Possible 30c

[richiec]

Possible for 30c NOT to be hit this year....I am wondering if this may happen? It could happen although it is not set in stone much like hitting 30c is not set in stone!

A question for Mr Data........When did we last have s summer where 30c was no hit?

Edited June 20, 2007 by richiec

[Weather-history]

Summer 1993

[mushymanrob]

alot of us havnt seen 25c let alone 30c.

[Bessy]

Ive had 27.1*c so far, we are only 20 days into summer, we could see a major heatwave yet, dont you worry

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

alot of us havnt seen 25c let alone 30c.

It is amazing then, is it not, that absent hot spells the temperature has been comfortably +1.5C above average.

The answer lies in the sea temperature anomalies around Britain which have been +1-2C above average for some time.

I suspect we will get 30C - my guess middle of July.

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i doubt that we will see 30C being reached until 8th-14th August, as i think that July will be quite dissapoiting.

My thoughts aside, with considerable ensemble agreement, we can rule out 30C until at least 7th July.

[Coopsy]

I am gonna go with July 18th to July 25th being a super hot week with 30oC being widespread throughout England

[tinybill]

Ive had 27.1*c so far, we are only 20 days into summer, we could see a major heatwave yet, dont you worry

hit that temp here in aprial!!! in our summer since them its been down hill! :o

[damianslaw]

I'd be very very surprised if somewhere didn't record 30 celsius this year, even if that 30 celsius has to wait until September.

What is quite surprising is as someone has pointed out the number of places who haven't so far recorded above 25 celsius. I don't keep a track of maximum temperatures for my location, but I think I am right in saying that here in Newcastle 21 celsius is the record so far this year? Can anyone verify this, and by the look of things it could be at least sometime after 4th July that we are likely to record such a temperature, very poor indeed..

[DR Hosking]

Weve not recorded 25 degrees yet this year in Northants. Highest has been 24.6 doesn't look like we will this month and the first week of July either. Not sure if this is some kind of record but certainly over the last few years weve recorded days of 27 or 28 by now and the odd 30 degrees too. I would say its fairly uncommon given our central location. I will take a look through the records to see when the last time we didnt record 25 degrees by the end of June was.

[West is Best]

Weve not recorded 25 degrees yet this year in Northants. Highest has been 24.6 doesn't look like we will this month and the first week of July either. Not sure if this is some kind of record but certainly over the last few years weve recorded days of 27 or 28 by now and the odd 30 degrees too. I would say its fairly uncommon given our central location. I will take a look through the records to see when the last time we didnt record 25 degrees by the end of June was.

Not disputing this necessarily, but is that using your weather station or have you double-checked with all the official stations throughout Northants? Not meaning to be a stickler but these things can matter.

.

Loads of places have recorded 25C's however.

[DR Hosking]

thats from the official proper weather station at Pitsford hall, not AWS. They only have records back to 99 and the last year 25 degrees wasen't reached by now was 1999 when it was not reached until the 6th July. Possibility we might beat that this year looking at the forecast. Other than 99 the latest 25 degrees was brokes was 7th june in 2004 and the earliest the 4th May last year. So it might not be exceptional but its certainly unusual for this part of the world not to have hit it by now.

[West is Best]

thats from the official proper weather station at Pitsford hall, not AWS. They only have records back to 99 and the last year 25 degrees wasen't reached by now was 1999 when it was not reached until the 6th July. Possibility we might beat that this year looking at the forecast. Other than 99 the latest 25 degrees was brokes was 7th june in 2004 and the earliest the 4th May last year. So it might not be exceptional but its certainly unusual for this part of the world not to have hit it by now.

OK, thanks.

So being pedantic we can't be certain that 25C hasn't been reached in Northants (a big county) if 24.6C was reached at Pitsford?

[Polar Continental]

At least two stations in this area here in central England have recorded temperatures of >25c this month, my own and this one only around 2 miles away on the 9th.

Paul

[DR Hosking]

im not saying that nowhere in Northants or central England has hit 25 degrees, only that it hasen't here. We seem to have been stuck under fairly perpetual cloud or heavy showers, also got 230% of the average rainfall for the month, not including todays deluge so its obviously been a poor month locally if your looking for hot, dry sunny conditions.

[West is Best]

im not saying that nowhere in Northants

Ah OK. I was just confused by you saying "Weve not recorded 25 degrees yet this year in Northants" when you didn't mean Northants.

[DR Hosking]

OK, thats what I wrote, wasen't what I meant though. Anyway, after a morining oh heavy rain here it seems to be brightening. Still reckon we will not achiesve 25 degrees this month, which im actually fairly pleased about as Im not too fond of hot weather, the odd day or 2 is fine but not weeks on end like last year. Nearly into July and its odd to think that last year July's average daily maximum was 26.8 degrees at Pitsford! Wonder what the odds are of this July not actually having a day where the temperature reaches last years average maximum! slim I would think! Anyway I will stop rambling now,no doubt it just a matter of time before we hit 25 degrees and probably 30 degrees too so Im enjoying this cooler weather while it lasts!

[TEITS]

im not saying that nowhere in Northants or central England has hit 25 degrees, only that it hasen't here. We seem to have been stuck under fairly perpetual cloud or heavy showers, also got 230% of the average rainfall for the month, not including todays deluge so its obviously been a poor month locally if your looking for hot, dry sunny conditions.

No same here because our max temp so far is 23C!.

Just shows what a poor month it has been because last year during the very warm spell in May we hit 27C!.

There isn't any sign of temps +25C in the near future and I find it staggering that we may have to wait until mid July to see such temps. I accept that living in this country we cannot expect such temps all the time but it is unusual for Peterborough not to have seen such temps already.

[West is Best]

Just shows what a poor month it has been because last year during the very warm spell in May we hit 27C!.

This is rather fallacious. As you yourself have urged, there are several indices of what makes a 'good' month and, per contra, a poor one.

The mean temperature this month is very high, officially 'well above' average. That's a fact, not an opinion.

I personally find desperately seeking maxima a poor way of judging a month: and the same is true of desperately seeking minima. Whether or not we agree on that, it is important not to opinionate a month based on one method (maxima) alone.

Incidentally, you also need to get out of your regionalism imho. Some places may have had a poor month, whilst others haven't.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Incidentally, you also need to get out of your regionalism imho. Some places may have had a poor month, whilst others haven't.

I think comment covers most...wouldn't you? :lol:

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

No support for a 15C isotherm before the 9th July, therefore we will be waiting until at least mid-July for 30C.

[Scorcher]

I agree that it looks unlikely that 30C will be reached before mid July. I'm quite confident it will be reached this summer though. I was in Paris during the week and 32C was reached on Tuesday there quite unexpectedly, certainly judging by forecasts last weekend. The warm air that produced this temperature was not particularly far away from the South East corner of England.

Edited June 23, 2007 by Scorcher

[summer blizzard]

We are still awaiting 30C, i can't see it happening until at least the 17th July.

[Optimus Prime]

With the floods, the wet and cold ground and with well below average SSTs to our south west I suspect we'll have to wait quite some days for 30c to eb reached even with a long southerly feed.

[Rustynailer]

We may reach 30C, but I bet it isn't no heatwave, rather here today gone tomorrow.

Thats my angle on things. The Indian summer in September isn't certain either, it never is....

Still everything looks lush and green, on the other hand I am so glad I am not growing any Tomatos, strawberrys, potatos, etc, etc, this year, all that will be left is a sloppy mess if the weather does not turn for the better

Fungi is doing well this year as always in the warm and wet, low nesting birds will have their hands full, actually most birds will.

Then there are the crops in the fields, it could do with drying and the sun shining for a bit soonish for obvious reasons.

Sorry I am digressing. Replying to a possible 30C:- Yes possible but not for very long IMO.

Russ.