Virtual Storm Chase 2

[pottyprof]

Well, with all the team safely home, I thought we could have a nice new shiny thread

If you missed the team in the states, you can read all about their adventures here.

Some nice cells have grown nicely over this evening through Kansas and Nebraska

Current tornado warning..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS

527 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

NORTHEASTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 526 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD

NEAR SAINT PETER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

SAINT PETER AROUND 535 PM CDT...

MORLAND AROUND 555 PM CDT...

PENOKEE AROUND 600 PM CDT...

HILL CITY AROUND 610 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 109 AND 113.

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO HAS BEEN OBSERVED OR INDICATED

BY RADAR. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A

SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AND COVER UP.

LAT...LON 3912 10031 3898 10016 3943 9961 3953 9989

$$

CLK

Radar...

Latest satellite...

[pottyprof]

Looking like things are busy in the Colorado/Kansas border area..

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO

437 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007

COC039-073-292300-

/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070529T2300Z/

LINCOLN CO-ELBERT CO-

437 PM MDT TUE MAY 29 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT FOR EAST

CENTRAL ELBERT AND NORTH CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 437 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO

INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LIMON...OR ABOUT OVER LIMON. THIS STORM WAS

MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

LIMON AND GENOA.

AT 430 PM MDT...A SPOTTER IN LIMON REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAD

BLANKETED THE GROUND.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING

FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3941 10385 3914 10385 3916 10349 3945 10348

[Paul Sherman]

Could be a Very Busy Day and the last time a Moderate was in this exact area was 4th May. Hopefully towns will be spared if any Tornadoes become violent, looks good for some cracking Supercells & Large Hail with Tornadoes

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

3 More Slight Risk days and then things get even more interesting!!

Sorely Tempted Now !!

I Think my Visa Card wants to Play!!

Paul Sherman

[pottyprof]

Aye.. Max it out..

It is looking like a good set up. I think I'd be tempted too... Maybe OK could see something this time??

[Roger J Smith]

As I posted elsewhere, research variables pointing to a monster severe weather outbreak across the northern plains states and parts of southern prairies in Canada, 13 to 16 June from west to east. You can get very cheap flights to Calgary if you shop around this early in the summer, would seem like a good staging point for this event, would advise 11-18 as the time window for the flights in and out. I am working Mondays to Fridays in June and taking my holidays in July, but thinking about staging a quick storm chase out of Winnipeg MB the weekend of 16-17 June if the activity looks close enough to reach, however it would be better for me if 14-15 June were the weekend.

That time window also should produce some severe thunderstorms in parts of England too, so perhaps better to stay home and chase those instead.

[AudMun]

Does look very interesting.

(Pulls calculator out and tries to estimate how much us living on beans on toast would save over 12 months. All he needs to do now is persuade P.B.S. that it really is a good idea to send him away)

[Paul Sherman]

And rather Worryingly Mrs S has just given me Security Clearance to go next week if I want too :unsure: Now who can i get to go with me or do I do a lonesome Chase !!

Paul S

[Mad Murdoch]

I am sure loads of people will jump at the chance..

If i had the cash i would be right there........

Paul you have a very understanding wife :unsure:

Edited June 1, 2007 by kelly f

[Paul Sherman]

Am probably only going for about 4-5 days though, will hopefully fly to Denver with British Airways, have a Contact in the BA Offices so quite a cheap flight. Just do not know wether to commit on my lonesome, it is hard enough with only 2 of you let alone 1 person. Might stand a Chance in the June Photo Competition though

Paul S

Whole trip should cost between £800 - £900

I am sure loads of people will jump at the chance..

If i had the cash i would be right there........

Paul you have a very understanding wife

Do you think Kelly. I think she cant wait to get rid of me personally :unsure:

[Mad Murdoch]

:unsure:

[Pete the Britt]

Hey if i could get the leave & the money spare i'd jump at it myself with you. Ideal for some more photo's for June's competition aswell, maybe even do some RAW imagery masterclasses for those who still dont know about or don't shoot in RAW :unsure:

Regards

Pete

[NL]

Just do not know wether to commit on my lonesome, it is hard enough with only 2 of you let alone 1 person. Might stand a Chance in the June Photo Competition though

Paul S

Whole trip should cost between £800 - £900

Do you think Kelly. I think she cant wait to get rid of me personally :unsure:

[Paul Sherman]

4 options currently and this is the percentage

1. Chase Lonesome # 99%

2. Darin & Dick # 50%

3. Pete The Brit # 1% Preeeety Please Pete, come on, come on!! :unsure:

4. Contact Stu & Tony G who are duoing 3-9th June, anyone got Tony's number!!

Paul S

[Mad Murdoch]

what day would you fly out on?

[Paul Sherman]

Going to fly from Heathrow to Denver on Monday 3rd June Kelly

Paul S

[Mad Murdoch]

* kelly trying to see if she can do this*

[Paul Sherman]

Pete

Can you Pm me on Ukww, cant seem to send you a Pm on here as you have not got 10 posts, need to try and get Tony's Moby number, drop your Mobile on there will call you.

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Typical this... Have you seen the CAPE chart for Tuesday evening over there??

If only our team were still over there.. Still, we can virtual chase.. We have this.......

:lol:

I'm going to wait til Monday night before I pick my location...

[Paul Sherman]

Typical this... Have you seen the CAPE chart for Tuesday evening over there??

If only our team were still over there.. Still, we can virtual chase.. We have this.......

:lol: :lol:

I'm going to wait til Monday night before I pick my location...

:lol: :lol: LOL!

What about Wednesday then Pots!

Paul S

[pottyprof]

Kinell!!!.. Just been looking at the outlook Paul...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0403 AM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS APPARENT FOR NEXT

WEEK...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL

PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A BAND OF STRONG /60 TO

70 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS...AND THEN

THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.

MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO W TX AND

VICINITY DAY 4...AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF

PERSISTENT ERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE FOR DAY 5 HOWEVER...AS FLOW BECOMES

MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ERN TROUGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EWD...WHILE A

NEW TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS...ALLOWING

INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD EWD INTO MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR

OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS.

THIS TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION

DAY 6...AND THUS AN EWD SHIFT IN THE SEVERE THREAT AREA IS LIKEWISE

ANTICIPATED -- INTO THE MO AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.

DAY 7...THIS TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SPREAD A SEVERE

THREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED

WWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS...THE SEVERE THREAT AREA

SHOULD LIKEWISE EXTEND WWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE

CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY ALONG THE WWD EXTENT OF THIS FRONT

AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR DAY 8...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE A DAY 8

THREAT AREA ATTM.

WOW!!!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Lol What About Thursday through to Saturday

- Thursday 7th June

- Friday 8th June

- Saturday 9th June

Pottyprof, Go stand in the Corner and stop throwing the Paint around, I will tell Paul you Know!! :lol:

[pottyprof]

Bet you wish you were still out there??? :lol: Poo packs in hand (or trousers as the case may be...)

Shhh.. don't tell him I know how to deface his charts..

[Paul Sherman]

Do you know what I still have the 4th of May saved on me pluter and it looks something like this from just a few days b4 it happened

- Friday 4th May 00z

Paul S

[pottyprof]

That's pretty.. jelly and ice-cream... Should look familiar to you later tomorrow.. :lol:

Ah well... I'm thinking somewhere slightly east of Denver for an initial chase.. That look about right Paul??

Nick F.. Any ideas on this mate??