Invest Thread

[Somerset Squall]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1130 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED

ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE

FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY

WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

TD17?

[Somerset Squall]

Interestingly, there is an invest in the Atlantic, 94L. Quite a small system, but does it have any chance of developing?

The NHC have issued a tropical disturbance statement:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2007

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED

TODAY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IN

ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL

LOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO

THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE

SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH IN THIS AREA TO

SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT

ESPECIALLY PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT

24 HOURS...AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE EASTERN BAHAMAS

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS

NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT

STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Edited December 10, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

Certainly an End of Year get the stats up effort. Currently good rotation but shear taking it's toll..

Not sure 94L will really do anything tbh..

[Somerset Squall]

New disturbance statement from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

645 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF

PUERTO RICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FORMING...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS REMOVED WELL TO

THE NORTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE

COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY

WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA

TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS

IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS

SYSTEM.

FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS

NECESSARY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...CONSULT

STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB

It is still looking quite poor at the moment, and conditions are only marginal as there is shear over the system. I think you may be right Iceberg, I can't see much happening with this either. We may still be surprised though!

[mettalfabrik]

late in the year this baby.. sorry mods please move to appropriate thread

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?...;blog=community

.WARNINGS.

...ATLC GALE WARNING...

.LOW NEAR 28N37W 1006 MB. OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN

300 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 9 TO 14

FT.

.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR

25N37W 1008 MB. WITHIN 300 NM NW AND 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLES WINDS

30 TO 35 KT SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR

23N43W 1009 MB. WITHIN 300 NM OF LOW AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT

WINDS 30 TO 35 KT SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER

IS MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME SPOT THAT IT HAS BEEN RESIDING FOR

THE LAST WEEK OR SO. THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER IS

S-T 2.5. A HURRICANE FORECASTER WROTE A DSAAT BULLETIN AT

29/1900 UTC...THIS FEATURE THAT IS ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF THE AZORES GRADUALLY HAS BEEN ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. IT HAS BEEN

PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST

OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME

A SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS

NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND

IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE

FROM 28.5N TO 30N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS

AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS STILL IS ALONG 25N34W 20N37W 18N40W 13N50W

10N57W 9N60W AND NOT QUITE TO THE COAST OF EXTREME EASTERN/

NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AS IT WAS 16 HOURS AGO. PATCHES OF

MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH

AN ALREADY-DISSIPATED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...ORIGINATING FROM

THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM

NORTH OF 17N46W 12N57W 11N65W 13N71W. THE CLOUDS/POSSIBLE

PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THIS LINE ARE IN THE

CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER DURING THE NEXT

36 HOURS BEFORE BEING PUSHED TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST

BY A DEVELOPING MIDDLE-OCEAN RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE LATE NIGHT

AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY MAY BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY

FOR THIS SYSTEM TO GAIN A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION TO ITS

PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A NAMED

SUBTROPICAL STORM GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST

TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER TODAY.

Edited December 30, 2007 by blackdown

[Somerset Squall]

Blimey, that caught me unawares. Look at how strong the shear is becoming over the region though, it would be a surprise if this one manages to get classified in such conditions:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...ges/images.html

However, having said that it looks like it is gaining organisation and it wouldn't take much more organisation for it to become subtropical or even (small chance) tropical. A wait and see would be best with this one. Does anyone else have any views on whether this will become classified or not?

Edited December 30, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Latest disturbance statement:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1100 AM AST SUN DEC 30 2007

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC

OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SATELLITE

IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A

FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY

HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM

CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS... MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND

EAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT STILL COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM

LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS.

FURTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Gray-Wolf]

Very interesting eh? reminds me of the Argentinian hurricane, can't argue when it's there as to whether it ought to be or not.