Possible 30c

[Nick F]

With no great heat anomalies over the continent now or projected over the coming few weeks by model output (Central Europe Eastwards looking particularly cool - SW Europe warm but not particularly hot), even with a continental feed, there's looks a low chance IMO of temps getting anywhere near 30C this month.

With 'home-grown' heat under high pressure unlikely to get temps upto 30C with shorter days and a weakening sun, we'd need warmth sourced from Iberia or N Africa which aren't particularly hot, atm the current to medium term sfc and upper flow pattern doesn't support a long-draw Serly happening anyway.

[pinball wizard]

Yes no 30C this year officially and i'm very confident we won't reach 30.0C+ this September.

I think 1947 was the last time we reached 30.0C+ after September 15th.

And we all know what a warm winter followed :lol:

[south_holland_uk]

does that mean it will be a really cold winter? ......i hope it is!!!!!!!!!

SHU

Edited September 10, 2007 by south_holland_uk

[West is Best]

does that mean it will be a really cold winter? ......i hope it is!!!!!!!!!

SHU

I still come back to one of my favourites: 01st October 1985 was all but 30C (29.C). The following month was the coldest November of the past 100 years, and February 1986 the 2nd coldest month of all since 1947 - a month no-one ever talks about on here!!! I remember that winter well and there were some staggeringly cold spells.

Nick F - 'low chance'. Yep, I'm happy with that. Just wanted to query the 'no chance'! With British weather such a thing, whilst extremely unlikely at the moment, is not impossible.

[KTtom]

Yes no 30C this year officially and i'm very confident we won't reach 30.0C+ this September.

I think 1947 was the last time we reached 30.0C+ after September 15th.

Oh well, thats global warming out the window then

[Snowyowl9]

I still come back to one of my favourites: 01st October 1985 was all but 30C (29.C). The following month was the coldest November of the past 100 years, and February 1986 the 2nd coldest month of all since 1947 - a month no-one ever talks about on here!!! I remember that winter well and there were some staggeringly cold spells.

Oh to see another autumn and winter like that again winter would be a shock to the sytem.

A couple of classic charts from that autumn mentioned though from summer to winter in a month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119851001.gif

[cheeky_monkey]

And we all know what a warm winter followed

47 -48 was indeed one of the mildest winters of the decade...lol

[West is Best]

Oh to see another autumn and winter like that again winter would be a shock to the sytem.

A couple of classic charts from that autumn mentioned though from summer to winter in a month.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119851001.gif

Great to see that chart again! By 'eck that were cold. I was working at Lister's in Dursley in prep for Africa and I could not believe how cold it was - with the windchill it was well below zero by day with snow flurries on the easterly. In November Fantastic!

[Weather-history]

I still come back to one of my favourites: 01st October 1985 was all but 30C (29.C). The following month was the coldest November of the past 100 years,

November 1985 was the coldest since 1925, so not exactly the coldest November of the past 100 years, infact it would be ranked 6th coldest in the last 100 years B)

An even better example was in 1926, I posted a Times article on the heatwave of mid-September 1926 where maxima got as high as 32C but by the end of October, it was cold with sharp frosts and snow cover in a number of places

[West is Best]

November 1985 was the coldest since 1925, so not exactly the coldest November of the past 100 years, infact it would be ranked 6th coldest in the last 100 years B)

You are wrong.

I chose my words carefully and they are correct. November 1985 is the coldest November of the past 100 years (i.e. 1927-2007). If you disagree with that statement, I'd love to see the data, but I think you'll find it hard to come by B)

If you wish to say November was the 6th coldest in the period 1895 to 1985 (i.e. of the preceding 100 years with preceding referring to the end point of 1985) that's fine by me, but it isn't what I said, which is that November 1985 is the coldest November of the past 100 years. Fact. :lol:

Edited September 11, 2007 by West is Best

[Weather-history]

You are wrong.

I chose my words carefully and they are correct. November 1985 is the coldest November of the past 100 years (i.e. 1927-2007). If you disagree with that statement, I'd love to see the data, but I think you'll find it hard to come by B)

You may have chosen your words carefully but you didn't with your numbers! :lol:

1927 to 2007 is an 80 year period not a 100 year period. If you said in the past 80 years, you would be correct but you said the last 100 years which it isn't

Coldest Novembers since 1907 ie in the last 100 years

1915: 2.8

1910: 3.2

1919/1923: 3.3

1925: 3.6

1985: 4.1

Edited September 11, 2007 by Mr_Data

[summer blizzard]

You may have chosen your words carefully but you didn't with your numbers! B)

1927 to 2007 is an 80 year period not a 100 year period. If you said in the past 80 years, you would be correct but you said the last 100 years which it isn't

Coldest Novembers since 1907 ie in the last 100 years

1915: 2.8

1910: 3.2

1919/1923: 3.3

1925: 3.6

1985: 4.1

And of course the second half of November 2005 had a CET of 1.6C, had the CET for the first half been 4.1C, we could of taken 1915's place, however the first half was the second warmest on record if i remember correctly.

[West is Best]

You may have chosen your words carefully but you didn't with your numbers!

1927 to 2007 is an 80 year period not a 100 year period. If you said in the past 80 years, you would be correct but you said the last 100 years which it isn't

Coldest Novembers since 1907 ie in the last 100 years

1915: 2.8

1910: 3.2

1919/1923: 3.3

1925: 3.6

1985: 4.1

Cough splutter

My cock up!

My excuse? Erm ... sleepless nights cough cough. Dearie me ...

(p.s. but thank you for not being too harsh at my stupidity!)