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Conv/Storm Discussion 31/5 & Early June


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Posted
  • Location: NW London/Outskirts
  • Location: NW London/Outskirts

Greenford NW London,

16-30 Some Heavy cloud build-up, 2-3 miles to the north (Harrow), may/will produce a sharp shower in the vicinity. No electrical activity as yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

The 16.30 NW radar shows a speckling of tiny showers across most South/South Eastern counties (with CS England more of an exception to this). No CBs reported on Meteocentre at 15.30 , so I'm thinking all the showers are from the largest of the many TCus. Most are probably brief sharp showers with large raindrops - good, fun weather conditions though IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: North West Londonish
  • Location: North West Londonish
Greenford NW London,

16-30 Some Heavy cloud build-up, 2-3 miles to the north (Harrow), may/will produce a sharp shower in the vicinity. No electrical activity as yet.

Just back from harrow and wembley, clouds keep building up and turning black. Few drops of rain, very muggy. Wind picks up every so often giving hope, but nothing coming of it.... yet....

Geri

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

quick look at the skew-t's for this afternoon.

Larkhill suggests most tops around 10-12,000ft with a slight chance of an isolated top to 35000ft but its really too dry for it.

Camborne tops aboput 6000ft, if one did get higher then there is a very moist layer 16000-27000 which might give a few tops to 35000ft

Watnall 6-8000ft with a small prob of a very isolated top to 30000ft.

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Posted
  • Location: Barnstaple N Devon
  • Location: Barnstaple N Devon

oh my the clouds here are very black and it looks like its going to hiss it down at any moment but looking at the radar it is showing nothing for us here in the south west... The wind has dropped to zero and it is very muggy.. so dont understand what is going on at the moment... Radar saying one thing and the clouds saying another willl watch and wait and let you know.

kaz

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Thunderstorm over Glasgow recently, otherwise showers have been very isolated and few and far between today. As mentioned earlier looking at the 12z ascents, a nose of relatively warmer air above 700mb over central and Western areas looks to have prevented coud tops rising sufficiently to create heavy showers.

Abermarle (NE England) 12z sounding represented probably the most unstable profile of the soundings today with the steepest lapse rates - this air sample probably the most representative of the atmosphere over central Lowlands of Scotland this afternoon - but since noon lapse rates have been steepened by an upper trough looking at upper charts and WV imagery - giving heavy showers with thunder. The 12 Amermarle skew-t suggested it would only take slightly colder air to arrive aloft from say an upper trough to steepen lapse rates and allow clouds to reach high enough for heavy showers to generate.

post-1052-1180717749_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stevenage Herts
  • Location: Stevenage Herts

Have to say very surprising two days here all forecasts said thundery activity thursday Friday in the form of showers very little yesterday and today was absolutly beautiful ! what happened ?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Have to say very surprising two days here all forecasts said thundery activity thursday Friday in the form of showers very little yesterday and today was absolutly beautiful ! what happened ?

Problem with your area today, and generally North of London over the Midlands, East Anglia and up the East coast towards NE England was rather dry air (low relative humidities) inland which have been inhibitive for convection to form, one reason for the dry air IMO is that the moist Easterly feed over the cool North Sea has cooled to reached it's dew point to form fog over sea and along the coast but once the airmass reaching inland has been robbed of moisture by the fog over the sea and has dried out overland.

post-1052-1180720330_thumb.png- 15z RH shows dry air over East and Central areas.

As for yesterday, well showers and storms are often hit and miss, so that some areas will stay dry all day - while there's a torrential downpour five or ten miles down the road, that's the unfortunate side of convection.

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

Nick

Thanks for the info

Unfortunately there has been no storms today here in the North East {YET} current temp 15.0c/ Current Dew point 10.4c with the humidity on 74% slight breeze from the SW and the pressure is currently 1022.8 this has rissen from 1016.4hpa at 0400hrs this morning

nigel

newcastle

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Posted
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport
  • Location: North Kenton (Tyne-and-Wear)6miles east from newcastle airport

looking at Nw xtra lightning dectector , its showing activity over the North Pennines area, which isnt that far from my location prob about 20 to 25 mile away give or take

nigel

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Posted
  • Location: Whitehill, Hampshire
  • Location: Whitehill, Hampshire

There were lots of towering cumulus earlier, however it never came to anything.

The radar isn't showing much around here, but there are large towers passing overhead, obviously they will come to nothing it seems.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
VERY DARK HERE AND HEAVY BUT NO STORM

Been at Epsom races today and there was a lot of convection, but nothing came of it. Driving back to Newbury we passed what seemed to be a developing shower around Bracknell, interesting how it developed after 1900 as the temps started to drop... any ideas?

ps. you can see it on the radar..

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Is there any chance of storms breaking out in the east tomorrow as the front moving in from the West hits the warm air (temps up to 25C according to BBC weather)? I've noticed there is some wind convergence and a great deal of vert velocity but LI doesn't look too impressive. Dew Points 16/17C.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Herts, UK
  • Location: Herts, UK

Things looking good for the south during the later part of next week if things stay the same, certainly something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

ukcapeli.png

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I'm going to stick my neck out and say there is a chance of some heavy showers and one or two scattered thunderstorms later on today (probably from 6pm to midnight) in eastern parts.

Around 300J/KG of CAPE is projected to coincide with some pretty high temperatures. My feeling is that GFS have under done these temps and 23-25C seems more likely. Dew points will be at between 16 and 18C.

post-2719-1180849970_thumb.png post-2719-1180849977_thumb.png

The trigger will be a line of wind convergence as seen below.

post-2719-1180850224_thumb.png

Areas at risk are Lincolnshire, East Midlands and down to areas such as Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire.

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Morningsd Forecast mentiones Stormas this Afternoon in East Yorkshire. Time will tell of course. Feels humid enough.

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