Storms / convective general discussion

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Estofex again:

" However, every storm that roots to the boundary layer will have the potential to be severe given quite favorable veering profiles, and a tornado is not ruled out over the affected region is the afternoon/evening hours. During the night, thunderstorms will likely go on, clustering into mesoscale convective systems."

[lightningfan]

Lightningfan - stunning shot!

With regards to the radar image you posted I have run the animation feature on the Net-Weather radar.

The rainfall across Northern Ireland and Northern England appears to be heading in an easterly direction. The stuff moving up from France is heading in a NNE direction, however the further north the precipitation is the more northerly it is headed and the further south the precipitation is the more NE it is headed... hope this makes sense!

Well I had to read it to myself a couple of times, but it did make sense in the end. Thanks, good to know

[xxsnowflakexx]

I'm enjoying the conversation in here this morning (exciting!) (..and I'd really like to see the rest of your photos lightningfan - great pic)

Edited June 13, 2007 by xxsnowflakexx

[Lightning Hunter]

I lightningfan, lightning is very rare here, but when it does occur over the sea it's truely spectacular. What date was that shot taken?

I've not had any shots since July 26th last year, best was June 2005 and July 1999

[grab my graupel]

Here potty what makes you think he/she comes from a rough area..!!!

good one

[lightningfan]

I lightningfan, lightning is very rare here, but when it does occur over the sea it's truely spectacular. What date was that shot taken?

I've not had any shots since July 26th last year, best was June 2005 and July 1999

I cant think for the life of me when this was taken. It was a truly epic storm, that im ashamed to say snuck up on me, and I didnt seeit coming, but I made it to the clifftop in time. All I can say is that the storm was late in the summer, after July I think. And ill do my best to get the rest of the pics loadedup in the photography section soon

[NL]

Cheers Brian, think ive got me quick wit hat on today, best stay in and lock myself away incase i upset anyone !! :unsure:

[Joneseye]

Storms dying out in France ATM :unsure:

What gave you that impression?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I'm enjoying the conversation in here this morning (exciting!) :unsure: (..and I'd really like to see the rest of your photos lightningfan - great pic)

I was just thinking am I the only one who feels like a 3 year old in a sweetshop LOL

[Lightning Hunter]

What gave you that impression?

I assume it's because sferics have been diminishing all morning and just one thundery cell remains, way down in the southwest atm.

[grab my graupel]

What gave you that impression?

Yes I wondered that :unsure:

Nice latest satellite image showing nicely the cloud formation over Northern France.

I was just thinking am I the only one who feels like a 3 year old in a sweetshop LOL

No

I was exactly the same yesterday when there was a possibility of storms arriving to my area.

sadly it wasn't to be though.

Brian

Just started to rain here!

[Joneseye]

I assume it's because sferics have been diminishing all morning and just one thundery cell remains, way down in the southwest atm.

Fair comment. I would advise peeps to take a look at the post from Nick F in the technical thread to get a feel for what might happen..

From my own personal point of view I wouldn't get too worried about any electrical activity that has disappeared for now. It is still only midday so we haven't had the real heat of the day to work it's magic yet.. plus the fact that there is already some organised activity to our south west is a bonus IMO. Quite often in this sort of setup we are waiting for cells to form, right now we already have a huge mass of unstable air and heavy rain.. :unsure:

[Paul Sherman]

Anyone got the Map for Estofex, what particular area is that text that Beka posted up relating to??

Paul S

[Supacell]

Lightning fan - that picture is truly awesome, one of the best i've seen. You should enter that in the photography competition- it could even rival those that were taken by the guys who went to the States this year. Sorry Paul and crew! :unsure:

I am hoping that tonight i get my first ever south coast thunderstorm on camera. Latest BBC forecast didn't even mention anything about storms for tonight - but i tend to trust the experienced forecasters on this site more.

[justinflavin]

i'm picking up Spanish radio on FM!

must be the sferics in north France?

[Bobby]

I hope some storms finally break through The Great Thunderstorm Wall of Merthyr. Doubt it though.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Anyone got the Map for Estofex, what particular area is that text that Beka posted up relating to??

Paul S

Hang on i'll post it all hun :

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 13 Jun 2007 06:00 to Thu 14 Jun 2007 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 13 Jun 2007 06:25

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential over Scandinavia, British Isles and W of Bay of Biscay yields a south-westerly flow over north-western Europe. Strong mid-troposphere jet streaks are expected to move across southern Scandinavia and north-western Iberian Peninsula, while rather weak winds are forecast south-east of the main upper jet. At lower levels, a wavy frontal boundary stretches from western Iberian Peninsula to northern France, and Baltic States. Warm air advection is expected from northern France to southern British Isles as well as over northern Poland, while cooler air mass spreads into Bay of Biscay/northern Iberian Peninsula and into Germany. While the cool air mass will be rather stable, warm air mass is characterized by inverted-v-profiles up to around 750 hPa near the frontal zone. To the south, rich low-level moisture has developed over Mediterranean, where diurnal heating will likely build CAPE.

DISCUSSION

Southern British Isles, the Channel region, northern France

A cut-off low present W of Bay of Biscay will merge to the long-wave trough present over Scandinavia. Associated upper vort-max/short-wave trough is forecast to accelerate north-eastward into north-western France in the evening hours. This leads to rather strong south-westerly winds over western Europe, and quite strong warm air advection is expected over northern France, and southern British Isles. Air mass now situated over southern France will likely spread into northern France. This air mass is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates as indiacted by latest soundings, and diurnal heating will likely lead to moderate instability during the day. To the north, low-level air mass over the Channel region and southern British Isles will likely be capped, while instability is expected to increase during the day due to the advection of steep mid-level steep lapse rates. Mid-level height falls expected in the range of the short-wave trough will also lead to further destabilization. Convective initiation is forecast along a cold front that moves eastward over western France during the day. Given south-easterly low-level winds over France and weak to moderate mid-level winds ahead of the trough, some deep layer vertical wind shear is expected to lead to organized thunderstorms along the cold front. Low-level veering profiles will also be marginally favorable for supercells, posing a threat of severe hail. Given inverted-v-profiles, severe wind gusts are forecast with the stronger cells. During the day, thunderstorms may merge/organize ahead of cold pools moving ENE-ward over France. Bowing lines may develop, capable of producing severe wind gusts. Especially over northern France, low-level winds are backed to the east, while low-level moisture is also expected to be quite rich along the frontal boundary, and a slight chance for tornadoes is forecast. Further north, low-level air mass is forecast to be rather cool over the Channel and southern British Isles. Given strong QG forcing due to WAA and DCVA, as well as steep mid-level lapse rates advecting northward, convection is forecast to develop that may be elevated over most places. However, every storm that roots to the boundary layer will have the potential to be severe given quite favorable veering profiles, and a tornado is not ruled out over the affected region is the afternoon/evening hours. During the night, thunderstorms will likely go on, clustering into mesoscale convective systems. A moderate inflow of warm/unstable air from the south will likely feed the systems that will spread across eastern France, western Germany, and Benelux until the morning. Main threat will be severe wind gusts along the leading edge in the range of bowing lines, but decreasing vertical wind shear and QG forcing are forecast to lead to weakening of the storms.

Edited June 13, 2007 by *Stormforce~beka*

[justinflavin]

we could do with some storms down south. its been awfully muggy the past few days.

[VillagePlank]

Yes, the area estofex mention coincides (or causes) the area with most risk with the surface low that Nick has mentioned somewhere before. What is interesting is the risk area being further East rather than a line from IoW to Norfolk (so passing NW London, and missing Kent) which is what GFS forecast on the 12z.

Certainly one for radar watching this evening!

[Paul Sherman]

Lightning fan - that picture is truly awesome, one of the best i've seen. You should enter that in the photography competition- it could even rival those that were taken by the guys who went to the States this year. Sorry Paul and crew!

I am hoping that tonight i get my first ever south coast thunderstorm on camera. Latest BBC forecast didn't even mention anything about storms for tonight - but i tend to trust the experienced forecasters on this site more.

But was it taken in June this year :unsure:

[VillagePlank]

Looking at the 6z, it looks like to most organised rainfull will hit the S UK somewhere between 18z and 6z tomorrow - more likely this evening, though. What's surprising is the rapid rate it will pass over the UK.

[Paul Sherman]

Just had a read through their text and it looks like any Storm that roots to the boundary will sadly be over in Northern France, also noted from just reading through is the cold front is likely to be about 200-300 miles just too far south and the only chance for an overnight MCS Is the far South East and possibly staying over in the Channel and Benelux due to the Eastward movement of the expected MCS, In other words dont get your hopes up too much for an Elevated Thunderstorm overnight!!

Paul S

[Guenhwyvar]

BBC weather hasn't even mentioned thunderstorms for today. :unsure: Just heavy showers.

[Bobby]

This shows nicely the big cloud tops across N. Ireland and N. England, and the doom approaching from the south. Big clouds over France too.

Edited June 13, 2007 by Magpie

[dogs32]

what time was that taken

Edited June 13, 2007 by pottyprof
removed image to speed up page loading time.. :)