June C.E.T

[Nick H]

Lots of bandwagons there. Lol.

[summer blizzard]

13C: Noggin

14.7C: Fishdude

14.9C: Optimus Prime

14.9C: Mr Data

15.1C: Mark Bayley

15.1C: Tamara G

15.1C: The PIT

15.3C: Steve B

15.4C: Snowmaiden

15.4C: Geordie Snow

15.4C: Kold Weather

15.4C: Beng

15.5C: Snowyowl9

15.9C: Norrance

16.1C: Summer Blizzard

17.2C: Gavin P

The average for June is 14.1C..

My prediction for June is a very warm 16.1C, while i expect the first week to be quite cool, i expect a warmup from there on..

[Don]

I'm going for a June CET of 15.7C.

[Vince]

im going for a searingly hot June to make up for the rank May ,and pray to the lord it comes true

just to send the coldies packing ,im going for

a CET of 18.5 and yes remember i got the April one right........................................

many nights above 70f and a max of 36 degrees on the 26th

[Don]

im going for a searingly hot June to make up for the rank May ,and pray to the lord it comes true

just to send the coldies packing ,im going for

a CET of 18.5 and yes remember i got the April one right........................................

many nights above 70f and a max of 36 degrees on the 26th

I hope it's not that warm, although it wouldn't suprise me that much I have to say!

[PersianPaladin]

For all those punting, I would wait a few days yet. There is considerable model uncertainty in the Euros as well as the GFS for the months end....all of which could have consequences for the first-half of June imo.

Edited May 21, 2007 by PersianPaladin

[Don]

For all those punting, I would wait a few days yet. There is considerable model uncertainty in the Euros as well as the GFS for the months end....all of which could have consequences for the first-half of June imo.

Too late!

[osmposm]

No, it's all right Don - you're allowed to change it up to the deadline (midnight 31st). Mind you, don't do it too often - it's a difficult enough job collating the info without everyone chopping and changing....not that I've had to do it recently!

On which subject, a gentle reminder to those kind and hard-working souls who vie with each other to put together the final list - it's much easier for Stratos to process the information when the temps are listed first (all aligned on the left), the name of the guesser second (also aligned on the left) - in fact, exactly as SB did it on the first provisional list yesterday.

[Optimus Prime]

The warmest June ever was 1846 with 18.2 and is 4.1c above normal. 1976 has only come close recently at 17.0c. The second warmest being 1676 at 18.0c.

I can't see 18.2c being beaton for a long time. It's a remarkable figure that would take a remarkable heatwave to achieve. In fact I find it so remarkable and can't really believe the figures are particularily true.

[Uncle_Barty]

13.1c and very wet and dull

[eddie]

13.1c and very wet and dull

That's quite a brave prediction given the warming we have seen recently! You have to go back to 1991 for a June colder that that.

[damianslaw]

I expect another above average month, hardly surprising however, no more than 1 degree above and no less than 0.5 degrees above so somewhere say 0.8 degrees above average.

I don't expect any record temperatures

[Nick H]

It's a remarkable figure that would take a remarkable heatwave to achieve. In fact I find it so remarkable and can't really believe the figures are particularily true.

I do agree, I find some of the CET figures from the 18th century and early 19th century very suspect to be honest. People say the CET is the longest-running temperature series record in the world - well that's true, but you really have to flag with big question marks some of the numbers.

I imagine the early records consist of what today would be non-standard sites, the science was not as well understood back then as it now, and remember that mercury only became to be widely used as a measuring gauge from the mid-19th century. Prior to that, they would use all kinds of suspect liquids: gin, vodka, you name it.

[osmposm]

......I find some of the CET figures from the 18th century and early 19th century very suspect to be honest.......remember that mercury only became to be widely used as a measuring gauge from the mid-19th century.....

You raise an interesting question, Nick, and I certainly agree about non-standard sites, and the accuracy of thermometer readings from the 17th/early 18th Centuries.

However, you'll find things were getting much more accurate about a hundred years before you think - certainly mercury had pretty much superceded variable-quality alcohol by the mid-18th Century, not the 19th, so I'd guess that the 1846 figure, though amazing, is pretty reliable.

Have a loook here for a good potted history of thermometers and temp scales: http://chemeducator.org/sbibs/s0005002/spapers/520088jw.htm

Gilbert White, in his discussion of the extreme cold of Dec 1784 (in "The Natural History of Selborne"), shows how seriously and carefully an 18th Century observer strove to compare and calibrate readings from three different (certainly mercury-filled) thermometers from three different top-quality makers. He recorded a temp of -1^oF (below -18^oC) at 11pm on the night of the 9th, incidentally - that's in Hampshire in early December!

The quest for meteorological accuracy has a long and noble record.

(Um, sorry, mods - gone way off-topic. But interesting, I hope.)

Edited May 24, 2007 by osmposm

[Anti-Mild]

I'm afraid that even with my cold leanings I cannot see anything other than yet another above average month:

15.0c

[Optimus Prime]

Although the start of June looks pretty cool it doesn't mean it won't be a record warm month. The start of June 2005 was very cold with local stations breaking record low minima but the very warm second half made up for it and more.

Despite that cold first half the CET rose to 15.5c. 1.4c above normal and only a tad cooler then 2006 and 2003 since 1976.

[Stu_London]

14.7C

[cheeky_monkey]

14.4c please

[summer blizzard]

13C: Noggin

13.1C: Jim AFCB

14.4C: Cheeky Monkey

14.7C: Fishdude

14.7C: Stu London

14.9C: Optimus Prime

14.9C: Mr Data

15C: Anti-Mild

15.1C: Mark Bayley

15.1C: Tamara G

15.1C: The PIT

15.3C: Steve B

15.4C: Snowmaiden

15.4C: Geordie Snow

15.4C: Kold Weather

15.4C: Beng

15.5C: Snowyowl9

15.7C: Don

15.9C: Norrance

16.1C: Summer Blizzard

17.2C: Gavin P

18.5C: Vince

Optimus Prime, the second half of June 2005 was spectacular, easily the hottsest since 1976, 9 of the last 13 days of June recorded maxima of 30C or above.

Edited May 26, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Supercell 89]

The Second half of June 2005 was amazing wish we could have a whole month like that, even though temps didnt get above 27c (and that was only on one day, it was mostly 24-25c) we had the most speactacular thundery outbreak i've ever witnessed had nearly two inches of rainfall that day, nearly one inch fell in 25 minutes! and not only that we were pounded with six thunderstorms in a day!

A record still to be beaten and i doubt it will be, and we still hit 24c and it wasnt even sunny.

As for this June i think its gonna be very warm at times indeed, early and late i think we will see two big heatwaves, with max temps hitting around 32c-34c and quite widely as well and some big storms as well for some areas, sounds abit farfetched, but i have a strong hunch :wub:

For the C.E.T never done this as i dont do it with my station (i do maximum temperature averages) i reckon it'll be 16.9c.

22.7c for my Maximum Temperature.

[sundog]

i admit i havent a clue how june will turn out, a few weeks ago i was thinking it might be the most above average month of the summer but now im not so sure. however im sure the above average theme will continue so anyway i will go for 15.3c although a few weeks ago i would have gone for higher.

[HighPressure]

I am sticking with the theme of our weather becoming more continental so going for the Paris mean 16.9oC for me.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

my guess this month: 16.1C

I'm surprised the May Metcheck CET is 0.9C above average -what with the frequency of fresh northerly winds this month.

I'll guess the warm north sea raises the baseline 1C... and they'll be one period of sustained, hot sunny weather in June. Not a classic but sunnier than this month

2C above average.

Edited May 27, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Iceberg]

I've not entered this for awhile, but have some strong feelings on the upcoming summer (i.e I think it will be another record breaker), At least a +1 C looks a dead cert so I am going for some where between 1 or 2 above that giving a rough 16.6C. and a total of between 2C and 3C above average.

[Mammatus]

June CET Temp 16.4C