Is this Year going to be a record wet one in places?

[DR Hosking]

Anyone got any predictions on how wet this year could be? Where I am in central England so far this year has been very wet, the first 5 months have had the following rainfall totals:

January - 66.4mm 126.9%

February - 69.8mm 185.2%

March - 52.3mm 116.2%

April 1.6mm 3 %

May 130.3mm 261.6%

With the noteable exception of April, every month this year has recieved totals substantially above normal, in the case of may getting on to 3 times the normal. With June so far following in the same vane here I wondered if anyone had any predictions on this being a top 10 wet year in some places.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Well, I've had 490mm of rain so far this year, and based on past years, I can therefore expect a total around 1250mm mark.

[Terminal Moraine]

I've recorded 552.8mm up to this morning. In the last 30 years the first 6 months have exceeded 600mm on only 3 occasions, the most being 632.3mm in 1998. With just under half the month left to go I'd say there was a reasonable chance of this being the 4th. The wet weather really would have to be sustained for the rest of the year to beat 2000 which was the wettest year on record here with 1376.9mm.

T.M

[Bottesford]

Quite amazing stats considering how extremely dry April was - and with March not far behind!

[damianslaw]

Interesting statistics there the most notable observation being the exceptionally dry April slapped in between what have been preety wet months re-iterating waht a unique month that was.

Once July is out of the way we enter the 6 month period of the year where would would expect the wettest conditions, so yes a good chance of a very wet year although i doubt the wettest.

[Bobby]

Speaking from personal experience there seems to be a definite trend that things are getting wetter. I can't remember ever seeing so much rain as last Autumn and Winter, it was ridiculous. The climate models have predicted that summers will get drier but this will be over compensated for by more rain in Autumn and Winter, seems to fit in to what I've been seeing recently.

I haven't actually had much rain this month at all though because of the force field repelling all the storms and heavy showers from my area. Not sure of the total but it must only be about 30-50mm.

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Cleadon three of the last four years have been rather dry, and in 2005/06 there was a considerable shortage of rain in parts of the south- so I'm not sure about things getting wetter. 2004 was certainly a wet year for most though.

[Cookie]

we've had a very dry month manerging around 10mm!

which from what I bealive is unusall

[Bessy]

Wouldnt you say it was a touch to early to decide this, we could have a wet first half of the summer, then dry, and a very very dry autumn, that would leave us pretty much okay, but nowhere near record breaking in any places

[mushymanrob]

Wouldnt you say it was a touch to early to decide this, we could have a wet first half of the summer, then dry, and a very very dry autumn, that would leave us pretty much okay, but nowhere near record breaking in any places

lol i agree... a week ago things were bone dry!

[Gavin P]

It just goes to show how things have switched around. In 2006 all talk was of drought, but 2007 has definatly been the year when the Atlanitc came back.

[kold weather]

Hard to tell exactly how the next half of the year goes. The La Nina will possibly promote a more southerly jet however this wil lbe balanced out by stronger blocking in Autumn/early winter which will help balance things out.

It all depends on Autumn!

[DR Hosking]

just totalled the rainfall here for the month so far, were already at 120mm! again over 200% of the monthly average and with still 10 days of the month to go. Ok nearly 70mm of this came in one stormy 24 hour period, but its continuing the trend of wet months. We are now totalling 440 mmm for the year which doesn't sound too bad but were in one of the dryer areas of the country, our average yearly rainfall is 620mm. So we have already had over 70% of the annual average rainfall in less than 6 months. Looking like a wet year in this part of the world!

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

1860: 250.1

1797: 244.4

1830: 229.0

1789: 222.1

1879: 220.7

1766: 217.3

1773: 217.3

1843: 211.8

1997: 203.4

1782: 197.7

1769: 196.3

1852: 196.3

1958: 196.1

1777: 195.1

1768: 194.8

1878: 194.0

1817: 193.5

1924: 189.6

1955: 188.8

1811: 187.9

1932: 186.7

1812: 183.0

1907: 182.4

1967: 182.0

1770: 181.9

1784: 179.9

1912: 179.0

2007 178.4

[Joneseye]

Mr D - certainly shows that it has been wet, but with 10 days to go and an unsettled outlook we should move up the table a few notches

[johnholmes]

Dr H

May we all know where in central England you are please?

It does help if we all put our location in when giving reports on our weather.

many thanks

In 'dry' Doncaster its over 220mm so far this year, and already over 58mm this month, so another month with above average after the very dry April

As an addition, my rainfall is, I believe, about 12-15% too low due to a very protected back garden site.

Edited June 20, 2007 by johnholmes

[DR Hosking]

Sorry John, im In South Northamptonshire, the data I use is from my local weather station in Pitsford just north of Northampton.

[paul tall]

220mm rain here so far with 55mm in June. Its always relatively dry here though in the rain shadow of the Pennines. Nothing at all exceptional here for rain this year, compared to the same period 04,05 and 06.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

That's quite some difference. 40 miles between Paul and I, yet I've received over twice as much rain. God knows how much Borrowdale must have had in the Lakes then.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

1860: 250.1

1797: 244.4

1830: 229.0

1789: 222.1

1879: 220.7

1766: 217.3

1773: 217.3

1843: 211.8

1997: 203.4

1782: 197.7

1769: 196.3

1852: 196.3

1958: 196.1

1777: 195.1

1768: 194.8

1878: 194.0

1817: 193.5

1924: 189.6

1955: 188.8

1811: 187.9

1932: 186.7

2007 183.8

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

1860: 250.1

1797: 244.4

1830: 229.0

1789: 222.1

1879: 220.7

1766: 217.3

1773: 217.3

1843: 211.8

1997: 203.4

1782: 197.7

1769: 196.3

1852: 196.3

1958: 196.1

1777: 195.1

1768: 194.8

1878: 194.0

1817: 193.5

2007 193.4

[kippure]

On a lighter note. Its weather for the Ducks really...... :huh:

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the North East we had a pretty dry March, and it wasn't remarkably wet in May either (my rainfall stats for Cleadon are closely correlated with Paul's from Durham, suggesting that this is representative of the region as a whole). For January-June I don't think precipitation totals will be exceptional- even if June breaks the 100mm mark.

The wettest June on my records is 1997 with 132mm- that looks safe to me.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June periods for England and Wales, the 2007 value is a rough estimate. We have to wait for the official June figures.

1860: 250.1

1797: 244.4

1830: 229.0

1789: 222.1

1879: 220.7

1766: 217.3

1773: 217.3

1843: 211.8

1997: 203.4

2007 198.1

[Weather-history]

100mm or so locally is the latest Met Office warning

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...t_warnings.html