Day 6 Discussion

[Roger J Smith]

If the team is in Salina at present time, expect tornadic cells in that area around 2 hours from now or 11:30 pm CDT (0430z).

The line of storms will probably peak in intensity in another hour or two, so it could become very severe -- let's hope tonight's tornadoes manage to miss towns, because I can see another F4-5 outbreak developing here given the look of the current radar and the 00z upper air soundings.

[pottyprof]

My thinking too Roger..

[NL]

When i got in touch with them i mentioned that i thought Salina would be in the direct path of these storms but i'm sure they'll know this, i hope!

[NL]

possible new developments south central Kansas...just in front of the main huge line of storms..

Wow. look at the developing new line of storms,growing incredibly quick..

[pottyprof]

Yes.. development.. that wasnt supposed to happen..........................

[NL]

This is gonna get a damn sight worse before it gets better.. The leading edge of the main storm line is 30-35 mile away from the centre of Salina...Hope they've planned for taking cover.. I'm sure they'll not put themselves in danger Paul will lead them to safety..

[pottyprof]

No danger from those cells.. its the ones from the south that i'm interested in..

[NL]

Just had Paul on the phone, They've just witnessed the most incredible supercell, couldnt make a lot out what he was saying as the reception was really bad, but they're ok and are currently at ellswood, at least it sounded like that, i aked if he was goin to Salina but we were cut off.. Could have been most likely Ellsworth..

Edited May 6, 2007 by Northern Light

[pottyprof]

Probably here NL

[Roger J Smith]

Just ran a time lapse radar, one tornadic cell went right over Ellsworth about 0300z or 10 pm CDT, another one is forming up just to the west of the city and heading in, looks very severe to me ... large tornado on ground reported with this approaching cell about a half hour back near Great Bend.

[pottyprof]

another one near great bend??

[NL]

Well i was close... ... Plus he's an essex boy and i'm a geordie so communication is somewhat limited!! ...

Think we'll see some stunning photo's tomorrow..

cell to the west of Hutchinson County is amplifying..

[pottyprof]

wayayeman.. *waves to all*

I'm offski.. regards to everyone..

[Roger J Smith]

NL, he may have been talking about earlier today and perhaps he was saying Ellinwood, that's another town that was hit by a tornado earlier on. We'll have to wait and see but in any case, this line of storms is beginning to evolve towards a meso-scale complex by the looks of things, so it would be dangerous to assume continued northeast motion of severe cells, there may be a tendency now for bow echo formation and squall-line development ... often this takes place around midnight local time which is 0500z.

[pottyprof]

Thanks Roger.. now i have to stay up .. git!!

[NL]

Lata Potty ,, ya part-timer.. ..

Thanks for that Roger, on ksn they were talking about the storms not really pushing at the moment sort of just hanging around.

[pottyprof]

its the hanging around thats just starting to take off.. I'm outta here..

[NL]

I'm absolutely shattered myself but dont want to miss anything!

[Paul Sherman]

Guys

We are currently in Ellsworth (Ks) taking a real battering from Tornadic Supercells, we had to drop south when I phoned Northern Light briefly at 9pm as we had a Tornadic Supercell heading right for Ellsworth, we parked up just east and filmed base after base with wall clouds and lowerings, drove through some pretty amazing damage today, was on the 1st cell and tracked that through the Pratt area, left that one and was on the Multiple Vortices just South of Wilson, gassed up and then chased another Tornadic cell, just North east of Great Bend, we have been chasing for nearly 12 hours solid now.

Have a few more severe cells heading straight at us.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Not to dodgy Paul night-chasing? I hear on ksn that theres dangerous CG lightning, and extremely heavy precipitation, out of these slow moving cells. severe wind gusts too!!

So what do you think of ya storm chasing venture Nathan?

[Roger J Smith]

Recent changes in the overall structure of this front -- first of all, the sector near Salina appears to be weakening while sectors to the northeast and southwest are strengthening. This may imply more violent weather moving towards chase team location in 2-3 hours from a southwesterly direction. Cells are currently near the OK-KS border south of Dodge City.

[NL]

Preliminary tornado reports since 6am there has been 88 tornadoes!!

[NL]

Looking forward to the photo's of those enormous supercells and multi vortices.. g'night

[tinybill]

moning guys

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/

just looked at a map looks like some parts are geting battered over night it must 3 am there. be safe out here guys

[kold weather]

88 tornadoes!

Well I suppose onvce again I'm not that suprised, this set-up a si said yestetrday is up there with the classics of all time, you guys couldn't have got over there at a much etter time IMO!

Anyway still decent actvity present even at this time of night with a few discrete cells in Texas to the SW of the frontal system which is lit up now like a xmas tree!

Given there is convergance now occuring along the frontal system this will probably help to pep up the systems again, esp on that NE side, with radar suggesting cloud tops of 40-50K with rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour with some places having had 9 inches of rain over the past 12hrs!

If you guys are still chasing, be careful at night given these supercells are highly tornadic thanks to the decent lower level shear and the HP storms will be extremely dangerous, but can't wait for the photos, should be magic!!!

You lucky lot!