MDT risk Thurs 31st May

[Nick F]

Haven't taken much notice recently of potential over the Plains, but an Interesting set up this for the afternoon/evening over OK Panhandle, W. Kansas and Sern Nebraska. Triple Point and dry line look to converge over this area later 00z Friday, where SPC gice a MDT risk:

Some storms already over SWern Nebreaska and NW Kansas, look like back biulding:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1216 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK

PANHANDLE...MUCH OF WRN KS INTO S CENTRAL NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO ERN NM AND ERN CO...INTO SERN SD SWD

INTO THE NWRN HALF OF OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL

PA INTO NWRN VA....

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SYNOPSIS...

UNUSUAL AND COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH LARGE

VORTEX CENTERED OVER WRN ND/SD AND COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTH

CENTRAL HALF OF THE U.S. MODELS SEEM TO VARY IN SOLUTIONS AS

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATE

CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO CO...THEN EWD ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND UPPER MS RIVER AREAS.

MEANWHILE...RIDGING REMAINS FIRM OFF THE SRN CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS

AND OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT

DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

IT IS NOT TOTALLY CLEAR CUT HOW EVERYTHING UNFOLDS...BUT MANY OF THE

MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF

THE CO/KS/NEB BORDER AREAS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE NAM...OLD

GFS AND NGM DEVELOP 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO

CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE

TRANSPORT INTO SWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MORNING

SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES DEPICT A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM BETWEEN

MAF - LBB EWD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX INTO EXTREME SERN

OK. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S AND

MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1500-3000 J/KG.

MODELS ALSO INDICATE MODERATE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN

PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX WITH MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-55 KT. THIS

SIGNALS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL THEN FOR MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT

ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME

FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. ISOLATED

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON

POSSIBLY OVER ERN PARTS OF CO INTO NERN NM...BUT MORE LIKELY EARLY

TONIGHT ALONG THE CO/NEB BORDER INTO EXTREME WRN KS AND ALONG THE

NRN NM/TX BORDER WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE

LOCATED. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DEVELOP RAPIDLY EARLY

TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ENHANCES UVVS

ACROSS KS INTO NEB... AND ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. WHILE

THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES INITIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE

OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORMS SHOULD AGGREGATE INTO MORE LINEAR MODE

GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES. MAIN THREAT SHOULD THEN BECOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS WITH MCS/MCC TONIGHT.

Slight risks over next few days over the Mid-West, receding South to TX, OK and Eern NM by day 3.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

[NL]

Yes Nick, its all starting to kick off now by the looks of it...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...

eastern Phillips County in north central Kansas

this includes the city of Phillipsburg.

* Until 415 PM CDT

* at 327 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a

severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near

Phillipsburg... moving east at 35 mph.

* The tornado will be near...

Agra by 340 PM CDT

Kirwin by 345 PM CDT

In addition to the tornado... this storm is capable of producing

golfball sized hail and destructive straight line winds.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a

sturdy shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the nearest

ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

Lat... Lon 3998 9939 3968 9942 3961 9906 3993 9905