Further evidence of potential THC Slow Down/Shut Down

[parmenides3]

SB: can you point to evidence that the current has slowed by 20% recently? PS: the 2003 Brydon et al paper doesn't count.

Likewise, what is the basis for saying that a 4C rise in temperature is the 'tipping point'? Why could it not be rather lower?

I know you are fond of the Gleissberg Minimum, which is due when? But why do you think this will coincide with a temp rise of 1.5-2.5C from GW, and why do you think it will cause a reduction in temperature in excess of around 6C?

Finally, it is important to remember that the MOC doesn't respond to changes like a tap being turned on or off; there is a huge amount of inertia in the system, and considerable internal variability, so it is reasonable to assume that, even if a switch-off were possible, it would be preceded by an intial slow-down, like a cruise liner slowing down...

:)P

[summer blizzard]

SB: can you point to evidence that the current has slowed by 20% recently? PS: the 2003 Brydon et al paper doesn't count.

Likewise, what is the basis for saying that a 4C rise in temperature is the 'tipping point'? Why could it not be rather lower?

I know you are fond of the Gleissberg Minimum, which is due when? But why do you think this will coincide with a temp rise of 1.5-2.5C from GW, and why do you think it will cause a reduction in temperature in excess of around 6C?

Finally, it is important to remember that the MOC doesn't respond to changes like a tap being turned on or off; there is a huge amount of inertia in the system, and considerable internal variability, so it is reasonable to assume that, even if a switch-off were possible, it would be preceded by an intial slow-down, like a cruise liner slowing down...

:)P

I'll find the links later...

Simple maths, 1C rise = 20% drop assumin current rate of melt...

100% = shutdown, obviously the current will slow before then or could even shutdown.

I think the period 1900-2100 will record a rise in temperature of between 1.5C to 2.5C, the Gleisenburg Minima will cause a drop to Little Ice Age levels, which were aroudn 2C below today, not 6C.

There is actually a sinkin zone in the western Meditterain which has increased in size and downwelling, it is effectively taking over.

[Guest Viking141]

Latest Gulf Stream velocities from DEOS

DEOS

[kippure]

Latest Gulf Stream velocities from DEOS

DEOS

Do the warm breaks in the current happen often? Are theses the areas where cold and warm are mixing?

[jethro]

Latest Gulf Stream velocities from DEOS

DEOS

Am I being really thick here....I've looked at the link and I can't see any discernable difference in the four images. Am I reading it wrong?

[noggin]

I can see breakages and joinings and colour changes, but don't know how to interpret it.

[BrickFielder]

At the top of the DEOS page is a previous maps link with details going back to 2003. The breaks look perfectly normal however south of the gulf stream tehre would appear to be more eddies which I am guessing may reflect warmer seas.

[Gray-Wolf]

So what happens if the surface SST's match the temps of the surface current? We are always being told about freshwater surface pooling and bottom freshening as the way to impact the current but what if the current is no warmer than the surrounding waters??? what then?

Because of the calibration glitch on the ARGO bouys we are only just getting reliable data from them they they seem to suggest that the North atlantic is warming to quite a depth (through mixing?) but the surface is always going to gain the most heat.

With less energy wasted on warming the 'deep' (because it is already warm) and the specific heat capacity of water helping maintain last years temps prior to the onset of another summer, we seem to be facing the prospect of an increasingly warm Atlantic year round.

Will this 'warming' negate the effects of the 'Gulf stream' by providing a broader warm pool to do it's job and drive more of the type of cyclogenesis we saw south of Greenland last winter?