UKMO will be wrong regarding summer forecast

[The Eagle]

Now given the fact the UKMO are rather self indulgent in the climate change 'debate' I take it they will readily except that they will be wrong about this year being 'record breaking' for warmth. I notice with interest they have 'updates' on their summer forcast. Quite convienient but I hope no one forgets the stall they set out at the beginning of May. This year would be would be in heatwave territory, if not record breaking according to them. This is unlikely to be the case even with two months left. The fact they have to consider is that no heatwave has yet occurred - unlike previous years at this time and no heatwave is on the horizon with pressure set to remain high to the North - mostly owing to stratospheric temperatures. Did they exclude this in their outlook? Because it seems quite fundamental to me. This year will not be record breaking as much as that may disappoint them. I look forward to them admitting it. I would also like to point out that seasonal forecasts are useless and this proves it. They tried to make a point about their interpretation of climate change by telling all that there would be high heat this year - but its going to backfire as usual. There will be no excessive heat this time out unless stratospheric temperatures take a real dive which is likely - but it will be winter when that happens. So their agenda is not going to plan atm. Pitty.

Any thoughts?

Edited June 7, 2007 by Darkman

[carinthian]

Hi Darkman,

The summer of 1976 recorded widespread heat of +34C across much of Central Britain during the last week of June and July.The previous summer of 1975 produced a heatwave that started in early August. Summers are only hot when high pressure predominates. Considering we are in a run of impressive above average monthly temperatures the Met Office Summer seasonal forecast is still a good call. Still time for some excssive heat advection from the continent as it is still only early summer but latest progs do not indicate this into the Mid-June period.

C

[johnholmes]

its rather amusing and a little sad that people love to misquote what was actually said, be it the first prediction in May or the update at the end of May.

This is the site with their exact words for their press releases.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...herclimate.html

I am not becoming embroiled in did they or didn't they but leave it for anyone to read what they printed not someones version of what was said.

Edited June 7, 2007 by johnholmes

[parmenides3]

As I recall it, the Met forecast for Summer (June, July, August) is for abover average temps throughout, warmer than that in the South, mixed precipitation (above ave in N., below ave in S.), but unlikely to have extremes like '76. Given that 2007 so far (to May) is the hottest on record globally and across the UK, and the second highest in the CET record, suggests that they are doing alright so far. Note also that 'warmer than average' does not necessarily imply 'heat wave', or higher extremes; they quote record extremes as having only a 1/6 chance this year - probably due to the ENSO activity and changes in the AO and NAO.

:)P

[Essan]

As a pointed out at the time, the MetO (experiemnetal) LRF actually pointed towards the probability of this summer being cooler than in recent years ....

[johnholmes]

on a minute scale I know but my average temperature for the first 6 days of June is higher than that for last year at the same time!

Not likely to last mind you.

[The Eagle]

Thanks for those replys guys. Im just putting forward an argument with the aim of having it challeneged to stimulate debate. Fair enough maybe it is too simplistic and possibly the media have distorted what is actually being said but the gist of what the MO did say was that it would be a hot year in the UK. Not only them saying it btw by any means. I dont think anywhere has even reached 27C yet!? - which is unusal for recent years IMO. The averages may be slightly up but the extreme of temperature appears to be well down to me. Esspecially further South where 30C was thought a given at this stage almost for the last few years.

[johnholmes]

the word 'hot' never appeared in any of their press releases D, not as far as I am aware.

This is their original press release way back in April.

likely to be warmer than normal.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.

[Nick H]

Now given the fact the UKMO are rather self indulgent in the climate change 'debate' I take it they will readily except that they will be wrong about this year being 'record breaking' for warmth.

Well we only need every month of the rest of this year to come in at average and I believe we will break the UK record set....last year.

but I hope no one forgets the stall they set out at the beginning of May. This year would be would be in heatwave territory, if not record breaking according to them.

Perhaps you could refer us to that forecast???

[Roger J Smith]

I've stated elsewhere that I think this could be a very warm summer with a record high average CET.

Of course, this is not any sort of certain proposition, and I appreciate the point being made about higher pressures to the north.

At the same time, another feature which catches my eye is the very slack pressure gradient in general through the reliable time frame. I had always associated early to mid June in the British Isles with a fairly high zonal index, at least when I've been there in the past there has been nothing but a steady progression of fronts.

This month so far looks like the precursor to weak high pressure sitting over the southern half of the UK and Ireland, and if heights above that set-up should happen to rise very much, it could easily turn out very warm or hot within a few days without necessarily a lot of warning from the models.

The other thing I've noticed as a conventional indicator of heat to come, is a building height anomaly near 80-90 W which should induce a downstream trough near 50 W and another ridge in the eastern Atlantic. If that pattern becomes slightly progressive it will be similar to two years ago when there was a fair amount of hot weather, but if the flow is also higher and slacker, it could turn very hot as in 2003. Or 2006.

To the extent that the Scandinavian high of the past week is retrograde, I would expect it to translate southwest rather than west, and become absorbed in the slack features further south, possibly raising heights over the UK in the process. This may be masked temporarily by what I expect to be a period of strong cyclogenesis about a week from now, but once that comes and goes with its heavy thunderstorms, the stage may be set for long-lasting ridge development in upper levels and surface highs not far from the British Isles most of the summer.

Seems too good to be true as I may be there for part of July and my previous visits have not enjoyed this sort of good weather. But I'll take it.

[Frosty.]

Now given the fact the UKMO are rather self indulgent in the climate change 'debate' I take it they will readily except that they will be wrong about this year being 'record breaking' for warmth. I notice with interest they have 'updates' on their summer forcast. Quite convienient but I hope no one forgets the stall they set out at the beginning of May. This year would be would be in heatwave territory, if not record breaking according to them. This is unlikely to be the case even with two months left. The fact they have to consider is that no heatwave has yet occurred - unlike previous years at this time and no heatwave is on the horizon with pressure set to remain high to the North - mostly owing to stratospheric temperatures. Did they exclude this in their outlook? Because it seems quite fundamental to me. This year will not be record breaking as much as that may disappoint them. I look forward to them admitting it. I would also like to point out that seasonal forecasts are useless and this proves it. They tried to make a point about their interpretation of climate change by telling all that there would be high heat this year - but its going to backfire as usual. There will be no excessive heat this time out unless stratospheric temperatures take a real dive which is likely - but it will be winter when that happens. So their agenda is not going to plan atm. Pitty.

Any thoughts?

Late last summer / early autumn the ukmo released a winter forecast which hinted at frequent cold spells and we had the mildest/warmest winter since records began, even their updated winter forecast in Oct/Nov hinted at wintry spells. They never admitted they were wrong. Having said that, no other professional forecasters predicted a record warm winter either.

Edited June 8, 2007 by Frosty039