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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire

    Good luck with the forecast Ian, most of which I would concur with - particulalry this being an SSTA-driven Summer pattern.

    One of the main issues will be the relative strength and positioning of the sub-tropical high pressure systems. The baroclinic responses are complicated by the cold-warm couplets at play in the Atlantic right now.

    I'll release my Summer forecast in the next week or so (so I can see where La Nina and polar anomalies are going) - but my thoughts so far would be of a complex high pressure arrangement in the Atlantic.

    Composite reanalysis suggests a strong Bermuda High slightly displaced east and north. This will infer a high degree of phasing with the jetstream and ridge development in the central Atlantic which could extend to the eastern Atlantic IF there is a high degree of momentum. We are now in an easterly phase QBO and this might inhibit high level zonal winds however.

    We also see a large pool of warm anomalies directly over the Azores - in contrast to many of the last few years so my incling is for the Azores High to be strong and slightly displaced east towards Iberia - not the UK.

    However, there will likely be a low pressure response in the central northern Atlantic and, allied to the SSTAs of the last few months, will favour high pressure development directly over the UK. I Would agree with your assessment (or inference) of some less settled phases of weather - particulalry in the north - more akin to an average type summer but with an overall CET out-turn above average. There is also a possibility that we might get a re-run of 1995 based on the SSTA right now.

    Once agian, best of luck, let's hope it pans out this way.

    GP

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Hi GP and also well done Ian.

    made a post in the summer thread which also contains my forecast (only outline, will do a real one later on)

    In terms of 1995- I think out of all the years we've had its 95 that is the closest match to 07 so far, its not perfect by any means but global patterns have IMO being very close. As for La Nina, I'm still not sure that it'll actually form IMO because the western side of the Pacific still has some above average subsurface temps which indicates to me that we are in a neutral spell though it'll probably just about make it to weak La Nina, in a practical sense it won't make a bit of difference when the SSTA in the Atlantic will drive the pattern. Also i suspect the hurricane season and the tracks of the hurricanes could end up being rather close to 1995 as well though a few less re-curves and a few less storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

    Well done Ian, a good forecast. I also like the new format. I think it's better that seasonal forecasts are updated regularly.

    :)

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  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    Hi GP and also well done Ian.

    made a post in the summer thread which also contains my forecast (only outline, will do a real one later on)

    In terms of 1995- I think out of all the years we've had its 95 that is the closest match to 07 so far, its not perfect by any means but global patterns have IMO being very close. As for La Nina, I'm still not sure that it'll actually form IMO because the western side of the Pacific still has some above average subsurface temps which indicates to me that we are in a neutral spell though it'll probably just about make it to weak La Nina, in a practical sense it won't make a bit of difference when the SSTA in the Atlantic will drive the pattern. Also i suspect the hurricane season and the tracks of the hurricanes could end up being rather close to 1995 as well though a few less re-curves and a few less storms.

    I would love an 1995 like August and September. A hot August great, but a hot September is a big no no!

    :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Love the forecast, my only little gripe is the lack of rain. Look forward to the heat :D

    Regards,

    Russ

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