forecast challenge

[Nick F]

Won't be long until Saturday 9th June comes into the edges of reality for making some reasonable prediction, but looking at the 12z GFS output, it looks like low pressure will be close over France and high pressure to the North, so an Easterly breeze, warm and sunny but always the risk of some thundery showers drifting over the Dover Straits from Nern France.

[sarah7meme]

many thanks

[sarah7meme]

Won't be long until Saturday 9th June comes into the edges of reality for making some reasonable prediction, but looking at the 12z GFS output, it looks like low pressure will be close over France and high pressure to the North, so an Easterly breeze, warm and sunny but always the risk of some thundery showers drifting over the Dover Straits from Nern France.

thanks - is it realistic to get a fair prediction yet?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

thanks - is it realistic to get a fair prediction yet?

Yes

Most of the week has HP to our north bringing easterly wind direction which will bring cloud to eastern coasts mainly in the morning but which might linger. There is lower pressure to the south and this may feed some showers to mainly SE areas mixed with drier interludes and temps around 23C...as predicted. By Friday there is rain appearing in the low [Germany/Holland /Belgium] and something to keep an eye on! but it looks like HP is the dominant factor and I'd say it is set fair with cloud and sun with temps of 22c.

BFTP

Edited June 3, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[richiec]

woohoo!

that looks perfect !

I promise I will see who was nearest and post them chocolate!

That will be the day we hit 100f again and it will melt in the post

Edited June 3, 2007 by richiec

[sarah7meme]

wine gums then? lol

Thanks BFTP

I never really know when 'Eastern coasts' are referred to if Folkestone falls into that category or not.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I very much agree, especially in the context of the current outlook, where winds look set to be south of due east. In a north-easterly you'd be more likely to see low cloud near all eastern coasts, but in an easterly or south-easterly, where the SE has a shorter sea track, eastern coasts are often dry and sunny but a bit cooler than areas further inland. It's the same consideration that often means that in a winter SE'ly, south-eastern areas are much colder than north-eastern areas but fewer showers develop over the North Sea.

[Nick F]

Looks dry and sunny for East Kent on the latest GFS run for next Saturday, any showers look to develop Westwards inland with the coasts staying fine. Sea mist maybe be a problem in early June with moist onshore winds rolling in over the cool Channel waters cooling to their dew point, winds are forecast from the South next Sat, for example satellite images today show sea fog/mist through the Dover Straits with a SE wind. If the air is dry, fog shouldn't be a problem.

[sarah7meme]

thanks !

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

thanks !

Correct Folkestone is not classed as eastern coast, my last line sums up what I think will and thought would happen.

BFTP......enjoy your day....it will fly past.

[sarah7meme]

thank you

dads gonna be complaining that its too hot lol

hopefully a bit of sweat will help the dress stay on too - as i got fitted yesterday and Ive lost weight!

[PB22]

Its still a tough one to call, with pressure looking like it will be falling next weekend as a thundery low begins to move northwards. You may well be ok though in Kent as traditionally a lot of the rain and storms tend to go across the west country when we are under a northeasterly flow.

[Snowyowl9]

many thanks

As a few have said if any thundery showers appear they`ll pop up inland and here and you`ll stay dry and still got those pleasant temps around 20/22c...don`t want it hot, hottest wedding I`ve been to it was 32c which was in the in the early 90`s.

Have a great day anyway.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

[sarah7meme]

bump

[Zenarcher]

A updated forecast

Min: temp 12c

Max: temp 18c

Rainfall: 0.0mm

Pressure 1020mb

Wind direction: north west

Wind speed: 12mph

Weather: sunny

[PB22]

Looks like you may well be ok Sarah. Chance of thundery showers Friday, but Saturday is looking fine and dry as it stands.

[sarah7meme]

B)

[sarah7meme]

oh my god - its a monsoon out there! think i am gonna cry! if it stops the ground will be sodden anyway!

whats going on?!?!

need honesty - is it gonna be bad at 3pm tomorrow? B)

[frozencanals]

Good Luck and enjoy the big day what ever the weather

[Cymru]

Good luck, Sarah. Hope the weather stays fine for you, but whatever it does I hope you enjoy your big day

[Thundery wintry showers]

It looks like being dry but rather claggy/cloudy to me from the latest outputs, the heavy rain should clear away today.

[grab my graupel]

Best Wishes for your wedding tomorrow Sarah

Hope that you have a wonderful day

Hope that you will be able to join us all on here again after your wedding.

Brian.

[stormchaser1]

Best wishes to Sarah for today

Nigel

[PB22]

All the best Sarah! :blush:

Should be mostly dry today with some sunshine, but the odd shower cannot be ruled out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

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QUOTE(Paul B @ 9 Jun 2007, 06:12 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

All the best Sarah!

Should be mostly dry today with some sunshine, but the odd shower cannot be ruled out.

Mixture of cloud and sunshine with temps in low 20s.......now where did I read that Good luick Sarah. Now how big a netweatherer are you? Will you sneak a peep today?

BFTP