Eastern Pacific Tropical systems

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has been downgraded to a tropical storm due to the battle with shear. Ivo was looking very poor this morning, and the initial intensity of 50kt that the NHC assigned the storm "could have been a little generous" in their words. Ivo has since improve dlooking at satellite imagery with a nice healthy flare up of convection so I think it's still a reletively strong tropical storm at the moment. Landfall in Baja Calafornia looking likely.

TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF ONLY A BURST OF

CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...RESULTANT FROM THE

SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 65

KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE DATA T-NUMBERS

ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD

AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/5. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE

SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS

FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IVO SLOWLY TO

THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY

FLOW AND TRACK A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA

PENINSULA. IN CONTRAST THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDN STALL THE

CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY PACKAGE.

WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE

INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS. HOWEVER

IF THE CURRENT BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS

AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND

IVO COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER.

ALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 112.7W 50 KT

12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.9N 112.4W 45 KT

24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.4N 111.8W 40 KT

36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W 35 KT

48HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 110.6W 30 KT

72HR VT 25/1200Z 24.2N 109.8W 25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING

96HR VT 26/1200Z 25.0N 109.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 27/1200Z 26.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Somerset Squall]

Ivo has weakened to a tropical depression, and only consists of a swirl of clouds and isolated thunderstorms. It could scrape the southern tip of Baja Calafornia later today- if it survives that long. It's unlikely it'll bring any more than a few showers tbh.

[mettalfabrik]

latest on ivo

WTPZ22 KNHC 230845

TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122007

0900 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.3W AT 23/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 111.3W AT 23/0900Z

AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W

MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.3N 109.7W...REMNANT LOW

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W...REMNANT LOW

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 108.6W...REMNANT LOW

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 111.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

400 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN

ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR

FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10

TO 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Somerset Squall]

TD14 has formed southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The system is expected to head west-northwestwards. Conditions appear conducive for a little strengthening before shear and cooler waters weaken and dissapate the cyclone later in the forecast period.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007

200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

AFTER GRADUALLY GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF

DAYS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE

PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING MORE PERSISTENT

CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL

DEPRESSION STATUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 TO 35

KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE LOWER END OF

THIS RANGE SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL PULSATING A BIT. SOME

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN

RELATIVELY WEAK FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INCREASING SHEAR

THEREAFTER WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON INTENSIFICATION...AS WILL

COOLER SSTS BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT ABOUT 285/14 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE

WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE

RIDGE AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IN

TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE

IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

LESSEN AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PULLS OUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 15.1N 111.1W 30 KT

12HR VT 29/1800Z 15.6N 112.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 30/0600Z 16.6N 113.6W 40 KT

36HR VT 30/1800Z 17.8N 114.2W 45 KT

48HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 114.8W 45 KT

72HR VT 02/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W 35 KT

96HR VT 03/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W 25 KT

120HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Somerset Squall]

TD14 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Juliette. The intensity forecast is basically the same before; there is about 36 hours left for Juliette to strengthen before cooler waters and higher shear kill her off.

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007

200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE

CLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO

CYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS

BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.

SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS

CONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.

THEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION

WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE

WILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48

HOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A

WESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES

STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS

SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND

HWRF MODELS.

JULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH

SHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR

WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A

MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE

LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS

THAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST

WEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO

WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY

DAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE

COULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED

IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 16.5N 112.1W 35 KT

12HR VT 30/0600Z 17.7N 113.0W 40 KT

24HR VT 30/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W 45 KT

36HR VT 01/0600Z 20.9N 115.1W 45 KT

48HR VT 01/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 40 KT

72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.7N 117.0W 30 KT

96HR VT 03/1800Z 21.7N 118.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

It seems TS Juliette has reached it's peak intensity, 45kts. Juliette is forecast to weaken because of shear and cooler sea temps. The steering currents are forecasted to be very weak from about day 3 so Juliette or the remains will probably dissapate well west of Baja Calafornia.

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142007

800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007

AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE

CENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A

RATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK DATA

T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. A

LATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE

CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS.

ASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH

OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SOUTHERLY

SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF

JULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS

UNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD

FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND

TROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES

INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO

DECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT

WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE

AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA.

WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE

QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 21.7N 115.4W 40 KT

12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.7N 115.9W 35 KT

24HR VT 02/1200Z 23.6N 116.2W 30 KT

36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 03/1200Z 24.5N 116.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 04/1200Z 24.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

400 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE

CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...UPPER

LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM

MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

[Somerset Squall]

TD15 formed about 24 hours ago. It did have some impressively deep convection associated with it but that has now decreased quite dramatically due to shear attacking the system. Steering currents are practically non-existant so little movement is anticipated. The system isn't going to be any threat to land, at least for the time being.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007

200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...EXPOSING

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-DEFINED.

A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT AROUND 1330Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY RELIABLE

WIND RETRIEVALS OF 25-30 KT...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE WESTERN

SEMICIRCLE THAT WERE LIKELY INFLATED BY THE CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT

DATA. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO

PERSIST AT ROUGHLY ITS CURRENT MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FIVE

DAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. MOST OF THE

OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES TOO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS

GIVEN HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING IN THE SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT.

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING

THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY WEAK...AND

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE

SURROUNDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A

WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO RESPOND...AND THERE

ARE NO LOW-LEVEL STEERING MECHANISMS IN PLAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE

TRACKS GO IN ALL KINDS OF DIRECTIONS. SOME OF THEM...INCLUDING THE

GFS...FORECAST NO SIGNIFICANT NET MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE

FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF A NEARLY

STATIONARY CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.1N 108.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W 35 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Somerset Squall]

TD15 has strengthened to tropical storm Kiko. Convection has become considerably deeper since yesterday although it isn't directly over the centre- probably due to continued shear affecting Kiko. No strengthening is forecast for the next 5 days due to the shear but is always possible that there may be a little intensification as sea temps are plenty warm which should help the convection remain deep. Little movement has occured but an eventual drift northwestwards is anticipated when sterring currents become marginally stronger.

TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152007

800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND

WITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD

PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB

AND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT

THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. KIKO IS EMBEDDED

WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS.

THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

KIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK

STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO

EASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH

FORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN

INDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK.

THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING

THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE

NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE

SOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL

FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W 35 KT

12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W 35 KT

36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W 35 KT

48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W 35 KT

72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W 35 KT

96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W 35 KT

120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

Kiko has weakened back to a tropical depression, after only 6 hours as a tropical storm. It is possible that it could regain tropical storm status but any real strengthening is still not anticipated due to shear. Kiko will move very little in the next 5 days due to the abscence of any steering currents.