Virtual Storm Chase 2

[Paul Sherman]

SPC Have a Slight Risk for Tomorrow 13/03 across NE & E Central Oklahoma (The Jungles) but another Slight Risk for Friday looks even better across roughly the same area and points East of there, this is a SLIGHT RISK At the moment but could be Upgraded if forecasts continue to Verify, NAM Model showing Tornadic Supercells should not be a Problem and early Forecast Skewt' s Show good directional winds.

As Nathan says next week looks good as well for a 2-3 day event, I would favour a South Plains event on St Patricks day 17/03 at the moment from latest Model runs as the system has slowed down a Tad, obviously the 18/03 would be MS/AR/LS & Then 19/03 would be the South Eastern US Conus with Georgia, SC & FL.

An active Period coming up, maybe Spring proper is starting now ??

Paul S

[Gorky]

Indeed, later this week is starting to look better and better. I'd actually been skipping past the end of the week for a bit looking at next weeks threat, and was pretty surprised to see much things had ramped up in the last few days. The models just keep upgrading with every run... It looks like we'll have a couple of long nights ahead of us if we want to follow things.

Is it sad that I've taken Tuesday morning off work already, just in case Monday night does go bang and I'm up late? I really think I need some practice with the old virtual chasing before May as on the last couple of events I've been a mile out!

[NL]

Certainly looking like some late nights next week (if i can still borrow my daughters laptop.!)

ECMWF and GFS showing 2 different senarios either way still going to be severe.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0335 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE BEYOND DAY5 AS ECMWF SLOWS THE

PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO TX WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE TROUGH

QUICKLY INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY MID WEEK. GULF MOISTURE SHOULD

READILY RETURN AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND

INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION ON

MONDAY. SEVERE RISK WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO DAY6 AS

PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS.

..DARROW.. 03/13/2008

[Nick F]

Certainly looking like some late nights next week (if i can still borrow my daughters laptop.!)

ECMWF and GFS showing 2 different senarios either way still going to be severe.

Yes, need to make sure I'm stocked up on coffee, early next week is looking good across the Sern Plains - chance to get some target practice in before the real thing!

Monday looking rather good for a severe outbreak of TX and perhaps OK, deep longwave trough crossing the Rockies and sfc low pressure over TX will pull some warm moist Gulf air north ahead of the trough and dry line over Wern TX and OK and hopefully trigger some severe storms Monday - these threat shifting further east Tues - could see a MDT risk day perhaps - looking at how strong the jet is ahead of the upper trough:

slp and jet Tues 00z (Mon 18z)

dew points Tues 00z (Mon 18z)

Cape and LI Tues 00z (Mon 18z)

SLGT risks over the next 3 days - moving east across Sern US. Todays risk just west of the Mississipi River as far north as Sern MO looks to be mainly large hail and isol damaging wind gusts, only a 2% chance of tornado:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Paul Sherman]

What Chance of a Target Location of Shamrock on St Paddy's Day

Remember that Place from Last year Nick ?? It has an Irish Boozer and all the shops have Shamrocks over them

[Nick F]

Hmmm ... Amarillo and the Big Texan tantilisingly close too! A steak meal and a few 32oz beers?

[NL]

Hmmm ... Amarillo and the Big Texan tantilisingly close too! A steak meal and a few 32oz beers?

Oooh..! I think i could manage a few 32oz arm curls then i think

the only chasing i'll be doing is a few G&T's in-between..!!LOL

[Paul Sherman]

Things have finally kicked off Stateside, and as expected the 1st cell of the day has a large Dbz Core and is throwing out Large Hail right on the OK/AR Border. Severe Thunderstorm Watch now Issued.

Paul S

[NL]

One reported tornado yesterday in Pushmataha SE Oklahoma, no detail

on the size/path and duration.

Today sees a slight risk with 5% chance of tornadic activity.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Edited March 14, 2008 by NL