Possible 30c

[Stu_London]

Thought I would bump this as we are now around the seasonal peak for maximum daytime temperatures

Still nowhere near 30C anywhere in the UK and nothing in the relaible timeframe to suggest that it will be broken

Extrapolating data from the dundee weather site, I note that since 1900, there have been 15 occasions that 30C has not been broken. The "lowest of these" was in 1920 (equalled in 1962) when 27.8C was the highest (a figure I believe we are yet to exceed in 2007).

Obviously there are several weeks remaining where we could exceed 30C, however the odds start to lengthen sharply towards to the end of August. Do members believe that 30C will be breached this year?

Incidently, the hottest day of the year has occured in September, 7 times since 1900 and twice in May

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I suspect (although as I'm stil a complete novice, this is guesswork based on what's happened in past years rather than great meteorological insight) that the SE of the country probably will scrape 30 degrees C at some stage in the next few weeks. Having said that, I'd be surprised if we got it here (Norfolk), and I would be pretty disappointed - my genetics are Celtic, and us Celts don't cope well in searing weather. I never again want a repeat of July last year when, on a few days away to go to an outdoor concert near Basingstoke we roasted for the entire period, especially in the Travel Inn (near Newbury) at night, in beds with duvets (horrible things!)

Even nearby thunderstorms one night failed to cool things down; the next day it was just as hot as it had been previously. Nearly as bad as 1989 and 1990, which I well remember as a kid being ridiculously hot, and worse, IMO than 1995. We don't realise here in Norfolk how lucky we are to have the sea so close by keeping our maximum temps down a notch compared to the Berkshire area. Give me 20-25 degrees tops and 13-14 at night and I'm a happy bunny.

Edited July 28, 2007 by w0033944

[tinybill]

I suspect (although as I'm stil a complete novice, this is guesswork based on what's happened in past years rather than great meteorological insight) that the SE of the country probably will scrape 30 degrees C at some stage in the next few weeks. Having said that, I'd be surprised if we got it here (Norfolk), and I would be pretty disappointed - my genetics are Celtic, and us Celts don't cope well in searing weather. I never again want a repeat of July last year when, on a few days away to go to an outdoor concert near Basing stoke we roasted for the entire period, especially in the Travel Inn (near Newbury) at night, in beds with duvets (horrible things!)

Even nearby thunderstorms one night failed to cool things down; the next day it was just as hot as it had been previously. Nearly as bad as 1989 and 1990, which I well remember as a kid being ridiculously hot, and worse, IMO than 1995. We don't realise here in Norfolk how lucky we are to have the sea so close by keeping our maximum temps down a notch compared to the Berkshire area. Give me 20-25 degrees tops and 13-14 at night and I'm a happy bunny.

i been looking in F1 LAND i cannot see Any sub stained hot weather the reverse if any thing

[West is Best]

i been looking in F1 LAND i cannot see Any sub stained hot weather the reverse if any thing

The key thing is to get that HP over us. I'm not too worried about what FI shows at this stage - it's so unreliable as to be worth next to nothing. The great thing is to see the HP coming across on Monday. It's looking very good.

And, anyway, after all the misery since that glorious April even if it ends up as just one great summer week let's just relish it whilst it's there.

[Stu_London]

The key thing is to get that HP over us. I'm not too worried about what FI shows at this stage - it's so unreliable as to be worth next to nothing. The great thing is to see the HP coming across on Monday. It's looking very good.

And, anyway, after all the misery since that glorious April even if it ends up as just one great summer week let's just relish it whilst it's there.

If the HP sticks around there is a good chance it will bring in a southerly at some stage. May take a day or so longer than normal for temps to rise towards 30C with wet/cold soil temps

[Scorcher]

The key thing is to get that HP over us. I'm not too worried about what FI shows at this stage - it's so unreliable as to be worth next to nothing. The great thing is to see the HP coming across on Monday. It's looking very good.

And, anyway, after all the misery since that glorious April even if it ends up as just one great summer week let's just relish it whilst it's there.

If the HP sticks around there is a good chance it will bring in a southerly at some stage. May take a day or so longer than normal for temps to rise towards 30C with wet/cold soil temps

Yes and this predicted dry spell is good news for people who want the higher temperatures as it will provide a chance for the ground to dry out even if it won't be that warm initially. It looks like most places will have a few consecutive days without rain which is quite something for this summer.

[TEITS]

Yes and this predicted dry spell is good news for people who want the higher temperatures as it will provide a chance for the ground to dry out even if it won't be that warm initially. It looks like most places will have a few consecutive days without rain which is quite something for this summer.

The trouble is we are running out of time!.

Im actually in doubt whether we will record 30C this summer and I think temps in the range of 25-29C are going to be at a premium.

Look at this link below and note all those summers that recorded temps above +30C which just goes to illustrate that this summer hasn't just been notable for it's rainfall but it's lack of high temps.

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/hottest_days.htm

Note the temps in the 60's though especially 1962!, let's hope this is an omen for a record breaking cold winter

[kold weather]

The hard thing wil lbe too keep the high pressure around long enough for a southerly, I actually think however this is one of the best shots we are going to get all summer for the Azores high to beocme established over the Uk. We have a weak low pressure complex over the Arctic and the global teleconnections do finally favor subtropical features to be able to migrate further northwards.

If it can't get established then I think another unsettled spell probably wouldn't be too far away, there are hints right now that northern blocking is about to pulse back up around the 10-15th of august, just hints mind you. If thats the case then the jet could become a little surpressed again at the worst possible time because I suspect we could see quite a few tropical features embedded in the jet flow after the 15th which wil lstrengthen the jet stream yet further and effectivly kill any chance of a settled spell.

However IF the Azores high can build up over the UK over the next 10 days or so then the northern blocking may not be such a bad thing and the strengthening of the jet combined with tropical features may serve to pump up even more heat.

So will we reach 30C, it all depends on what option is the most likely to be right. If its the first forget it, we may get a humid set-up with temps upto say 25-27C but probably nothing above that, if we get the Azores high build strongly nearby then yeah, 30C is quite possible and maybe even upto 32-33C.

[West is Best]

The trouble is we are running out of time!.

No we aren't.

Agree with you KW about this ... although I seem to remember getting a bit of flak last summer for proposing the AZH ridging! What we really need is a bit of displacement.

Anyway, let's just enjoy the summer weather next week: when you see the sun rejoice!

[Gavin P]

Agree Kold. I suspect this next week or two will be do or die time for salvaging something out of this summer. If the Azores High can't get a real foot-hold over the next week or so, I suspect its opportunity will be lost, possibly for the rest of August....

[West is Best]

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/hottest_days.htm

It's a good site, but I personally think Torro is a bit better on this for our national purposes:

http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...es/maxtemps.htm

http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...ghtempsyear.htm

There are another 9 weeks during which 30C has been recorded, and without pushing records it's entirely plausible to see a 30C during any of the next 6 or 7 weeks - basically half the summer left, which is rather a long time.

At the same time I think the obsession with arbitrary figures (25C, 27C, 30C) is a little childish. After what we've been through most of us bar the biggest bores would happily now take some nice clear blue skies, temps well into the 20's and little or no rain. Offer that to the nation and 99.9% will bite your hand off.

[Duncan McAlister]

It's a good site, but I personally think Torro is a bit better on this for our national purposes:

http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...es/maxtemps.htm

http://www.torro.org.uk/severeweather/brit...ghtempsyear.htm

There are another 9 weeks during which 30C has been recorded, and without pushing records it's entirely plausible to see a 30C during any of the next 6 or 7 weeks - basically half the summer left, which is rather a long time.

At the same time I think the obsession with arbitrary figures (25C, 27C, 30C) is a little childish. After what we've been through most of us bar the biggest bores would happily now take some nice clear blue skies, temps well into the 20's and little or no rain. Offer that to the nation and 99.9% will bite your hand off.

Both excellent websites, but I've always wondered why Torro don't include the record daily minima from June-September. I've sent them an email.

Edited July 28, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[Rustynailer]

This Monday high is the best chance we have for a warm spell to creep in and hold in the traditional style. IE it is forecast to only stay for a few days, but it could stay for weeks if circumstances are right. I have 200 tons of timber to extract from very wet woodlands ASAP. Those woods were bone dry in April, it was a complete dust bole I am praying the high stays for a month or so

Russ

[TEITS]

No we aren't.

Agree with you KW about this ... although I seem to remember getting a bit of flak last summer for proposing the AZH ridging! What we really need is a bit of displacement.

Anyway, let's just enjoy the summer weather next week: when you see the sun rejoice!

The problem is though WIB if 30C isn't recorded within the next couple of weeks then the chances of this occuring lessen with each passing day.

It is all very well saying 30C could be recorded over the next 6 weeks but the greatest window of opportunity is from 15th June - 14th August. A good example of what im trying to say is snowfall in April, this has been recorded many times in the past but it's frequency isn't the same as in the months of Jan/Feb.

All we can hope for is the next few weeks bring us some warm sunny spells after what has to be one of the worst summers ever recorded!.

One thing I will pull you up on though is how can you say we are half way through summer!. Sorry but summer is June, July, August and although im no expert in mathematics this makes us 2/3 through summer. If 30C is recorded in September then this will make it a very hot Autumn day not summer.

Edited July 29, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[pottyprof]

I still hang on to what I've been saying and that is that the far SE may just about see 30oC at a push. Anywhere else, I say forget it.... Enjoy the sunny days and the temps that come with them. 20-23 are comfortable for most..

[West is Best]

TEITS ... 30C doesn't lessen in about 2 weeks. With the right set-up, which is all that matters, 30C is easily achievable and extremely likely anytime between now and well into mid-September. The key is the synoptic pattern. We're not yet at the point of no return. If we got to say 10th Sept then it becomes more of an issue because you can have the right set-up but be genuinely fighting the diurnal range. Don't forget 30C has been recorded in this country almost every day from now for the next 10 weeks!

My comment about half-way through summer relies on my fairly firm belief that September is a summer month climatically. I know mushy and you don't agree, but to me it is very much so. I've always believed this ever since as a little boy I had to play rugby at school in seering September heat and thinking it was completely mad. In terms of equinoxal summer we're only just over 5 weeks into a 13 week summer - so not even half way through yet.

To be honest though I do confess that in some ways I couldn't really give a toss about 30C. Forgive me, but there we have it. I don't live in Greece I live in England's green and pleasant land where 30C is thankfully rare. Anything over 21C will do me just fine, especially with a very pregnant Mrs WIB. I think most people in this country would be thankful for small mercies and gladly accept a nice warm summery August, which is what is looking increasingly likely.

[kold weather]

I think what TEITS is getting at is the set-ups have to be that much more condusive for heat as the weeks pass on by, so what would give us 30C now may not quite give 30C in 2 weeks time and so you have to improve the synoptic set-up. Of course 30C is still very achievable at this stage but soon the chance sof it do start to decrease. As for 30C being rare, its far more rare not to reach 30C in a summer then it is to reach it as the stats bare out.

By the way on another note, nice to hear about the baby Richard, hope it all goes well.

Edited July 29, 2007 by kold weather

[Weather-history]

Both excellent websites, but I've always wondered why Torro don't include the record daily minima from June-September. I've sent them an email.

I suspect that info comes from the September 2000 edition of Weather. That edition also doesn't include those June-September record minima.

They do need to recheck their figures, they've updated on some dates but not others.

Edited July 29, 2007 by Mr_Data

[West is Best]

I think what TEITS is getting at is the set-ups have to be that much more condusive for heat as the weeks pass on by

I can't see any evidence to suggest the right set up is less likely to turn up a 30C in August than in July. Indeed I would suggest that because the NH warms as the summer progresses, the highest temps are actually more likely in August than July. Afterall, and this is the proof of the statistical pudding, our highest recoded maxes in this country have come in August not July. 35C has been exceeded in this country right through to 2nd September. There's a very good reason why most of Europe start their summer hols on 01st August: it's the summer month par excellence when conditions should really settle for sunshine and warmth. But for me it's those record maxes that demonstrate that August is the month most likely to yield the highest maxes.

Thanks for the good wishes by the way Kold!

p.s. Annoying that Torro haven't updated those max figures to include last summer!

[londonsnow]

maybe its just me, but 30 degrees or more is fine on the beach or in the shade of a huge oak tree in a country garden in a t shirt and shorts. Wearing a suit on the tube in the centre of London its hideous.

[The PIT]

Congrats West by the way.

Well we've recorded 33C in August 2003 in the 2nd week and first game of the Football season. Awful day. I can remember watching the Sun move towards where I was sat in the Kop it got me ten minutes before the end of the match. At nine the pubs were empty as it was too Hot to do anything and walking home was like being in a oven as the heat was reflecting of the buildings. Hottest evening I can remember.

Edited July 29, 2007 by The PIT

[West is Best]

maybe its just me, but 30 degrees or more is fine on the beach or in the shade of a huge oak tree in a country garden in a t shirt and shorts. Wearing a suit on the tube in the centre of London its hideous.

Yes I personally can't really abide 30C. Yuk yuk yuk. I remember coming up out of the underground car park in London on that terrible day in August 2003 when the thermometre hit 38.5C (the day you probably mention Pit). It was a wall of hideous heat that made it difficult to breathe. Not my cup of tea at all, especially if you are in the city like you say.

Anything over 21C with nice sunshine, little or no rain and a gentle breeze will do me just fine. If you like it hotter, why not stop at a more comfortable 25C? I think a few people forget this is England (Britain) sometimes.

Anyway, today is absolutely gorgeous here: bright sunshine, 20C, light breeze. It's a quintessential English summer's day at last, so time to go outside and enjoy it!

Edited July 29, 2007 by West is Best

[londonsnow]

Yes I personally can't really abide 30C. Yuk yuk yuk. I remember coming up out of the underground car park in London on that terrible day in August 2003 when the thermometre hit 38.5C (the day you probably mention Pit). It was a wall of hideous heat that made it difficult to breathe. Not my cup of tea at all, especially if you are in the city like you say.

Anything over 21C with nice sunshine, little or no rain and a gentle breeze will do me just fine. If you like it hotter, why not stop at a more comfortable 25C? I think a few people forget this is England (Britain) sometimes.

Anyway, today is absolutely gorgeous here: bright sunshine, 20C, light breeze. It's a quintessential English summer's day at last, so time to go outside and enjoy it! B)

i totally agree west. today is perfect. 20 odd degrees, light winds, fresh after the rain. bliss...

[J10]

Congrats West by the way.

Well we've recorded 33C in August 2003 in the 2nd week and first game of the Football season. Awful day. I can remember watching the Sun move towards where I was sat in the Kop it got me ten minutes before the end of the match. At nine the pubs were empty as it was too Hot to do anything and walking home was like being in a oven as the heat was reflecting of the buildings. Hottest evening I can remember.

I went to a league football match on that Saturday, and it was unbearabnly hot .

[Stu_London]

The 2003 event as well as being record breaking was incredibly humid - also the 850s were something mad like 23.5C

July 2006, whilst still uncomfortably hot was slightly more bearable, 850s were about 19C and the humidity was a bit lower (dryer air I am guessing allowed the atmosphere to warm more between the layers)