Storms/Convective General Discussion ...

[Nick F]

General situation today, stalling cold front over Nern England and N. Ireland will bring cloud and outbreaks of rain throughout the day over N. England, N. Ireland and N Wales, mostly dynamic uplift of warm moist air from the South. To the North over Scotland, much more stable cooler drier air will bring a fine day here.

Further South, occluding cold front coming to SW England will bring a band of showers NE across England and Wales, WV imagery suggests drier air arriving aloft to the SW, GFS 500hPa relative humidity charts suggests dry air in the same area- which may aid convection over SWern and Sern areas this afternoon along/behind the frontal boundary - with the possiblity of thunder and hail in any heavy showers this afternoon.

Perhaps drier weather spreading into the SW later this afternoon, frontal showers spreading NE could turn thundery this afternoon as they spread NE over Southern England, Midlands, Wales and later East Anglia, hard to pinpoint where maybe favoured really, as I don't particularly trust GFS CAPE projections this morning after yesterday.

[MP-R]

Great! So it's not a complete loss today in the southwest. Maybe I will get something after all. The net-weather 'will it thunder' forecast says there's a good chance of thunder here tomorrow.

Edited June 14, 2007 by Wibs
Large quote removed to save space

[Paul Sherman]

Anyone watching that storm just across the Channel, absolute Monster of a Storm, now thats what I call a Thunderstorm.

Paul S

[VillagePlank]

Heading out way, too, Paul!

[Paul Sherman]

Having seen numerous Supercells on radar out in the States, that one looks like a Supercell to me, of course it is impossible with radar, but they usually explode within 2 Radar scans out in the Midwest, this storm was not even there 2 hours ago!! Lets hope the Channel Killer does not affect it Village!

Paul Sherman

[Paul Sherman]

Actually I think the Low Countries are in for some serious trouble over the next 4-6 hours, the stuff further west is more dynamic with embedded storms.

Paul S

[StormChaseUK]

Supercell? eh? what you on about nothing there

[dapick2002]

those storms in France do look incredibly intense and have formed from no where...i'd love to be there at the moment!

[Andy Bown]

There was some good convection late this morning, provided sharp showers and a very tropical feel as the sun was shining most of the time too. I think we have the aforementioned ollcluding front at the moment, it's been raining steadily (with heavy bursts) for half an hour, but has been bright throughout because the cloud isn't thick at all.

Once this rain clears it should brighten up, warm up (although it's humid & 20c anyway) and there will be a lot of evaporation to aid convection.

[dapick2002]

Supercell? eh? what you on about nothing there

have a look at the metoffice radar and watch the progression of the storms in northern france over the last 2 hours. you'll see what he means.

[Paul Sherman]

Supercell? eh? what you on about nothing there

Might I suggest you run the radar sequence, I think you will find the 12pm radar very interesting, we are taling about the area where France joins Belgium and "NOT" England

Paul S

[StormChaseUK]

have a look at the metoffice radar and watch the progression of the storms in northern france over the last 2 hours. you'll see what he means.

I have nw radar, avbrief and french radar, nothing much active nevermind supercells.

[Paul Sherman]

I have nw radar, avbrief and french radar, nothing much active nevermind supercells.

:lol: :lol: Yeah right

[pottyprof]

Sheesh that thing has exploded.... really intensified over the last 15 minutes..

[StormChaseUK]

http://meteocentre.com/lightning/eurnw_sfuk.gif few cbs over northern france, orange x and red x heading east from france but nothing major.

have you guys been smoking some thing ? :/

[SnowBear]

Hmmm, think a little more respect in order there danielreal2k, Paul and many others here are experienced storm chasers both here and abroad in the US.

To me what is on the MetO radar is pretty impressive, and looks very active and dangerous for those in its path.

[pottyprof]

Look to the borders of France/Belgium. There was nothing in that area an hour ago..

[Paul Sherman]

http://meteocentre.com/lightning/eurnw_sfuk.gif few cbs over northern france, orange x and red x heading east from france but nothing major.

have you guys been smoking some thing ? :/

Err,

Excuse my ignorance but that is from 2 hours and 15 minutes ago, it is actually 1415pm over in France now

Paul S

[Cableguy]

http://meteocentre.com/lightning/eurnw_sfuk.gif few cbs over northern france, orange x and red x heading east from france but nothing major.

have you guys been smoking some thing ? :/

No but i think you probably have?

hope nothing much moves in across london, going to o2 wireless festival in hyde park later, think i may get a tad wet :lol:

[dapick2002]

hopefully some of those storms make it over to us in one piece!

[Mammatus]

Afternoon guys, still very humid and muggy here with hazy skies. the sunshine is trying to break through now too. Have just seen the latest news24 forecast with Susan Powell and she said some thunderstorms could develop across East Anglia during this afternoon, with kent manly missing out. Interesting times across this part of the world.

Mammatus

Edited June 14, 2007 by Mammatus

[Nick F]

Got my eyes on that MCS coming out of Normandy too, seems to be making a beeline towards the coast of Eastbourne-Dungeness. Could well be an embedded Supercell in there atm over Normandy, GFS prog 30-40 knts of 0-6km deep layer shear over Channel and Nern France this afternoon.

Question is will it survive the journey over the channel, if it's rooted into the boundary layer, the cooler air over the channel tends to dry out the lower levels to make storms elevated on arrival to the South coast, with severe potential reduced.

Distinct dry air intrusion from the West over running these storms over Normandy and the Channel on WV imagery, so the trigger is there.

[Paul Sherman]

Netweather radar picking this up, but just take a Look at the Met Office 1pm radar, I think you will see what we are talking about, it has gone quite messy now and very much like a massive MCS, But it was the 12pm grab that looked most impressive certainly from shape.

Paul S

[Mammatus]

Have just seen the latest radar image, lots happening across Northern France! Incredible how the precipitation has exploded into life during the last hour. :lol: Looking at that I can't see Kent missing out, looks to me like its in the firing line!

Mammatus

Edited June 14, 2007 by Mammatus

[Mammatus]

Come to me..you know it makes sense!!.. :lol:

Tamara

:lol: Hi Tamara, looks like your in the firing line. Some major development to your south.

Mammatus