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sarah7meme
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

hi Sarah

No one can even remotely give any realistic idea.

All any of us have is the GFS product which goes out, at the moment to the 5th.

Its record that far out is better than guess work but at times not by much.

Until we get within 7 days its really not sensible to give you a forecast.

Just look at the attempts to predict what next weekend, the Bank Holiday will be like, the forecast blog being done by me shows just how hard it is even that far ahead.

I've marked your date and will try and do one as soon as it seems likely to give any real idea of the weather.

sorry to be such a spoilsport.

regards

John

Edited by johnholmes
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
~LOL

I know it is too early, and as originally pointed out I am a pain in the butt but - if it wasn't important... I await a forecast nearer the time unless anyone fromt he other side can give guidance.

I have booked a perfect day :)

I tell you what I'm gonna have a BBQ at mine that day as I'm confident it will be good for it. :lol: :lol:

BFTP

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted
hi Sarah

No one can even remotely give any realistic idea.

All any of us have is the GFS product which goes out, at the moment to the 5th.

Its record that far out is better than guess work but at times not by much.

Until we get within 7 days its really not sensible to give you a forecast.

Just look at the attempts to predict what next weekend, the Bank Holiday will be like, the forecast blog being done by me shows just how hard it is even that far ahead.

I've marked your date and will try and do one as soon as it seems likely to give any real idea of the weather.

sorry to be such a spoilsport.

regards

John

thanks for noting the date in your diary - very kind of you :D

I tell you what I'm gonna have a BBQ at mine that day as I'm confident it will be good for it. :):D

BFTP

LOL :)

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted
I tell you what I'm gonna have a BBQ at mine that day as I'm confident it will be good for it. :):)

BFTP

If this were to come off which is highly doubtful at this long range :D the weekened looks very promising with HP building from the west/NW and pleasantly warm. :D

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted
If this were to come off which is highly doubtful at this long range :D the weekened looks very promising with HP building from the west/NW and pleasantly warm. :D

oooh very pretty!

i have bought umbrellas to sort of 'sods law' it into being nice that day! :)

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
If this were to come off which is highly doubtful at this long range :wallbash: the weekened looks very promising with HP building from the west/NW and pleasantly warm. B)

Typical! GFS taking the lead from me!!!! B)

BFTP

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

With low pressure anchored close to the SE and NNE winds, it doesn't look a particularly appealing chart for Folkestone to me.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
With low pressure anchored close to the SE and NNE winds, it doesn't look a particularly appealing chart for Folkestone to me.

Four days on and that chart will have HP elongated across the south with temps of 24c :drinks:

BFTP

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted

cam this be predicted yet / metcheck gives me results for my postcode of sunny and 22 degrees :nonono:

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

No way I'm afraid, not with the massive uncertainty at only a few days out. It won't be until around 31 May/1 June that we will have a good idea.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

as Ian saya Sarah, no reliable forecast at the moment, watch for trends with GFS, its quite good at 'spotting' trends, less so in accuracy for either temps or rainfall.

Take this weekend as an example.

Its been pretty obvious for a week or so that the weather would 'break down' over the weekend. detail, even for tomorrow is still not that sure of how much rain or just where the heaviest will be.

hope that helps give an understanding of the complexities.

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Snowyowl9 Veteran

Snowyowl9

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Posted

Still looks promising for June 9th with high pressure over the UK in a light east wind with temps of 17-20c which will probably be higher. :) detail will change though as ever.

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted
Still looks promising for June 9th with high pressure over the UK in a light east wind with temps of 17-20c which will probably be higher. :) detail will change though as ever.

woohoo!

that looks perfect !

I promise I will see who was nearest and post them chocolate! :)

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

yes, this far out, it does rather look like a dry day with a fair amount of sunshine and temps about 20C but with a cooling sea breeze its more likely to be 16-18C.

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted
yes, this far out, it does rather look like a dry day with a fair amount of sunshine and temps about 20C but with a cooling sea breeze its more likely to be 16-18C.

I REALLY HOPE SO! cool breeze is fab :)

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Yes; I have been getting together my upcoming long-range forecast, and the 9th June will probably be warm, sunny and dry for most with an easterly wind; the short track over the North Sea down in the south should keep coastal low cloud to a minimum. I agree with John that there will probably be a cool breeze taking the edge off the temperatures.

However, I envisage the weather turning more unsettled from the SW towards midmonth, so this is by no means certain.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
I REALLY HOPE SO! cool breeze is fab :)

Post #19

Cumulonimbus

Group: Members

Posts: 2,411

Joined: 5-November 04

From: Redhill, Surrey

Member No.: 1,849

QUOTE(sarah7meme @ 15 May 2007, 07:05 PM)

hi there, i am a pain and i am sure you are sick of people like me.... but i really need to know the expected forecast for june 9th and the probability of rain

to make this more competitive and interesting i promise to send the person who is closest on the day a chocolate bar of their choice!

Sarah7

How are you? I will sit in the hot seat. First half of June likely to be dry but not particuarly hot. I'd say 21-24c...you may have cooling breeze in Folkstone but reasonable sunshine. So 9th should be OK [perfect in my books] don't like it too hot.

BFTP

Sarah, some of us think we can forecast far ahead :D However, looking good at the mo :)

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted

well i am nervous now ! I am getting married you see and I am worried that marrying in wind or rain is a bad omen! i want it pleasantly warm - eg sleeveless weather, but not sweaty. i also want no or a slight sea breeze (can see sea from cliff church is on) . I bought a big ol umbrella though!!!

also - we are marrying on june 9th because i predicted weather would be good based on my technical facts that it is exam time - and its always hot during exams! lol

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

I've certainly come across a social convention that you are supposed to not want rain on your wedding day (some people I know were absolutely horrified when I suggested that if I had a wedding day in future, I'd quite like to celebrate it in sunshine and showers, or snow), and that might be why it's considered a bad omen.

However, in reality, I very much doubt that the weather type on one's wedding day has any significant bearing on the success of a marriage; it's just one of those unfounded superstitions.

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted

i agree, but it would be nice if it was a perfect day though!

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sarah7meme Rookie

sarah7meme

Posted
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: near folkestone 180 ASL
  • Author
Posted
Hi,

Forecast for folkestone 9th june

Max temp: 18c

Min temp: 13c

Pressure: 1021mb

Rainfall: 0.0mm

Cloud cover: 6%

Wind Direction: North West

Wind speed: 14mph

Weather: Sunny dry

Hope this help's :rolleyes:

you are really after the chocolate!!!

thanks a lot for this - how certain of this are you ? is it likely to change? :drinks:

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