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Possible 30c


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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
I think what TEITS is getting at is the set-ups have to be that much more condusive for heat as the weeks pass on by, so what would give us 30C now may not quite give 30C in 2 weeks time and so you have to improve the synoptic set-up. Of course 30C is still very achievable at this stage but soon the chance sof it do start to decrease. As for 30C being rare, its far more rare not to reach 30C in a summer then it is to reach it as the stats bare out.

By the way on another note, nice to hear about the baby Richard, hope it all goes well.

That is exactly what im saying KW.

If WIB bothers to read our posts properly he will realise that we are not saying 30C isn't achieveable now but the fact that once you enter mid August onwards the chances of reaching 30C decrease with each passing day. This isn't surprising because once you enter the latter stages of August the first signs of Autumn appear i.e shorter daylight hrs, cooler evenings.

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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
That is exactly what im saying KW.

If WIB bothers to read our posts properly he will realise that we are not saying 30C isn't achieveable now but the fact that once you enter mid August onwards the chances of reaching 30C decrease with each passing day. This isn't surprising because once you enter the latter stages of August the first signs of Autumn appear i.e shorter daylight hrs, cooler evenings.

Seems fair enough to me, have a look at the daily records (no, not the Scottish paper!) for Feb

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/hightempsyear.php ://http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britw...htempsyear.php

and see how the maxima start to increase towards the end with the available daylight. Similarly, August will start to see the opposite effect with the lessening daylight, all the really big records are during the first ten days. As you say, still perfectly possible though.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Its the third consecutive meterological summer month that hasn't recorded 30C anywhere.

August 2006, June 2007 and now July 2007

September 2006 recorded 30C, so the highest maximum recorded from August 06 to July 07 was during September.(30.2C at Heathrow)

Infact, it could be the "lowest" highest maximum recorded in any 12 month period since possibly July 1993 -June 1994

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
If WIB bothers to read my posts properly

Forgive me, for it's true that I don't always read your posts very carefully: although I do diligently read KW's posts which I admire even when I don't necessarily entirely agree with him.

However, on this occasion I don't see anything to suggest my take isn't the more correct one. The highest maxes ever recorded in this country have generally been in August, not July. The NH warms up and the opportunities for high maxima increase. August is the proper summer month: the holiday month for most of Europe. Historically and statistically 35C has been exceeded more often in this country in August than in July (I'm reliant on Torro for that info ...). 35.6C has been reached as late as 2nd September.

You are right though that towards the end of the month one frequently starts to notice the cooler evenings. Whether this can be described as 'the first signs of autumn' is a moot point. It's a time of year I adore, and I desperately hope for a proper autumn. Realistically I know this means waiting until the end of September. It's the first week or so of October that I really want a biting cold spell to bring us a proper autumn: golden October and all that. Much before Sept 21st and it's whistling in the wind because high temps are still possible, and usually occur, right through September.

I still don't see the need for an obsession with extremes. We live in a green and pleasant land with weather which seldom is too hot or too cold. Those who desire 30C's in summer and a repeat of 1962-3 in winter are always likely to lead disappointed lives I fear, unless climate change manages to alter both ends of the spectrum. I suspect though that we're in for a much warmer August than last year ...

Edited by West is Best
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Personally Id love 30C starting on the 26th August as its my Annual 3 weeks Summer Holidays-

35C even 40 C I can iay in- Perhaps I was a lizard in a former life-

In August 2003 I was sunbathing down at yalding on that hottest day-

As for 30C this year- well- its of course still achievable & just because July & june have been poor that doesnt automatically indicate that August will follow suit-

All it means is the sun will have to work a little harder in the saturated areas to lift the temperatures-

regards

Steve

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well today it''s getting some help with very dry air across the country. Should lead to a cold night as well even more so if the breeze drops out.

Country file going for 26C this week in the SE and the week continuing settled for most of the country expect NW areas of Scotland maybe N Ireland at times.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Some chance of a 30 C reading on Friday or Saturday 3-4 August from the current maps, although 27-28 C seems more likely to be the max, however you're talking about a national high and some place could always get up to that mark if 26-27 C is widespread. There certainly is a trend towards a lifting jet stream and higher surface pressures later next week. Also upper level temps show enough of a rise to justify predictions into the mid or high 20s. Would say 30% chance for 30 C in that period, 50% if you include Sunday and Monday.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

As regards to this year/summer we are running out of time to reach 30c. This settled spell won't be around that long. We may just scrape somewhere over the next week....probably Heathrow is my favourite for this, but sub 30c is more of a fav. In fact around 10th is may hottest day prediction.

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Forgive me, for it's true that I don't always read your posts very carefully: although I do diligently read KW's posts which I admire even when I don't necessarily entirely agree with him.

However, on this occasion I don't see anything to suggest my take isn't the more correct one. The highest maxes ever recorded in this country have generally been in August, not July. The NH warms up and the opportunities for high maxima increase. August is the proper summer month: the holiday month for most of Europe. Historically and statistically 35C has been exceeded more often in this country in August than in July (I'm reliant on Torro for that info ...). 35.6C has been reached as late as 2nd September.

You are right though that towards the end of the month one frequently starts to notice the cooler evenings. Whether this can be described as 'the first signs of autumn' is a moot point. It's a time of year I adore, and I desperately hope for a proper autumn. Realistically I know this means waiting until the end of September. It's the first week or so of October that I really want a biting cold spell to bring us a proper autumn: golden October and all that. Much before Sept 21st and it's whistling in the wind because high temps are still possible, and usually occur, right through September.

I still don't see the need for an obsession with extremes. We live in a green and pleasant land with weather which seldom is too hot or too cold. Those who desire 30C's in summer and a repeat of 1962-3 in winter are always likely to lead disappointed lives I fear, unless climate change manages to alter both ends of the spectrum. I suspect though that we're in for a much warmer August than last year ...

Blimey please read my posts carefully WIB.

Im not saying 30C is more likely in July and if you read my posts I have never said that. What I am saying is that if 30C isn't reached within the first 2 weeks of August then the chances of this occuring lessen with each passing day. Now of course 30C can be reached in September but this isn't as likely to occur than say the window between mid July - early August. You can use this example in the same way as an ice day in March because this is still possible but isn't as likely as say between 1st Jan-14th Feb.

So let me summarise once again so you understand.

Yes 30C is possible, No 30C isn't more likely in July, Chance of 30C decrease towards latter part of August and if you disagree with this then you obviously have found a way of preventing the earth orbiting the sun :) .

By the way I am discussing 30C because the thread is titled "possible 30C" :)

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Just looked at the ECM 0z ensembles for that Dutch town whose name escapes me but I noticed not one ensemble actually hits the 30C mark.

De Bilt?

I would say that based on the available output that if 30C is going to be reached, the most likely time will be from the second week of August thorugh towards the end of the month.

Less likely, though still possible thorough the first week or so of September.

Into the 2nd half of September, it has to be in the "highly unlikely" category.

Edited by Stu_London
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

12th of August is the statistical thermal peak, so of we dont hit 30C on sunday, we may have one more chance before the chances diminish a lot.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Whilst I agree that chances do start to diminish from the last week of August onwards (not mid-august in my opinion), I believe it's still plausible for 30C to be reached for the first half of September, and not impossible for the second half.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
What I am saying is that if 30C isn't reached within the first 2 weeks of August then the chances of this occuring lessen with each passing day.

Actually even this is only partially correct since it's all down to synoptics. If you have a northerly in July it's about 1000x less likely to reach 30C than under a HP on 1st September. So whilst the thermal peak is mid-August (well done for finding that date SB) the statistics need to be balanced by synoptics. I would suggest therefore that summer 2007 is something like 1000x more likely to produce a 30C in August than in July if we can project the likely future synoptic as reality, against that which we know has occurred.

Edited by shuggee
I like constructive posting
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Looks like this Saturday to Monday is the first real opportunity of squeezing a 30C

We would need a slight upgrade to the charts in respect of where they are now however.

After that it looks like its slightly downhill with for a week or so which us into the point where the maximum temp graph starts to fall.

By the way, I am not convinced the peak for max temps is 12th August. If you look at Philips daily graphs on www.climate.uk.com the line seems to flatten out at the end of July suggesting maybe a straight line for the first few days of August before the drop begins. Minima-wise the upward curve seems to take longer for some reason.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I think the best chance would come on either the Saturday and the Sunday. Thickness do look pretty decent and the upper air temps probably are nearly high enough though would probably have to go up another 1-2C to make 30C more likely but given still long days with lots of sunshine 30C may just be possible locally however its a slim chance though better then anything else we've seen this summer mind you!

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Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

I would say that 30c would easily be acheiveable right into September this year, simply because there is so much hot air over Eastern Europe, which isn't that far away, with the right synoptics, we could see the hottest September on record, unlikely, but the heat is sitting there waiting.

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Posted
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
  • Location: From North Wales but now in England on the Notts border
I would say that 30c would easily be acheiveable right into September this year, simply because there is so much hot air over Eastern Europe, which isn't that far away, with the right synoptics, we could see the hottest September on record, unlikely, but the heat is sitting there waiting.

The hottest September ever would suit me perfectly. We deserve it after the rain we have had over the past few weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Ayr
  • Location: Ayr
The hottest September ever would suit me perfectly. We deserve it after the rain we have had over the past few weeks.

I'm bored of warm Septembers, there have been too many in recent years and they spoil the following winter (so the theory goes).

I'd rather have a warm August - although one without 30C would certainly be a noteworthy stat since there hasn't been a year without 30C since 1993.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
I'm bored of warm Septembers, there have been too many in recent years and they spoil the following winter (so the theory goes).

I'd rather have a warm August

Snap. I desperately wish for a proper autumn. It's the season bar all others that seems to me to be getting killed off, and it's my favourite season. I love, absolutely love, the smell of bonfires and the chill on your face, and wading through leaves of golden brown and ochre. Magical time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Sounds like 1993's your year then WIB. Mild winter/Cold Autumn

I'd love that ... although I do have to confess something else here (shhhh, don't broadcast this too loudly): with a little WIB on the way I would so love him to be able to play in the snow sometime. Magic.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
I would say that 30c would easily be acheiveable right into September this year, simply because there is so much hot air over Eastern Europe, which isn't that far away, with the right synoptics, we could see the hottest September on record, unlikely, but the heat is sitting there waiting.

On the other hand you could easily say the same for -18c in winter with all that cold air sitting over eastern Europe just

waiting for the right synoptics to bring it this way. Unfortunately it doesn't happen and as be sitting over eastern Europe it may as well be over China.

I sincerely hope the hot air stays right where it is, but that in winter the cold air floods this way as if were coming home.

T.M

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