June C.E.T

[PB22]

I will go for 15.8C.

[Duncan McAlister]

16C, and I think the second half will be scorching.

3 out of 4 guesses within 0.5C

Edited May 31, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[reef]

15.6°C. I cant see an exceptionally hot month as the pattern isnt quite right at the moment, but after what looks like a warm first week or so it seems unlikely we'll see a sufficient correction to bring the month close to average.

[WBSH]

I'm not copying Reef but I am going for 15.6c as well.

That was my guess before I saw Reef's prediction! ... honest.

[Thundery wintry showers]

just a sideline question on that...

if things continued on that level, what would the CET for 2007 be at ?

11.8C is 2.3 above the 1961-90 average.

[Terminal Moraine]

I think it will be an unsettled month but as I can't imagine a colder than average month in these torrid times I'll go for

14.6c.

T.M

[Kentish Man]

My guess is 14.5C

[Glacier Point]

Just as in May, the underlying variables remain the same:

• No polar height anomalies in the upper atmosphere;
  
• Indeterminate ENSO state;
  
• SSTA driven pattern likely to prevail.
  

For May I suggested the anomaly range to be +1 to +2, shame I plumped for the higher end but with the SSTAs around the UK of a similar value, this is where we should once agin be looking.

As we progress through the month, there should be a building of a substantial high pressure centred close to or just west of the UK which is likely to lead to warm days and cool nights. Reanalysis of the last three years under similar conditions puts up some warmth in the west and cool in the east.

With some warmth projected for next week, we're likely to start on an above average footing and this will tip us towards the upper end of the range but not as far as the GFS would currently have us believe...

15.3 C for me please

[Pudsey]

I'll try 15.7C

[West is Best]

16.4C

[The underwriter]

In a similar vein to May, I think there will be some wet spells which will keep the average down a bit. I'm going for 15.2.

[Stratos Ferric]

I do agree, I find some of the CET figures from the 18th century and early 19th century very suspect to be honest. People say the CET is the longest-running temperature series record in the world - well that's true, but you really have to flag with big question marks some of the numbers.

I imagine the early records consist of what today would be non-standard sites, the science was not as well understood back then as it now, and remember that mercury only became to be widely used as a measuring gauge from the mid-19th century. Prior to that, they would use all kinds of suspect liquids: gin, vodka, you name it.

I think you'll find that Hadley cross referenced when he did the original research. It would be remarkable indeed for several sites ALL to make the same degree of error in the sae direction at the same time. It's possible that there's the odd tenth of a degree margin, but it's very unlikely to be significant once you enter the period where the values are cited to 0.1C.

Decisions, decisions...the SSTs are now as low as I can remember them for a long time, not just in the NA but also widely across the Pacific, and still the monthly outturns are above par. After April's drought we were overdue a correction, and now after a long run of coolish and unsettled weather I expect a flip the other way during June. My instinct is low 16s, however I keep ignoring instinct - painfully so last month, but I can't see the same sort of cold nights this coming month as we had last. Therefore my punt for June is...

16.0C

Edited May 31, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[North-Easterly Blast]

Stratos Ferric;

This May has been very unsettled but hardly what I would call coolish. The May CET is likely to be around 12.0*C, which is about average for a post 1997 May, but still 0.7*C above par by the long term 30 year 71-00 average, so this May has been nothing that can even be reasonably described as cool by recent standards!

[Lettucing Gutted]

If todays warm spell sets the scene for this June than I think it is safe to say that Britain is "Into the frying pan and into the fire" as rock singer Meat Loaf would say.

[North-Easterly Blast]

As June is still a transitional month as regards temperature, and the end of the month should be expected to be warmer than the start, I have a question for Kevin B (Mr Data), as to the years in the past where Junes had a cooler second half compared to the first half? I believe last year was one, and 2004 certainly was, and 1997.

[Weather-history]

As June is still a transitional month as regards temperature, and the end of the month should be expected to be warmer than the start, I have a question for Kevin B (Mr Data), as to the years in the past where Junes had a cooler second half compared to the first half? I believe last year was one, and 2004 certainly was, and 1997.

Since 1870

1883, 1885, 1896, 1900, 1907, 1911, 1915, 1917, 1918, 1919, 1922, 1925, 1931, 1933

1937, 1939, 1940, 1950, 1958, 1963, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1993, 1997

2004, 2006

[noggin]

June has often had quite cool and/or wet spells in the past. I remember quite often, people saying "flaming June, again", in a sarcastic and long-suffering way!

[parmenides3]

er... late again. but I have an excuse; we've been on holiday for the past week and haven't had access, so I'm going to request that I don't get even more penalty points this month, on the grounds that I couldn't enter before the deadline.

Guess for June: 15.9C . SSTA has dropped a bit, the effect of last autumn's ENSO has now worn off. OTOH, the continent looks warm, and any shift from the westerly pattern to a southerly could take temps to a really high level, so it's a bit of a gamble.

[summer blizzard]

13C: Noggin

13.1C: Jim AFCB

14.2C: Eddie

14.3C: Paul Carfoot

14.4C: Cheeky Monkey

14.5C: Snowfluff

14.5C: Mk13

14.7C: Fishdude

14.7C: Stu London

14.8C: Stargazer

14.9C: Optimus Prime

14.9C: Mr Data

14.9C: Somerset Squall

15C: Anti-Mild

15C: Kold Weather

15C: Blast From The Past

15.1C: Mark Bayley

15.1C: Tamara G

15.1C: The PIT

15.1C: Sunshine

15.1C: Sub Zero

15.1C: Great Plum

15.2C: Jhon Acc

15.2C: The Penguin

15.3C: Steve B

15.3C: Sundog

15.3C: Jemtom

15.4C: Snowmaiden

15.4C: Geordie Snow

15.4C: Beng

15.4C: Soaring Hawk

15.4C: Bottesford

15.5C: Snowyowl9

15.5C: David Snow

15.5C: Magpie

15.7C: Don

15.8C: Vizzy2004

15.8C: Village Plank

15.9C: Norrance

16C: Cymru

16C: Ukmoose

16.1C: Summer Blizzard

16.1C: Atlantic Flamethrower

16.2C: Windswept

16.3C: Calrissian

16.4C: Mammatus

16.4C: Gray-Wolf

16.6C: Iceberg

16.9C: Ashley Nelis

16.9C: High Pressure

17.2C: Gavin P

18.5C: Vince

19C: Craig Evans

24.5C: Disco-Barry

I am afraid i was only able to finish page 5, i will update the rest later..

[Filski]

Total stab in the dark. 15.7C

[West is Best]

19C: Craig Evans

24.5C: Disco-Barry

I am afraid i was only able to finish page 5, i will update the rest later..

Well done with all you and Jackone do. Looking forward to seeing my 16.4 appear in due course.

Just replying because I can't help but laugh my socks off at these last two punts. Disco-Barry's is a classic!

[Nick H]

24.5C: Disco-Barry

With apologies to Mr Data, I nearly spilt my Gewurtztraminer all over my keyboard there....

[Calrissian]

If its anything above 20.0c this June, I would prepare for the sea levels to 'jump'

Calrissian: 16.3 for June (reasonable attempt?)

[osmposm]

er... late again. but I have an excuse; we've been on holiday for the past week and haven't had access, so I'm going to request that I don't get even more penalty points this month, on the grounds that I couldn't enter before the deadline.

I think that's among the feeblest excuses I've ever heard, P - the thread's been open since May 20th! I seem to remember UKMoose or someone once having to file in the previous month's thread as he was going away for weeks and weeks.

In fact it's so pathetic I think you should be docked an extra 5 points for outrageous nerve. :lol:

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Hello all,

I am now back from fortnight trip to the USA and as I arrived yesterday morning after a long flight i have been unable to post my CET prediction. But now, fully recovered I feel you could find room within your hearts to allow me to enter this competition two days beyond the entry deadline. So if you can find that space then I would like my CET prediction to come in at 15.8. My June forecast will be produced today and will be placed on my blog and also on the 'summer 2007 thoughts' topic.

Many Thanks

SNOW-MAN2006