Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June

[MR CB]

Just had a moderate rain shower...keeping my eye outside incase that cell behind decides to make landfall near me...looks like it may track via Hastings / Rye area - seems to have developed in the last hour or so

OMG it may be heading for me 2300 MO radar suggests so...other smaller cells breaking out ahead of it! maybe one flash or so...was walking back half hour ago looking out to the Channel and swear I saw a distant flash

Edited May 31, 2007 by MR CB

[MR CB]

Can't seem to edit my post!!!

2332 - just seen an in cloud flash over Hastings way from my window (and slight rumble 20 secs later) they are still developing it seems

2350 - radar seems to show some dissipation so less chances of lightning now!

Edited May 31, 2007 by MR CB

[Noctilucid]

Can't seem to edit my post!!!

2332 - just seen an in cloud flash over Hastings way from my window (and slight rumble 20 secs later) they are still developing it seems

2 cells are making landfall around the rye/ dungeness area.

Joe

[MR CB]

I'm hearing many short distant rumbles to the south - too tired to go out so I'm hoping it'll make landfall soon

0016 - looks like a late one but its looking good - just seen an overhead flash - getting a headache and the seagulls are moaning

Edited May 31, 2007 by MR CB

[MR CB]

The 0000 radar suggests that your cell will pass just near me but heading west...the other larger cell still out in the Channel is more active and is heading along the Sussex coast bound for Brighton - may make landfall round there, could be worth it if stays active...there was a slight blip on the radar for a second earlier (loss of activity) but that was me expecting the worst!

Also I think the two cells could merge...

Here we go downpour now as I type!!!!

Edited May 31, 2007 by MR CB

[Rustynailer]

If there wasn't so much rain in between here and Beachy head I would go out to the downs for a look and a shot or 3, but It will be a case of visibility under 10 miles probably only 3 or 4 miles its usually possible to see flashes from storms at Eastbourne from the hills above here, if there is not much in the way that is....

Russ

Edited May 31, 2007 by Rustynailer

[MR CB]

Well the rain has been coming down in sheets here and has just started to ease off - no thunder or lightning at all now so its lost some electrical activity

0043 - forced to eat my own words as a flash of lightning and a weird crack of thunder happen

Edited May 31, 2007 by MR CB

[Noctilucid]

Cell is currently centred just east of the Beachy Head, there is another cell south of it.

Eastbourne is directly in the path of it and also areas such as Hove and the downs area NE of Chichester are in line for it afterwards if it dosnt die.

Joe

[cobbettp]

hi i'm on the south coast near portmouth

cant see anything thundery happening tonight.

Paul

[Cableguy]

Cell is currently centred just east of the Beachy Head, there is another cell south of it.

Eastbourne is directly in the path of it and also areas such as Hove and the downs area NE of Chichester are in line for it afterwards if it dosnt die.

Joe

already dying out and sferics fading away

[Mad Murdoch]

distant lightening from the west, coming from cell in hitting south coast now

[MAF]

distant lightening from the west, coming from cell in hitting south coast now

you up to keep an eye on it then Kel?

[Shaun L]

Have just switched the BBC forecast on and after expecting a mainly dry and sunny day in the west they have now said that storms are likely which is a complete u-turn on the earlier forecast.

Here's hoping !!

Edited June 1, 2007 by shaun l

[Stuart]

they may only be a few storms around today

[Costa Del Fal]

Looking at radars i should get more Showers and Storms Today! Yipeeeee!

Today is going to be warmer so that may highjer the chance of storms coming!

[Stuart]

Looking at radars i should get more Showers and Storms Today! Yipeeeee!

Today is going to be warmer so that may highjer the chance of storms coming!

yes but but not as many

[Costa Del Fal]

Well im not sure about that. Metos radar is packed with showers for us, if anything the same as yesterday and in parts slightly worse!

[Nick F]

Today, the reminants of an upper cold pool will be present aloft over Northern and Western UK today, creating steep enough lapse rates for heavy showers to break out. 300mb charts show vorticity from upper troughs moving NE present which will help create lift. Drier air moving up from the South and CINH(convective inhibition) and NVA(negative vorticity advection) looks to be present over much of Eastern, central and Sern England today which looks to prevent much in the way of convection, however, for Wales, parts of Western England, N. England and much of Scotland heavy showers with hail and thunder look to develop through the morning into the afternoon, wind convergence of SW and SE winds across this area may help uplift too. Best chance of thunder looks to be over Cumbria and anywhere over Scotland where lapse rates will be steepest:

Again, very little speed shear aloft today to seperate downdrafts away from updrafts, so storms look to be non-severe pulse type storms which collapse after 30 mins but whose ouflow may create daughter cells nearby which carry on the process. Little low-level wind shear too, so chance of funnels/tornadoes v. slim to non-existant.

[Stuart]

Thanks for that nick i hope you are right

[Rustynailer]

Today, the reminants of an upper cold pool will be present aloft over Northern and Western UK today, creating steep enough lapse rates for heavy showers to break out. 300mb charts show vorticity from upper troughs moving NE present which will help create lift. Drier air moving up from the South and CINH(convective inhibition) and NVA(negative vorticity advection) looks to be present over much of Eastern, central and Sern England today which looks to prevent much in the way of convection, however, for Wales, parts of Western England, N. England and much of Scotland heavy showers with hail and thunder look to develop through the morning into the afternoon, wind convergence of SW and SE winds across this area may help uplift too. Best chance of thunder looks to be over Cumbria and anywhere over Scotland where lapse rates will be steepest:

Again, very little speed shear aloft today to seperate downdrafts away from updrafts, so storms look to be non-severe pulse type storms which collapse after 30 mins but whose ouflow may create daughter cells nearby which carry on the process. Little low-level wind shear too, so chance of funnels/tornadoes v. slim to non-existant.

Thanks Nick, I am going to Cumbria, but not till Monday, so I'll watch from here like everybody else

Last night I got tired, sure enough as i was getting to sleep, flashes through the curtains and a distant rumble, which Kelly reported

Russ

[Shaun L]

Convection already kicked off over the North Wales hills. It could be an interesting afternoon.

[karyo]

It looked pretty promising here until half an hour ago with good convention. However, the clouds have moved to my west now and they could become showers as they slowly head for the coast.

To my east, where normally the best convention can be found (Pennines) there's absolutely nothing. Boring blue skies and not a decent cumulous to be seen. It must be some drier air that has moved in from the east.

It certainly looks less promising today with higher pressure than yesterday.

Karyo

[Stormraider]

Clouds to the left of me clouds to the right, here i am stuck here in blue sky ! lol

Looks to be a repeat of yesterday... i.e Storms/heavy showers left right but not centre. We only had a few brief sharp showers but plenty of storms dotted all around.

[BrickFielder]

Drier mid level air should give slightly stronger updrafts although Cape looks a little meagre today. Strong winds coming in aloft should also help updrafts and give some stretched out anvils. Winds turn through mid levels but are very weak.

GFS shows a second weak trough coming in from the west which does just about show up on Satelite imagery but is not very clear.

One change from yesterday is some convective inhibition across central areas which I think is linked to less low level moisture here. This will somewhat suppresses convection and make any storms there more isolated and stronger.

There is an enhanced risk of very weak spout like tornados today. These rarely reach the ground and form where winds are very light from a vertical vorticity source. Typically wind convergence zones provide the vorticity required. Stronger tornadoes tend to form from horizontal vorticity sources which are drawn up into strong updrafts, while longer lived tornadoes require updraft and downdraft seperation typically found in a super cell. There is very little risk today of strong or even moderate tornadoes as wind shear parameters, updraft strengths and weak instability do not really support this , however there is a risk of very short lived weak spouts or funnels forming.

Temperatures around 18C look required for storms in some areas and some warmth in the very top layer means thunder and lightning are likely to be rather limited in the south. Scotland looks the best place for seeing a thunder storm today.

[Paul Sherman]

Good Point about the Convergence Type Funnels Brick. These form quite readily in the Summer Months from Slack Flow, usually found under Heavy TCU & sometimes not even associated with It's main parent Thunderstorm (Cb) These can be very pretty to photograph as well as Rain does not get in the way if you get em early enough.

Paul S