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June C.E.T


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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Well amazingly there are 55 members so far on Summer Blizzards list there (not counting the rest if there ae more)

Overall the mean average for all of them put together is 15.62c So expect it to be a warm month overall.

Lowest 13.0c

Highest 24.5c

Was only a year ago when only a few of us were doing it.

GFS indicated the CET by the 5th will be 15.1c. Which is 2.5c above average for the first half of June.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Well amazingly there are 55 members so far on Summer Blizzards list there (not counting the rest if there ae more)

Overall the mean average for all of them put together is 15.62c So expect it to be a warm month overall.

Lowest 13.0c

Highest 24.5c

Was only a year ago when only a few of us were doing it.

GFS indicated the CET by the 5th will be 15.1c. Which is 2.5c above average for the first half of June.

Indeed there are more.

My punt of 14.7c is on page 6 and there are others too.

Hopefully the full list will appear soon to include all entries.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

13C: Noggin

13.1C: Jim AFCB

14.2C: Eddie

14.3C: Paul Carfoot

14.4C: Cheeky Monkey

14.5C: Snowfluff

14.5C: Mk13

14.5C: Kentish Man

14.6C: Terminal Moraine

14.7C: Fishdude

14.7C: Stu London

14.7C: Phil N.Warks.

14.7C: The Calm Before The Storm

14.8C: Stargazer

14.8C: Snowray

14.9C: Optimus Prime

14.9C: Mr Data

14.9C: Somerset Squall

14.9C: Ghrud

15C: Anti-Mild

15C: Kold Weather

15C: Blast From The Past

15C: Acbrixton

15.1C: Mark Bayley

15.1C: Tamara G

15.1C: The PIT

15.1C: Sunshine

15.1C: Sub Zero

15.1C: Great Plum

15.2C: Jhon Acc

15.2C: The Penguin

15.2C: Mark H

15.2C: Joneseye

15.2C: The Underwriter

15.3C: Steve B

15.3C: Sundog

15.3C: Jemtom

15.3C: Jackone

15.3C: Osmposm

15.3C: Glacier Point

15.4C: Snowmaiden

15.4C: Geordie Snow

15.4C: Beng

15.4C: Soaring Hawk

15.4C: Bottesford

15.5C: Snowyowl9

15.5C: David Snow

15.5C: Magpie

15.5C: Thundery Wintry Showers

15.6C: Reef

15.6C: WBSH

15.7C: Don

15.7C: Mac

15.7C: Pudsey

15.8C: Vizzy2004

15.8C: Village Plank

15.8C: Bessy

15.8C: Paul B

15.9C: Norrance

16C: Cymru

16C: Ukmoose

16C: Duncan McAlister

16C: Strattos Ferric

16.1C: Summer Blizzard

16.1C: Atlantic Flamethrower

16.2C: Windswept

16.3C: Calrissian

16.3C: Summer of 95

16.4C: West Is Best

16.4C: Mammatus

16.4C: Gray-Wolf

16.6C: Iceberg

16.9C: Ashley Nelis

16.9C: High Pressure

17.2C: Gavin P

17.4C: Roger J Smith

18.5C: Vince

19C: Craig Evans

24.5C: Disco-Barry

15.9C: Parmenides3 2days l8

15.7C: Filski

Done lol

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

You're a star, SB !

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I went for 15.7C not 15.5.

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Posted
  • Location: Barkingside, Essex
  • Location: Barkingside, Essex
I'm going for 17.4, one of the warmest Junes on record but not quite a challenger for 1846.

Fairly dry in general but expect some hefty and possibly severe storms around 15th-16th and again near the end of the month.

hmmmm , yes 1846... 18.2, the outcry at the time... " CLOSE ALL THE FACTORIES" nasty industry causing global warming....... :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Think im too late to enter for this, but if not (by miracle) 15.2

Think itll be a moderately warm month anyhow, although nothing special in all honesty.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

i think around 17.2c if the warm spell forecast by TWO hapenens midmonth

As someone else has already quoted i wouldn't put my money on the TWO forecast, i have stopped looking at it as it has been wrong so many times in recent months.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

Morning All!

3 days in and the following stats are taken from Phillip Eden http://www.climate-uk.com :

CET: (Jun 1- 3): 16.0°C (+2.9 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1- 3): 0.4mm ( 6 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1- 3): 27.8hr (145 per cent)

and the all important N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.86°C (difference from average June CET is 1.76°C)

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Wow, i did not expect such a warm start, though minima may drag the figger down this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like if the models are close I'm going to be a good 1-1.5C below the actual CET come to the 15th, a relaly tasty looking set-up up till the 15th looking at the models. Right now I'll guess the likely CET between 15.5-17C. A long way out but i can't see the CET being dragged down enough in the second half of June to go below 15.5C given the warm-very warm first 10-15 days that are likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
Looks like if the models are close I'm going to be a good 1-1.5C below the actual CET come to the 15th, a relaly tasty looking set-up up till the 15th looking at the models. Right now I'll guess the likely CET between 15.5-17C. A long way out but i can't see the CET being dragged down enough in the second half of June to go below 15.5C given the warm-very warm first 10-15 days that are likely.

Plus the fact that in ten days' time the rest of the month will look very different.

Wow, i did not expect such a warm start, though minima may drag the figger down this week.

Not unless the CET zone is extended to include the British Antarctic territories.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Plus the fact that in ten days' time the rest of the month will look very different.

Not unless the CET zone is extended to include the British Antarctic territories.

or Scotland

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK

Hmm, well according to Mr Eden (listening to him on Five live), we're at 16.2 C now.

A 17.5+c June would certainly be a real surprise, even for me, but its looking real possible now.

Calrissian: his yearly CET is right on target :(

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
hmmmm , yes 1846... 18.2, the outcry at the time... " CLOSE ALL THE FACTORIES" nasty industry causing global warming....... :(

It's true that 1846 was a very warm year (CET 10.15), and would have been exceptionally so - perhaps 10.4 or 10.5 - had it not been for a bitterly cold December (O.5).

The big difference is that, unlike today, the previous decade had not been noticeably warm at all...and neither, as it turned out, was the subsequent decade. And when did we last have a bitterly cold anything? In the decade before 1846 there were nine winter months with a sub 2.0 CET, four of them between zero and 1.0, and one well below zero. It's been sixteen years since we even had one under 2.0.

1846 - and especially June that year - was a flash in the pan. Unhappily today it looks like we have become the bloody pan itself.

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire

As Calrissian stated:

CET: (Jun 1- 4): 16.2°C (+3.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1- 4): 1.5mm ( 16 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1- 4): 28.3hr (112 per cent)

Figures taken from Philip Eden http://www.climate-uk.com

The current N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.62°C (difference from average June CET is 1.52°C).

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
As Calrissian stated:

CET: (Jun 1- 4): 16.2°C (+3.0 degC)

E&W Rain: (Jun 1- 4): 1.5mm ( 16 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Jun 1- 4): 28.3hr (112 per cent)

Figures taken from Philip Eden http://www.climate-uk.com

The current N-W UK tracker figure for June 2007 is: 15.62°C (difference from average June CET is 1.52°C).

I must admit I a surprised by that figure...but it is the CET.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: W. Northants
  • Location: W. Northants

It always looked to me like June would be the warmest (compared to average) month of the summer. I think July and AUgust will also be warmer than average, but I don't think the anomoly will be as great as June. Infact depending on how La Nina and other Atlantic SST's play out, I think August could come out very slightly under par.

Edited by Gavin P
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

On the Tyne & Wear coast, temperatures have so far been below average, illustrating the large localised differences you can get when considering a very small portion of a month.

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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk

Hadley have it as 15.7 to the 4th, so I am very surprised by Phillips readings to the 4th - certainly did not expect a rise from the 3rd to the 4th with maxima down on preceeding days, the minima figre just looks rather higher than I thought it was, but there you go.

Looks like the end of this week and the weekend will see the most fat put on the figure, with the current outloook for a fall away after then.

Naturally I expect we'll get some early month debate after that comment about lurches, jumps, leaps and other such errata.

Brave call from people saying after 4 days that such and such looks a good bet.

Not the coldest on record is my call.

Nor the warmest - there's something very wrong if maxima in the low 20s can produce record months in summer

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
Hadley have it as 15.7 to the 4th, so I am very surprised by Phillips readings to the 4th - certainly did not expect a rise from the 3rd to the 4th with maxima down on preceeding days, the minima figre just looks rather higher than I thought it was, but there you go.

Looks like the end of this week and the weekend will see the most fat put on the figure, with the current outloook for a fall away after then.

Naturally I expect we'll get some early month debate after that comment about lurches, jumps, leaps and other such errata.

Brave call from people saying after 4 days that such and such looks a good bet.

Not the coldest on record is my call.

Nor the warmest - there's something very wrong if maxima in the low 20s can produce record months in summer

The CET zone seems to cover areas well away from the East Coast so that in the current synoptic setup places like East Anglia, Kent and more especially north eastern areas which are recording average or below average temps are not influencing the CET figures which therefore seem a little high. Conversely in westerly situations I am surprised how often the CET remains static despite places in the sheltered east recording higher temps which you think would nudge it up.

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Posted
  • Location: Norfolk
  • Location: Norfolk
The CET zone seems to cover areas well away from the East Coast so that in the current synoptic setup places like East Anglia, Kent and more especially north eastern areas which are recording average or below average temps are not influencing the CET figures which therefore seem a little high. Conversely in westerly situations I am surprised how often the CET remains static despite places in the sheltered east recording higher temps which you think would nudge it up.

yes but western areas should be seeing lower minima than eastern surely and we are recording 10 or so in general?? The overnight for the 3rd to the 4th was something like 14 degrees on Manley which was a surprise.

Just seems a very high CET reading for what is nothing more than a pleasantly warm summer spell with no real heat involved. Must be too used to it

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