Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[oldsnowywizard]

we are now in the months of greatest potential ice loss. Last year just over 6million sk kms of ice was lost from June to Sep. the interesting thing will be to see if the 500k+ sq kms of sea ice we have in addition to this time last year will still be there at the end of Sep. More Ice = more albedo. SSTs are still showing wide areas of negative anomolies....

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Just to let you know that the previous Ice Reports thread can now be found in the seasonal archive area.

[NorthYorksWeather]

is it me or is that ice starting to break up

[BARRY]

is it me or is that ice starting to break up

melted

[NorthYorksWeather]

melted

im guessing it must melt from around june onwards as a few weeks ago taht was solid ice

[Gray-Wolf]

Though ,for the 'coldies', this years patterns may seem encouraging we must be mindful of the southern oceans 'experience'.

Though surface temps may show a 4c dip on last year at this time (and be well below freezing) the driving influence is the temperature of the oceans feeding up into the areas.

Our 'mega Icelandic Low' over the back end of winter not only kept East Canada/USA cold it also kept the SST's pegged. As summer moves on and SST's increase we should watch for any 'unseasonal' wind directions driving warm waters poleward.

Those who watched the Polynya form last year will know what I mean!

[Iceberg]

The hole in picture A occurs every year, however this year it's about 4 to 5 weeks early.

Picture B shows an area that is likely to melt alot in the next 2 weeks (i.e above the normal amount!).

[kippure]

Has there been any major ice shoves to shore this year?

[jethro]

I posted this elsewhere but as it is most relevant to this thread, I thought I'd post it here too. I'd be very interested to hear people's opinions on this.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...-ice-expansion/

Edited June 4, 2007 by jethro

[carinthian]

I posted this elsewhere but as it is most relevant to this thread, I thought I'd post it here too. I'd be very interested to hear people's opinions on this.

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...-ice-expansion/

Hi Jethro,

Lots of journals and theories flying around at the moment. A significant "cooling " spell did occur over much of Europe, especially the British Isles over the 1960s decade, culumlating in Arctic Sea maximum extend in the spring on 1968, the furthest recorded southward extent of the polar ice edge for 50 years or more. in the Nordic Seas.Of course many new factors with the advent of GW theories has added further complications to the overall picture. The recent warmth over Europe and North America would indicate we are still a long way from re-newed or oscillation generated Arctic Sea expansion. However, history has shown the picture can change over a period of just a few years.

Interesting read though. Thanks.

C

[jethro]

Hi Jethro,

Lots of journals and theories flying around at the moment. A significant "cooling " spell did occur over much of Europe, especially the British Isles over the 1960s decade, culumlating in Arctic Sea maximum extend in the spring on 1968, the furthest recorded southward extent of the polar ice edge for 50 years or more. in the Nordic Seas.Of course many new factors with the advent of GW theories has added further complications to the overall picture. The recent warmth over Europe and North America would indicate we are still a long way from re-newed or oscillation generated Arctic Sea expansion. However, history has shown the picture can change over a period of just a few years.

Interesting read though. Thanks.

C

Thank you Carinthian, with so much information flying around these days I sometimes wonder how anyone can reach any conclusion, for every theory which pronounces one thing, there's another to contradict it. I suppose time will tell. I still think we're a long way from understanding how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together; the vast knowledge we've accumulated so far is only the tip of the ice berg, so to speak.

[carinthian]

Summer still a long way off in parts of Arctic Russia. Cold polar winds into the Kara and Yamal and Novaya Zemlya peninsulars producing re-newed snowfall with the Ob river still ice bound. Cold circulation forecast to spread into White Russia this weekend with" summer frosts "!

C

[Anti-Mild]

Summer still a long way off in parts of Arctic Russia. Cold polar winds into the Kara and Yamal and Novaya Zemlya peninsulars producing re-newed snowfall with the Ob river still ice bound. Cold circulation forecast to spread into White Russia this weekend with" summer frosts "!

C

You can see on this forecast map that temperatures in central Russia are expected to be around 8c cooler than the mean:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

....on the other hand, most of Scandinavia is very warm for the time of year.

[carinthian]

You can see on this forecast map that temperatures in central Russia are expected to be around 8c cooler than the mean:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

....on the other hand, most of Scandinavia is very warm for the time of year.

Hi AM,

yep that temperature prediction map extends the Northern and Central Russian cold spell almost into mid-summers day. Interesting.

C

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinthian, everyone,

Thanks for these reports, some very interesting articles this morning, keep up the good work all, this helps to have a better understanding of what’s going on at this critical time in the Arctic season.

Paul

[summer blizzard]

You can see on this forecast map that temperatures in central Russia are expected to be around 8c cooler than the mean:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

....on the other hand, most of Scandinavia is very warm for the time of year.

I would'nt worry too much about a warm Europe at the moment, but lets hope we can keep the well below average anomolies until after the thermal peak in August, then they may be encouraged to expand due to albeado and early snowcover.

[carinthian]

Ditto that Paul

Some differences in patterns for the better compared to this time last year. Lets hope they are maintained.

Tamara

Morning Tamara, Paul C ,SB

As you point out the pattern for the start of the summer shows a big change from last summer. The Northern Block, very much in evidence . This however,can produce a reasonable summer over much of the British Isles. Last year a prolonged Central Asian/Russian blocked started pumping Tc airmass into the Arctic Rim . This so far is not happening. How long will it continue is the question ? The thermal peaking in August as SB describes is still a long way off.

C

[summer blizzard]

Morning Tamara, Paul C ,SB

As you point out the pattern for the start of the summer shows a big change from last summer. The Northern Block, very much in evidence . This however,can produce a reasonable summer over much of the British Isles. Last year a prolonged Central Asian/Russian blocked started pumping Tc airmass into the Arctic Rim . This so far is not happening. How long will it continue is the question ? The thermal peaking in August as SB describes is still a long way off.

C

The thermal peak will occur around the 5th August, after that, its all downhill, though sea ice obviously lags behind a few weeks.

The thermal peak will occur around the 5th August, after that, its all downhill, though sea ice obviously lags behind a few weeks.

I have just had a look at the charts, and thought it might be interesting to compare to recent years...

2005

2006

As you can see, the Jet Stream is almost tracking into the Arctic Cirle..

2007

As you can see, even a week away there is pronounnced troughing over Aisa with a dominant Sub-Tropical Jet Stream.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You can see on this forecast map that temperatures in central Russia are expected to be around 8c cooler than the mean:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

....on the other hand, most of Scandinavia is very warm for the time of year.

For every northerly there is a southerly. Some interesting info on here again and I am interested in this slight change of fortune. Will this continue? The new phase in the Perturbation Cycle [ 36 year cycle ] has begun Feb 07 and this new phase is where La Nina is expected to me more prominant both in strength and regualrity than El Nino. The cool period in the 20th century between 40s and 70s was the last 'La Nina/Least perturbation' phase which produced global cooling [and he new ice age fears]. This in spite of increasing human CO2! The pre 40s and the late 70s to now [warm phase] were phases when El Nino was dominant. I think this new phase will gradually have ice increase affect over the coming years/decades as oceans cool and of real interest is the coupling of this phase with a Gleissberg minima [around 2032 peak time].

BFTP

[carinthian]

For every northerly there is a southerly. Some interesting info on here again and I am interested in this slight change of fortune. Will this continue? The new phase in the Perturbation Cycle [ 36 year cycle ] has begun Feb 07 and this new phase is where La Nina is expected to me more prominant both in strength and regualrity than El Nino. The cool period in the 20th century between 40s and 70s was the last 'La Nina/Least perturbation' phase which produced global cooling [and he new ice age fears]. This in spite of increasing human CO2! The pre 40s and the late 70s to now [warm phase] were phases when El Nino was dominant. I think this new phase will gradually have ice increase affect over the coming years/decades as oceans cool and of real interest is the coupling of this phase with a Gleissberg minima [around 2032 peak time].

BFTP

hELLO BFTP,

Perturbation Cycle is certainly your forte. Nice post. All I can add that during the period 1968-76, Arctic sea ice went from a maximum to a mininum cycle with-in that short time phase. Will interesting to see if a repeat happens again .

C

[summer blizzard]

For every northerly there is a southerly. Some interesting info on here again and I am interested in this slight change of fortune. Will this continue? The new phase in the Perturbation Cycle [ 36 year cycle ] has begun Feb 07 and this new phase is where La Nina is expected to me more prominant both in strength and regualrity than El Nino. The cool period in the 20th century between 40s and 70s was the last 'La Nina/Least perturbation' phase which produced global cooling [and he new ice age fears]. This in spite of increasing human CO2! The pre 40s and the late 70s to now [warm phase] were phases when El Nino was dominant. I think this new phase will gradually have ice increase affect over the coming years/decades as oceans cool and of real interest is the coupling of this phase with a Gleissberg minima [around 2032 peak time].

BFTP

You could be right, over a 30 year time span, since 1995 the PDO and AO have shown signs of going into negative modes with the threshold round about now.

You should also note that the Gleissberg minima actually has two peaks, around 2044 and 2066.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

hELLO BFTP,

Perturbation Cycle is certainly your forte. Nice post. All I can add that during the period 1968-76, Arctic sea ice went from a maximum to a mininum cycle with-in that short time phase. Will interesting to see if a repeat happens again .

C

Hi C

Thanks. It was interesting how the El Nino 'died' in February on cue with the change in phase......fluke or pattern change

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Hi C

Thanks. It was interesting how the El Nino 'died' in February on cue with the change in phase......fluke or pattern change

BFTP

Blast, there are El Ninos which have died faster, the period March-May often shows the greatest decline or strengthening of ENSO events, most likely because of the stronger winter Jet Stream increasing mixing to the surface.

Anyhow, the potential La Nina event should encourage a negative AO slightly, though i dont think this will help sea ice much over the summer, as it will create more heat at the poles.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

You could be right, over a 30 year time span, since 1995 the PDO and AO have shown signs of going into negative modes with the threshold round about now.

You should also note that the Gleissberg minima actually has two peaks, around 2044 and 2066.

Hi SB

The two main peaks/or bottoms according to Landsheidt are 2030 and 2200 with further large blips as you have pointed out. Do you have link fo the dates you have mentioned as being the peaks? Genuine interest! The perturbation phase has direct correlation with the PDO. The Gleissberg minima is expected to be of the Maunder proportions so we shall see.

kind regards

BFTP

[Anti-Mild]

Although I do subscribe to the Gleissberg minimum theory and I do expect things to get cooler, particularly in Arctic regions, I also believe that it will be offset somewhat by AGW.

If AGW was not present I would expect our winters to be similar to those in the 1940's within the next 25 years or so. As it is, I anticipate a return to the winters of my youth (the early 80's) by the time we hit 2035, and then wont all the doom-mongers look a little foolish, much as the ones in the 1970's did after they proclaimed the advent of a new ice age!

This is not me on my soapbox, denouncing all of the GW evidence, it's just that I believe that the evidence is nowhere near complete enough to make broad, sweeping, doom-laden statements, telling us all that it's about time we bought a boat, moved to higher ground, planted some grape vines, or started to build an ark.

Cheers, AM