Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports - (Summer 2007)

[Iceberg]

Anybody got a link to the AMSR realtime artic images? The Bremen site isn't working atm, but the AMSR on Aqua is 2 or 3 times the resolution of the SSM ?.

[Guest mycroft]

hi ladies/gents

one would assume that with AGW and a warming planet,melting glaciers. That the amount of calving of icebergs would be increasing. Any ideas where i could find such information,with the media frenzy on AGW one would expect frequent reports of shipping be affected in some way. Even in these days of advanced radar etc..

[Iceberg]

The largest negative anomaly now for the artic, this year.

[carinthian]

In 6 hours at the North Pole the sun starts to sink towards the horizon and in exactly 3 months it will sink below the horizon. We will soon be into the Arctic "warm spell" when temperatures around the pole hover around +/- ve 0c for days on end with incoming radition now at its peak. Since the start on June a long pump of warm air into Western Arctic Basin originating from the NW Pacific as far as the Marianas has pushed the temperatures up rapidly in this area ( Eastern Siberia and Alaskan ) Arctic Region where loss of ice has been high. On the otherhand the Baffin cold pool circulation has prolonged a fair bit of winter ice in the Eastern Canadian Arctic. A noticeable feature so far this month has been the upper block over Svalbard (Northern Block ) has kept temperatures to more average levels in the North Baltic/ Kara Seas compared to last year, hence a cooler start to the summer over much of Western Europe.

Slowly over the coming weeks,the Arctic Oscillation will turn into + phase with surface pressure at the pole averaging nearer to 1015 mb.This in turn should see a rise in pressure over the Eastern Canadian Arctic and a "cooler correction " further west in the Arctic Basin .

C

[carinthian]

In 6 hours at the North Pole the sun starts to sink towards the horizon and in exactly 3 months it will sink below the horizon. We will soon be into the Arctic "warm spell" when temperatures around the pole hover around +/- ve 0c for days on end with incoming radition now at its peak. Since the start on June a long pump of warm air into Western Arctic Basin originating from the NW Pacific as far as the Marianas has pushed the temperatures up rapidly in this area ( Eastern Siberia and Alaskan ) Arctic Region where loss of ice has been high. On the otherhand the Baffin cold pool circulation has prolonged a fair bit of winter ice in the Eastern Canadian Arctic. A noticeable feature so far this month has been the upper block over Svalbard (Northern Block ) has kept temperatures to more average levels in the North Baltic/ Kara Seas compared to last year, hence a cooler start to the summer over much of Western Europe.

Slowly over the coming weeks,the Arctic Oscillation will turn into + phase with surface pressure at the pole averaging nearer to 1015 mb.This in turn should see a rise in pressure over the Eastern Canadian Arctic and a "cooler correction " further west in the Arctic Basin .

C

Some chilly air upwind out in the Greenland Sea. Last nights Jan Mayen radio sonde reading show presence of cold air aloft at 850mb pressure level with recording 0f -7C. Surface temperatures currently 3C below average. The airflow over Scotland and Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday will certainly have a cutting edge.

For those interested there is a web-cam now on the Island found on http:www.jan-mayen.no/

Not sure if this is the Islands Met Site

C

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Some chilly air upwind out in the Greenland Sea. Last nights Jan Mayen radio sonde reading show presence of cold air aloft at 850mb pressure level with recording 0f -7C. Surface temperatures currently 3C below average. The airflow over Scotland and Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday will certainly have a cutting edge.

For those interested there is a web-cam now on the Island found on http:www.jan-mayen.no/

Not sure if this is the Islands Met Site

C

Great stuff as always Carinthian, how does this compare to last year ?? Seem to recall we were staring at record minimas about 12-14 months ago.

[carinthian]

Great stuff as always Carinthian, how does this compare to last year ?? Seem to recall we were staring at record minimas about 12-14 months ago.

Hello TONA,

Yes,last October in parts of Greenland. Jan Mayen out in the Greenland Sea hardly reaches 10C. Average temp at this time of year is around 6C. Generally at the moment Greenland is reporting seasonal normal summer temps, but a persistant cold pool is affecting Svalbard and Jan Mayen. There is a great web-cam view of the snow covered volcano at the moment. It can be seen on the web address on the previous post. Can anyone bring it up ?

Thanks

C

[kippure]

Here

Class Click on web camera on the left.

Edited June 24, 2007 by kippure

[carinthian]

Here

Class Click on web camera on the left.

Thanks,

What a place that is ! Magical.

C

[Guest Viking141]

Some chilly air upwind out in the Greenland Sea. Last nights Jan Mayen radio sonde reading show presence of cold air aloft at 850mb pressure level with recording 0f -7C. Surface temperatures currently 3C below average. The airflow over Scotland and Ireland tomorrow and Tuesday will certainly have a cutting edge.

For those interested there is a web-cam now on the Island found on http:www.jan-mayen.no/

Not sure if this is the Islands Met Site

C

Youre not wrong Carinth! Been a cool day up here (top temp only 11.5C) and its starting to fall quite quickly now (just 10C but with the wind chill feeling like 6C) at the moment. Im expecting it to struggle to get into double figures up here tomorrow!

Edited June 24, 2007 by Viking141

[kippure]

Thanks,

What a place that is ! Magical.

C

Check out all the air pictures. Powerful landscape.

Edited June 24, 2007 by kippure

[carinthian]

Youre not wrong Carinth! Been a cool day up here (top temp only 11.5C) and its starting to fall quite quickly now (just 10C but with the wind chill feeling like 6C) at the moment. Im expecting it to struggle to get into double figures up here tomorrow!

hi Viking,

Well I sure a wee dram or two you like will help to keep you warm !

Cheers

C

[Iceberg]

Looks like an early opening of the NW passage *could* be in the offering.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Looks like an early opening of the NW passage *could* be in the offering.

Great piccy, cheers Iceberg. So when does "normal" opening usually commence ??

[Iceberg]

Useful link.

http://geology.com/articles/northwest-passage.shtml

It was almost unheard off for most the last 100 years, I think it might have happening once recently....?

[carinthian]

Warm Greenland today. Temperature at the summit about 10C above the late June average. Late June is the warmest period of the year on the summit. The maximum ever recorded is 1.8C and todays values are not that far away from 0C. Returning Westerly Maritime airflow over the Summit High pressure zone induces the higher temperatures in this particular set up.

C

[karyo]

Here

Class Click on web camera on the left.

What a stunning place! Totally unspoilt beauty thanks to the small number of humans living there.

Karyo

[Iceberg]

Massive change for the worst in the last week.

We now have the largest negative artic ice anomaly ever recorded. Current it's off the chart.

Ice decline also appears to be in free fall, although it has to stop at some point.

Last years record minimum now seems very likely to fall.

Very sad time

[ScandiHigh]

Massive change for the worst in the last week.

We now have the largest negative artic ice anomaly ever recorded. Current it's off the chart.

Ice decline also appears to be in free fall, although it has to stop at some point.

Last years record minimum now seems very likely to fall.

Very sad time

Yes, very concerning development the last couple of weeks. Perhaps some kind of comfort in the fact that there is still a bit more ice in the Barent Sea than last year. The Russian and Candian sectors, however, are significantly worse off than last year.

[carinthian]

Warm Greenland today. Temperature at the summit about 10C above the late June average. Late June is the warmest period of the year on the summit. The maximum ever recorded is 1.8C and todays values are not that far away from 0C. Returning Westerly Maritime airflow over the Summit High pressure zone induces the higher temperatures in this particular set up.

C

Where is the Arctic warmth coming from this summer.? Most of the Northern Hemisphere this summer above 45N is only average. Another complication added !

C

Massive change for the worst in the last week.

We now have the largest negative artic ice anomaly ever recorded. Current it's off the chart.

Ice decline also appears to be in free fall, although it has to stop at some point.

Last years record minimum now seems very likely to fall.

Very sad time

hi Iceberg,

Very worrying trend now with rapid loss of ice (including some permanent ice fields ) . Strange that most of the Northern Hemisphere is much cooler this Summer so far above 45 N.

C

[Stratos Ferric]

Where is the Arctic warmth coming from this summer.? Most of the Northern Hemisphere this summer above 45N is only average. Another complication added !

C

hi Iceberg,

Very worrying trend now with rapid loss of ice (including some permanent ice fields ) . Strange that most of the Northern Hemisphere is much cooler this Summer so far above 45 N.

C

Not really. It's the same principle as applies in winter. There's only so much cold air to go around. If the PFJ is displaced equatorwards for some it's circumnavigation then it must be exceptionally poleward (the surface area per latitude being smaller, and the troposphere less deep) to compensate in other places.

I haven't been tracking the data closely, but as the ice increasingly thins then rapid melt becomes more likely, the moreso if we have exceptional warmth. Albedo then falls and a positive feedback enters the system. Not great news.

[Iceberg]

Just been talking to the people behind the cryo site.

Yes they can confirm that the largest ever negative anom has been recorded.

Their thoughts are that the ice was although widespread was exceptional thin this year, this combined with an above everage radiation effect (i.e there have not been many clouds or LP's) has led to the rapid melt, despite no widespread very high temps really evident.

Matt

[Devonian]

Massive change for the worst in the last week.

We now have the largest negative artic ice anomaly ever recorded. Current it's off the chart.

Ice decline also appears to be in free fall, although it has to stop at some point.

Last years record minimum now seems very likely to fall.

Very sad time :lol:

More straws in the wind.

[Devonian]

More straws in the wind.

Although I've also read elsewhere the cryosphere today site is the one with the most 'noise' in it's data as it updates each day without, presumably, much time for detailed checks? Whatever, there is no denying ice up north (and arguably down south I see) is at a low ebb.

This IS stark though.

Edited June 28, 2007 by Devonian

[carinthian]

Not really. It's the same principle as applies in winter. There's only so much cold air to go around. If the PFJ is displaced equatorwards for some it's circumnavigation then it must be exceptionally poleward (the surface area per latitude being smaller, and the troposphere less deep) to compensate in other places.

I haven't been tracking the data closely, but as the ice increasingly thins then rapid melt becomes more likely, the moreso if we have exceptional warmth. Albedo then falls and a positive feedback enters the system. Not great news.

In simple terms the positions of the Polar Fronts are subject to very considerable oscillation and displacement according to the temperature distribution and strength of the airflows concerned. It is necessary to emphasive that the postion of the Pacific Polar Front has contined its North-Westwards position to produce an influx of very warm Pacific tropical air from as far as the Philippines into the Polar region of Western Canada and Eastern Siberia. It is here that the current rapid decline in summer ice is concentrated . Air Mass Climatology provides the most rational and embracing answer to this phenomena of heat transfer into the Arctic.

Back in the 1960s ( the cold decade ) in the Northern Hemisphere, the Polar Fronts were both some way from their mean positions (ie) Atlantic Front displaced further south, just as they at present. So it was not unusual to see warmth into the Arctic,but the rate of loss was much smaller then. The picture becomes more complicated with no easy or definate explainations.

C