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June 7th - HIGH RISK


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

June 7th sees my 2nd HIGH Risk of the year and we are going to take a Massive Gamble on blowing off the HIGH Risk and not even going for the Moderate Risk, we are going to go for the South East Kansas and Oklahoma Slight Risk, we have a contact in the National Weather Service who has also verified what we are seeing on the Models and has said Oklahoma if it fires could be explosive today, High Temps and big dewpoints with a trailing cold front is our play for my final day. NAM & F5 Data show this area with significant Tornado Parameters at 6-9pm today.

Wish us luck for our 700-800 mile drive today

Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
  • Location: Newbury Berkshire
June 7th sees my 2nd HIGH Risk of the year and we are going to take a Massive Gamble on blowing off the HIGH Risk and not even going for the Moderate Risk, we are going to go for the South East Kansas and Oklahoma Slight Risk, we have a contact in the National Weather Service who has also verified what we are seeing on the Models and has said Oklahoma if it fires could be explosive today, High Temps and big dewpoints with a trailing cold front is our play for my final day. NAM & F5 Data show this area with significant Tornado Parameters at 6-9pm today.

Wish us luck for our 700-800 mile drive today

Paul Sherman

Good luck and safe driving!

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Seems like a good plan Paul. That high risk area has HP cells written all over it. As you say, it is a risk but that's all part of the fun..

Long run.. Hope it's worth it.. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Good news for Paul and Tony, SPC's 16.30 update extends the MDT risk area across SE Kansas down into Oklahoma! So not a bad decision to target this area, seems that great minds (SPC and Paul/Tony) think alike:

post-1052-1181235765_thumb.png

10% Tornado threat included over Paul and Tony's target area too:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/a...70607_1630.html

...WRN MO/SE KS INTO OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER NRN AZ WILL TRANSLATE EWD TODAY

THEN ENEWD OVER SRN KS BY EARLY TONIGHT. THE REMNANT DRYLINE WILL

LIKELY STALL THIS EVENING FROM SE KS INTO CENTRAL OK AFTER MIXING

PEAKS AND THIS SPEED MAX APPROACHES FROM THE W.

MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S IN

THE MOIST SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 70-73 F WILL

RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG/ E OF

THE DRYLINE. THE PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT

OUN/FWD/SGF WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE COOLER AIR IN THE 850-600 MB

LAYER AT AMA/DDC PROGRESSES EWD BY THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTIVE

INITIATION BECOMING MORE PROBABLE FROM ABOUT 22-01Z.

THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL

SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INTO THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL

AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY TEND TO

EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE

INTO AN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Excellent choice, not only closer to where you need to be tomorrow evening but you will

be chasing in 'familiar terrain' ..

Recent visible satellite image.

< Previous MD Next MD > mcd1038.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 071816Z - 072015Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY FROM PARTS OF ERN AND NERN KS THROUGH PARTS OF WRN AND NRN MO. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS FROM NERN KS THROUGH NWRN MO. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG HYBRID DRYLINE-PACIFIC FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH NWRN MO AND ERN KS. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. MID LEVEL WARM AIR WITH -5 TO -6 C/KM AT 500 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE MID LEVEL JET CORE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL LIMIT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO GENERALLY AOB 7 C/KM IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE STRONG 50 TO 60 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM AIR ALOFT...INITIAL UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONGLY TILTED AND STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. DEEP LAYER FLOW IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SOME STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Already seems to be cell activation along the dry line just East of Topeka, KS - expect this to extend further South later.

post-1052-1181242993_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181243011_thumb.png

Some good kinematic parameters over E/SE Kansas too this afternoon, some strong 0-6km shear and 0-1km rel. helicity and shear currently in place looking at SPC hourly meso analysis:

post-1052-1181243208_thumb.png-0-6km shear

post-1052-1181243238_thumb.png- 0-1km storm rel. helicity

post-1052-1181243284_thumb.png - 0-1km shear

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yes, not sure where Paul and Co are now, but an interesting area right now for tail-end development along dry-line currently S and SE of Topeka, KS:

TWX_loop.gif

Satellite shows developing cu at the SW end of squall line:

20070607_2032_ICT_vis.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

hey Nick. that line is certainly giving some potential according to the NOAA warnings. Paul is probably still on the road so we may hear from him if he has a break.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looks like convection is going to kick-off soon over SE Kansas and also further South over Ern OKlahoma. Possiblity of a tornado watch.

post-1052-1181250228_thumb.png

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0327 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN AND CNTRL OK/FAR NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 072027Z - 072200Z

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHALLOW CU SLOWLY INCREASING IN

COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE

OVER SERN KS TO FAR NCNTRL TX. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE

AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER

90S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OBJECTIVE

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG IN SERN KS TO

6000 J/KG NEAR THE RED RIVER.

CAP HAS STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE DAY PER COOLING OBSERVED IN

THE 700 TO 850 MB LAYER ON 18 UTC OUN RAOB. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES

REMAIN WARM /-6C 500 MB/ AND MAY INITIALLY DELAY ONSET OF DEEP

CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER

CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME WARM MIDLEVELS. SURFACE WINDS

HAVE MAINTAINED A WEST..SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR

IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SPITING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING

WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

DESPITE THE LESS THAN IDEAL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONVECTION IS

LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG/EAST OF DRYLINE BEFORE BY 00 UTC. THE AREA

IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

..BRIGHT.. 06/07/2007

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

I have been keeping an eye on the meoscale discussion. got a lot more upbeat since i started looking at 20:00

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK

A very impressive line of storms. Haven't got a clue how far this stretches but it has to be quite a considerable distance! :rofl:

post-7065-1181250764_thumb.jpg

Stewart

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

yep they have been building for the last few hours now

DISCUSSION...WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IN

PLACE ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE VICINITY DRY LINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND

DEVELOP EWD. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY

SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
A very impressive line of storms. Haven't got a clue how far this stretches but it has to be quite a considerable distance! :rofl:

post-7065-1181250764_thumb.jpg

Stewart

Just for you Stewart just over 600miles , looks like initiation will be kicking further south as far as Tulsa very soon..

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Posted
  • Location: Northampton, UK
  • Location: Northampton, UK
Just for you Stewart just over 600miles , looks like initiation will be kicking further south as far as Tulsa very soon.

Impressive, really impressive. It's amazing when you look at the charts with the fronts, precipitation, etc how distinct the line is in all cases.

Stewart

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

i wonder where Paul is now?

just seen this ----

* AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIPTON...OR ABOUT NEAR IOWA CITY...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunny Southsea
  • Location: Sunny Southsea

Looks like most iof the tornado action has been in Wisconsin and Iowa, north of Paul & the team, though some hail has been reported closer to their stated destination: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

Also note that the current temp. in Topeka Kansas is 91F. Ouch. Looking at the latest storm reports, they may be somewhere around some fairly heavy rain, if not now, then soon.

:)P

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 361

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

400 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 400 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF

WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE

OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 357...WW 358...WW

359...WW 360...

DISCUSSION...WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND A WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IN

PLACE ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL OK...CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS

ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE VICINITY DRY LINE NEXT FEW HOURS AND

DEVELOP EWD. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY

SUPERCELL THAT CAN FORM.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

...HALES

Yes Mick.. Seems to be taking some time to fire but there's a nice cloud field developing now on the satellite picture.

post-1669-1181257322_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

seems like they are in for a rough night over there in the states. severe weather seems to be dominating the line south to north of those mid country states

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

You can see by the 12z soundings that OK City ascent showed a much stronger cap than further North over Topeka, KS. Maybe explains why cap is taking longer to break further South:

post-1052-1181258263_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181258274_thumb.png

As Potty says, nice Cu fields SW across central OK down to Nern TX:

post-1052-1181258348_thumb.pngpost-1052-1181258336_thumb.png

2100utc sfc plot positions the SW to NE dry-line where the cu field is generating ahead of:

post-1052-1181258506_thumb.png

Obs chart over KS shows 69-71F dewpoints over SE Kansas but only 35F DPs near Witchita further West of the dry line!:

post-1052-1181258679_thumb.png

Expect Paul and co have headed South towards OK border to be in the moist air SE of dryline waiting for intiation in cu field.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Line now extends all the way to Albilene TX, and its a bit more active on the TX/OK border too

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Impressive cells going up just north of Tulsa (live webcam still)

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