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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Well it hasn't but it could do tonight or tomorrow.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1390 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN

INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF

MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED

CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEREFORE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME

TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR

NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN

THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF

TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS

OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE

REQUIRED IMMEDIATELY UPON THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Posted
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW!
  • Location: Polesworth, North Warwickshire 104m asl

Not upgraded yet but it's approaching the diurnal min and looking like this - http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/8154/91ljz5.jpg - we might wake up to something totally different altogether. As it's within 48 hours of hitting anywhere, I hope they err on the side of caution and talk it up a bit, even it it comes to nothing. There's no time to warn properly if it does intensify fast.

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Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

That to me looks very much like a small TD sitting in the middle of the GoM in the middle of all that cloud... maybe even a TS... I wonder if there's a closed circulation under that lot somewhere.

(according to the NHC, there isn't)

edit: ...which is unsuprising. I've only just realised that the last post was only 11 mins ago. lol

Edited by crimsone
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Hahaha, yet again My pre-emptive skills strike again!

I just made a post in the waves thread about a wave in the W.Atlantic to the north of the leeward island and what do you know its been declared invest 92L.

SHIPS have just run making 92L a hurricane by 96hrs. The early Statistical models take Dean pretty far north heading roughly NW as a hurricane however these models aren't all that good when it comes to systems this far north as they aren't dynamic in nature. Most global models I've seen that do anything with the invest take it WNW towards S.Florida but its very very early days yet. Current movement is NW then possibly a turn back to WNW.

This is certainly one to watch and odds on to be out next tropical storm to watch, just as Dean decays over Mexico 92L should be ramping up through the levels.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Hahaha, yet again My pre-emptive skills strike again!

I just made a post in the waves thread about a wave in the W.Atlantic to the north of the leeward island and what do you know its been declared invest 92L.

SHIPS have just run making 92L a hurricane by 96hrs. The early Statistical models take Dean pretty far north heading roughly NW as a hurricane however these models aren't all that good when it comes to systems this far north as they aren't dynamic in nature. Most global models I've seen that do anything with the invest take it WNW towards S.Florida but its very very early days yet. Current movement is NW then possibly a turn back to WNW.

This is certainly one to watch and odds on to be out next tropical storm to watch, just as Dean decays over Mexico 92L should be ramping up through the levels.

Well, the US has managed to dodge Dean so it is only fair that the next storm system will affect them. I just hope that the system won't shift northwards and all the warm moist air towards us.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I take it we're looking at the wave at 20N, 55W? Seems to look aimed at Florida/through Florida the way things are sat out there right now. K.W., that 'Saturday GFDL run' which showed a beasty ploughing into Florida whilst Dean was Dying in the foothills of Mexico....is this it?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Things arn't looking good for 92L. Floater 2 is ment to be over it but I think is still getting into position. V.V little model support for development and convection is a bit lacking.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I actually think 92L has a good future once it gets better organised, could be a TD by Wed-Thurs. It has some shear over it right now keeping the convection unorganised but models are progging shear to decrease in the region ahead of it over the next 2 days. It won't get rapidly organised despite waht SHIPS think until late this week but I think its got plenty of time to develop with a very interesting set-up ahead of it and also a pretty good environment.

Global models don't develop it but then again they aren't likely to as its just a wave. The reason they latched noto Dean so well is because it had a low already with it and got a good sounding of the atmopshere around it while heading out into the Atlantic. This system has no such soundings nor such a low and so the models aren't likely to pick up anything.

Right now its a case of looking ahead at the shear tendancy, looking at WV loops over the states to gauge where the jet is and to keep an eye on whether an upper high anticyclone forms, as there are hints this is starting to occur which will lower shear. I'm pretty confident something will eventually form from this, probably becoming Felix.

Track should take it WNW for a while then probably back to the west, possibly even WSW for a breif time as the upper high to its north remains strong and as we saw from Dean a westerly track can go on for a very long time when you have a high this strong. IMo the strength of this high means a track thorugh Florida and into the gulf of mexico. Reminds me a little of a R storm from a couple of years ago actually at the moment...

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Any news on this one????

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Pit- system is far less organised then yesterday and upper low has formed over central Caribbean which is leading to higher shear then forecast. I certainly won't rule out later development but condtions not as favorable as I first thought, as Iceberg said still little model support.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well we have Invest 93L tohugh its very close to land indeed, just offshore in the BOC, just to the north of where the stronger Dean made landfall. I think its probably a little too close to land for it to develop but there were several systems in 05 that formed in a similar position though normally a little further east then this one, I think any westard movement is going to send this system inland. It would have a good chance if it was about 50-100 miles further east as this area has been well known to brew up quick tropical cyclone.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Good spot, I saw this on the IR, but didn't think too much of it apart from some good convection.

Probably too early to see what the models think about it but the BOC is difficult for storms to get out of.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yeah it didn't have much time sadly.

However we now do have Invest 94L right now about 40W and while it isn't that well organised it does have some decent convective coverage present:

post-1211-1188307334_thumb.jpg

Don't think its going to get its act on too fast based on what it looks like currently but given its current position I can only imagine we will have a week or so to watch it and see it becomes anything. If it does develop then the set-up around it is pretty decent with little shear to note right now (though these things can change.) The track as well is a little uncertain. The early guidence Statistical models take 94L towards South America on a slight WSW track and this is based on a strong high to the north of the system, the same one that kept Dean so westerly. Other global models however slightly weaken the high and take it just north of west and then eventually WNW. Normally you'd go along with the dynamic models however the models have had a habit of overdoing the breakdown of the strong Bermuda/Azores high so far this summer, though the GFS did handle the high well with Dean, as did ECM inside 144hrs. I think right now to be safe you'd have to split it down the middle and say a track into the Caribbean. The models won't have a very good grip on this system because it has no low level feature to base its intial set-up on.

Still its one to watch and one that could well become a tropical system later this week.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
Yeah it didn't have much time sadly.

However we now do have Invest 94L right now about 40W and while it isn't that well organised it does have some decent convective coverage present:

post-1211-1188307334_thumb.jpg

Don't think its going to get its act on too fast based on what it looks like currently but given its current position I can only imagine we will have a week or so to watch it and see it becomes anything. If it does develop then the set-up around it is pretty decent with little shear to note right now (though these things can change.) The track as well is a little uncertain. The early guidence Statistical models take 94L towards South America on a slight WSW track and this is based on a strong high to the north of the system, the same one that kept Dean so westerly. Other global models however slightly weaken the high and take it just north of west and then eventually WNW. Normally you'd go along with the dynamic models however the models have had a habit of overdoing the breakdown of the strong Bermuda/Azores high so far this summer, though the GFS did handle the high well with Dean, as did ECM inside 144hrs. I think right now to be safe you'd have to split it down the middle and say a track into the Caribbean. The models won't have a very good grip on this system because it has no low level feature to base its intial set-up on.

Still its one to watch and one that could well become a tropical system later this week.

NO no no no no! I don't want to go through that again! Wondering if I have to change my holiday destination, then finding out that it's okay, only for you to show me a potential TS! I only hope it doesn't end up anywhere near the Yucatan! We leave next Saturday so I don't want any headaches before that thanks very much! haha!

Keep us posted KW & Iceberg, and I'll keep the holiday brochure handy :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well its always worth watching these systems tcc. Its really too early to get a decent grip on the future direction of this system but the key features to watch will be the strong high pressure belt to its north and whether or not any upper low tries to create a weakness in that high or not. Right now its heading pretty much due west but really the global models don't do much with this system (Bar ECM which has its foward speed way to slow) so we are flying blind right now. Its quite a deep system right now though it probably will gain a little more lattiude till it bumps into the high then its a case of waiting and seeing how the steering currents evolve.

It should be noted that while the Caribbean waters aren't quite so extreme as they were in terms of heat content they still support a strong hurricane if 94L reaches there with a favorable set-up. It has a fast foward speed right now and so while its at 40W it shouldn't waste time getting towards the lesser Antilles, possibly as soon as Friday.

Remember what happened to Dean as it hit 45-55W and how it developed nicely, I see no reason right now why 94L won't become a player over the next 2-3 days and by that time we should have a far better idea of its eventual track and strength, if it does get into the Caribbean we *could* be looking at another major hurricane but thats a little way off right now and we'll have to watch it closely.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Tropical models havent' picked this up yet but Ships takes this to a CAT 1 in 96 hours.

It doesn't have lots of support (mainly because nothing is running with this yet!), but should not be discounted.

The major players might come on board in the 18Z runs. The models that do develop it produce a turn into the Carib.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

We have a bit more to go on this now. both HW and GFDL initialise it, GFDL looses it immediately, HWRF developes it until more hostle environments take it down, development upto a strong TS takes place.

Looking at it on current sat there is good evidence of circulation with precip near the centre. This really will need to be watched closely.

Path is very problematical as the models handle the decaying ridge differently.

I've drawn on a red line it follows a combination of the tropical models and the GM's and most favours the GFDL, CMC and HWRF 12Z's.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

To be fair though Iceberg while the ridge is decaying right now both the GFS and the Euro re-strengthen it in a few days time to about the same strength as we saw with Dean.

I personally think your track is way too NW, the high is still pretty hefty to its north and most of the models I've seen take 94L into the Caribbean and I can only assume that unless a weakness opens up 94L will probably take a similar motion in the Caribbean as Dean did. The BAM models are too far south bar maybe the BAMS which may be closer IMO even if the track won't be quite like that.

Does look better and better right now as expected as the system heads towards the higher heat content to its west, it does need to be watched though if it does track like Dean it probably won't get as strong as Dean with the waters being stirred up quite nicely by Dean, still looking at a cat-3/4 system if it does track like Dean

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

More gut instinct KW, I don't think the ridge when it returns it strong at all, particularly at the upper levels.

I think this is backed up by some degree by the GM's, new model tracks so a good movement NW in the average tracks.

Anyway we might not get a chance to see, convection is very poor atm, even though the circulation is still evident.

Re SST's recovering, I think it depends on the speed and size of the CAT 5 that went through before, how much of the heat content was removed basically and the depth to which the heat content went.

Dean was quite a fast Cane, so I would heat content to have fully recovered in 2 weeks of Dean passing through.

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