1 in 4 or 1 in 3, it is hard to get much of a feel for whether the statement is verifiable at all in any meaningful sense.

Personally, I think there will be another round of exceptional heat this summer, and it may come a bit later than in 2006, more like very late July and into August. This is just a forecast, not a probability statement, so it will be either right or wrong. A mean temperature of 18.5 in either month or an extreme max of 35 or higher would be the thresh-hold for validation. Those are the over-under values I would give, so probably they would not quite qualify as "record breaking" and maybe that's the sort of paradigm that the 1 in 8 chance refers to, a belief that it will be very warm, but 1 in 8 chance that the very warm will break records. If they mean all-time records, that would be a tall order after last summer.

[noggin]

the statement implies a 7 in 8 chance that there will not be record breaking temperatures, so that should impress more.

I agree completely. The BBC newsreader who imparted this info said it as if 1 in 8 meant it was a dead cert! It's all in the delivery. (flippin' media again )

My personal view is that we are long overdue for a cooler Summer. What goes up must come down. Global warming has plateaued.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

I don't understand how one can verify a statement like 1 in 8 chance of record breaking temperatures. Clearly, more people will be impressed by it if there are record breaking temperatures, but on the face of it, the statement implies a 7 in 8 chance that there will not be record breaking temperatures, so that should impress more.

Since the same could be said for 1 in 4 or 1 in 3, it is hard to get much of a feel for whether the statement is verifiable at all in any meaningful sense.

Personally, I think there will be another round of exceptional heat this summer, and it may come a bit later than in 2006, more like very late July and into August. This is just a forecast, not a probability statement, so it will be either right or wrong. A mean temperature of 18.5 in either month or an extreme max of 35 or higher would be the thresh-hold for validation. Those are the over-under values I would give, so probably they would not quite qualify as "record breaking" and maybe that's the sort of paradigm that the 1 in 8 chance refers to, a belief that it will be very warm, but 1 in 8 chance that the very warm will break records. If they mean all-time records, that would be a tall order after last summer.

I agree that the precise calling is daft, and cannot be substantiated. What is interesting though, holding aside the misleading precision, is the fact that the odds are short and nobody is really quibbling. That you are even suggesting record heat Roger, after, as you admit, record breaking heat last summer, demonstrates how far the argument has come and how much we now all accept this warmth as normal. It's no longer "will it be unsually warm" so much as "how unusually warm will it be"?

...

My personal view is that we are long overdue for a cooler Summer. What goes up must come down. Global warming has plateaued.

The first (whilst providing a comforting old wives' tale) is untrue - certainly over short cycles - and even then would require an unchanging closed system: current conditions on earth are not unchanging. The second cannot be proven. You can wish it, but I'd like to see you prove it.

[johnholmes]

the statement of a 1 in 8 chance of a record summer equals about 12.5% chance of it happening. In other words its a small chance. I wonder if that is what they meant?

In an effort to be as simple as possible they have made, what as SM so succinctly comments, as a daft statement.

Why on earth say something like, '... the chances of another record breaking summer are quite low as we see it at the moment...'?

Edited May 4, 2007 by johnholmes

[Bobby]

the statement of a 1 in 8 chance of a record summer equals about 12.5% chance of it happening. In other words its a small chance. I wonder if that is what they meant?

In an effort to be as simple as possible they have made, what as SM so succinctly comments, as a daft statement.

Why on earth say something like, '... the chances of another record breaking summer are quite low as we see it at the moment...'?

Well, it may be a low chance, but it's still a much higher chance than it would have been say 50 years ago. Perhaps that's why they are mentioning it.

[Costa Del Fal]

the statement of a 1 in 8 chance of a record summer equals about 12.5% chance of it happening. In other words its a small chance. I wonder if that is what they meant?

In an effort to be as simple as possible they have made, what as SM so succinctly comments, as a daft statement.

Why on earth say something like, '... the chances of another record breaking summer are quite low as we see it at the moment...'?

I agree. Anyway its not summer yet and it could all change.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am anticipating that the best/hottest spell for summer is latter July into 1st week of August when an early breakdown will lead to a thoroughly wet autumn. No record heat this year and the pattern that will emerge late summer I don't believe will be anything like 2006. I expect it to be much more unsettled. Time will tell though

BFTP

[Costa Del Fal]

Im quite Surprised so many are going for a Unsetteled Summer. I would have your hopes up high and just pray for a good summer!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I think the MetO seem to have set themselves up for misquotes and all sorts from the media with that kind of statement- a shame really, as their reputation tends to suffer because of what the media spout, rather than the (usually somewhat more accurate) predictions that the MetO are actually making.

I'm guessing that the MetO ran some of the advanced Hadley climate models and whatever other methods they use to formulate long-range forecasts, and 1 in 8 outputs suggested a record summer; I don't know, but that would be consistent with the prediction that was issued.

[Costa Del Fal]

I might as well have my hopes down then now.

[kold weather]

I just suspect they are covering their backs, its probably higher odds you'd get in a normal year but given the ongoing warmth I suppose its just a heads-up so to speak, not likely but far from impossible as well.

[jemtom]

I see no justification whatsoever for the MO to quote an 8/1 chance of the highest summer temp record being broken this year.

There is no statistical evidence to support this claim, therefore it amounts to little more more than guesswork and conjecture, probably with a liberal dose of marketing thrown in for good measure.

The fact that our climate is currently in a warming trend and we've had a very warm Spring to date does not mean a recording breaking hot Summer will automatically follow.

IMO the true meteorological odds of the record going this summer is around 30/1. However if the good fellows of a well known betting exchange are to be believed the odds of 100f being hit is as low as 2.3/1 - this sounds like a very poor bet to me and I shall be laying it accordingly with my hard earned.

Edited May 5, 2007 by jemtom

[summer blizzard]

If we devide the summer into nine, ten day periods (they said 8 but its easier), i think what they are saying is that there will be a period of around ten days, when record temperatures may be experienced, this seems plauable to me, and i would say that June is the most likely candidate.

[Stratos Ferric]

If we devide the summer into nine, ten day periods (they said 8 but its easier), i think what they are saying is that there will be a period of around ten days, when record temperatures may be experienced, this seems plauable to me, and i would say that June is the most likely candidate.

SB, I see where you're coming from but that's NOT what they're saying (I haven't seen the source so I don't know what they actually are saying, either, but I know that's not it). The winner of a horse race is the horse that crosses the line first, irrespective of the furlongs before the line, and the odds are on the outcome.

If the UKMO are saying 8/1 that somewhere during summer records will be broken then, given where we are now, this is ridiculously generous. If they're saying that the single record for highest temperature, or summer mean, will fall, then it's possibly not quite generous enough, but it's not far off it. Remember, re the latter, we are right now as warm as we have ever been, and by quite a margin. If you were an alien landing then the placement of a bet right now on the warmest ever summer would be more sensible than at any time in our measured history.

[jemtom]

If we devide the summer into nine, ten day periods (they said 8 but its easier), i think what they are saying is that there will be a period of around ten days, when record temperatures may be experienced, this seems plauable to me, and i would say that June is the most likely candidate.

I'm not really sure I follow your logic there SB , but thats hardly surprising as I'm not very bright.

To my way of thinking the record is statistically about a 1 in 100 event, so if you chuck some global warming into the mix, then add a bit of exagerated local warming for NW Europe you're down to around 30 or 40/1 in reality.

No doubt some bright spark will shot my theory full of holes, but that's how I see it.

Edited May 5, 2007 by jemtom

[johnholmes]

really I do despair of some of you ever actually reading what the original printed version from the Met O actually said.

this is the full text

News release

11 April 2007

Met Office forecast for Summer 2007

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.

The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.

The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on 4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.

Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can protect ourselves in hot weather.

Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly attributed excess deaths in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what the benefits of the service are, saying: "The very old and the very young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely to find their symptoms heightened."

The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May 2007.

this is the item so many are quoting

They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.

They do not enlarge on this so, as I've posted before, we are left to try and work out what they mean.

To me 1 in 8 is 12.5% of it happening. Or put another way 87.5% not happening. I have no idea if that is what they meant.

Their May 1 update said this, full text below

May 2007

Update to Met Office summer forecast

The Met Office issues a long-range forecast for the summer and then reviews it on a monthly basis. The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 30 May 2007.

thankfully they have dropped, what I and SF, have each suggested was a rather (daft he called it) me=not over sensible remark.

Now quite how that leads to splitting the summer into 8 segments is beyond me as are some other fairly esoteric ideas.

John

Edited May 5, 2007 by johnholmes

[jemtom]

Thanks for that John

I must confess to having not read the full text in finite detail, but the very fact they have dropped the 8/1 odds thingy in their latest release suggests they appear to accept it was a (quote) daft thing to propose in the first place.

I appreciate as an ex employee you hold the MO in high regard, I on the other have a completely opposing view, with their vague and ambiguous releases high on my list of things they do that rankle.

I hope in offering this opinion I'm not infringing any of the forum rules, nor offending you in any way, but if so I apologise in advance

.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well done John, and thank you. Their wording is still open to some interpretation, but assuming that they mean that the levels reached during 2003 and 2006 will be at least equalled, without considertion of duration, period averages, or any such, then I'd say 8-1 against is fairly generous: they've happened twice in four summers, and we're not obviously cooling (in fact we're a lot warmer now than we were in 2003) so something like 4-1, at the outside, would be my call. Where's Dawlish when we need him?

[johnholmes]

don't ask!

Thanks for that John

I must confess to having not read the full text in finite detail, but the very fact they have dropped the 8/1 odds thingy in their latest release suggests they appear to accept it was a (quote) daft thing to propose in the first place.

I appreciate as an ex employee you hold the MO in high regard, I on the other have a completely opposing view, with their vague and ambiguous releases high on my list of things they do that rankle.

I hope in offering this opinion I'm not infringing any of the forum rules, nor offending you in any way, but if so I apologise in advance

.

no offence at all JT.

I do despair of them myself sometimes!

[noggin]

IThe first (whilst providing a comforting old wives' tale) is untrue - certainly over short cycles - and even then would require an unchanging closed system: current conditions on earth are not unchanging. The second cannot be proven. You can wish it, but I'd like to see you prove it.

Thanks for the invitation, but "no thanks"!

Time will tell. We can only say what we think. None of us has a crystal ball, we just use what information we have from whatever source and we draw our own conclusions. Mine is as stated and I know I am in a minority but that's OK by me and it's just as OK by me for everyone else to have their own thoughts on the matter. It would be boring if we all had the same thoughts!

[damianslaw]

I don't expect a record breaking hot summer this year or 40 degrees being recorded, though as many have said an above average CET is almost a sure fire bet.

However, where i think this year may differ from last year is that i think we may see the hottest conditions and therefore warmest month of the year in August as opposed to July.

On rainfall and sunshine i have no idea, i hope though it is not a dry one..

[Costa Del Fal]

I don't expect a record breaking hot summer this year or 40 degrees being recorded, though as many have said an above average CET is almost a sure fire bet.

However, where i think this year may differ from last year is that i think we may see the hottest conditions and therefore warmest month of the year in August as opposed to July.

On rainfall and sunshine i have no idea, i hope though it is not a dry one..

Why you want it to be wet? Be Happy England has Sunny weather and is better than the continent sometimes! We should just send rain to you. Lol.

[Mark Bayley]

Why you want it to be wet? Be Happy England has Sunny weather and is better than the continent sometimes! We should just send rain to you. Lol.

I think what he means is not as dry as last year. Many plants died and grass turned yellow with hosepipe bans in the south. I don't want a repeat of that again. I don't want a wet summer however i would like to see rainfall around average than significantly below.

[Costa Del Fal]

Ok i would like a Repeat of Last year but enough rain to keep things alive.