Possible 30c

[WBSH]

I wouldn't say a warm September would "kill the chances" of having a proper autumn. Remember September is only one of three autumn months, and I class the beggining as late summer anyway. Plus a period of dryness and cool mornings in early autumn can brighten the colour of the leaves. Autumns such as 2001, 2003 and 2006 had great leaf colour from my memory.

I personally wouldn't mind if it didnt reach 30c anyway in this country over the summer. I'm quite enjoying the temperatures my location has had the last couple of days - 21/22c sunny with a light breeze - perfect.

Edited July 31, 2007 by WBSH

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I personally wouldn't mind if it didnt reach 30c anyway in this country over the summer. I'm quite enjoying the temperatures my location has had the last couple of days - 21/22c sunny with a light breeze - perfect.

Same here - I was fruit-picking today and it was gorgeous - classic English summer weather. :lol:

[summer blizzard]

Actually even this is only partially correct since it's all down to synoptics. If you have a northerly in July it's about 1000x less likely to reach 30C than under a HP on 1st September. So whilst the thermal peak is mid-August (well done for finding that date SB) the statistics need to be balanced by synoptics. I would suggest therefore that summer 2007 is something like 1000x more likely to produce a 30C in August than in July if we can project the likely future synoptic as reality, against that which we know has occurred.

True, but the statistical average states that by September 1st assuming the same synoptics, you have less chance of 30C that on the 20th July, despite both being equally close to the thermal maxima, lapse rates are decreasing, and the downward trend in average temperature is faster than the upward trend in temperature during summer, the reverse is true in winter.

[kold weather]

Still a chance of aseeing 30C this weekend IMO but its very much in the balance and I'd suspect the highest max will end up being below 30C but its possible. A far greater chance is recording the warmest day of the year in terms of maxes, has to beat something between 26-27 I believe which is more then makeable in the usual heatspots on Saturday and indeed I wouldn't rule out 30C on Saturday though the best shot will be Sunday IF the heat can hold on that long in the SE.

Edited August 1, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Yep looking more likely we are gonig to hit 30C sometime this weekend, the beeb now going for 29C this Sunday and no doubt somewhere will locally be a little above this temp unless the breakdown comes through sooner then expected probably somewhere close to the London region. 26-28C could be widespread across England and Wales, cooler to the NW of the frontal boundary.

[Stratos Ferric]

True, but the statistical average states that by September 1st assuming the same synoptics, you have less chance of 30C that on the 20th July, despite both being equally close to the thermal maxima, lapse rates are decreasing, and the downward trend in average temperature is faster than the upward trend in temperature during summer, the reverse is true in winter.

SB, they aren't equally close to the thermal maximum, and though there's not a load in it, with significantly shorter days beyond the max than before it those 5-10 days make enough of a difference for 30C to be far less likely come early September.

[Bobby]

Has there been a 30c yet this year? Don't think there has been...

[West is Best]

SB, they aren't equally close to the thermal maximum, and though there's not a load in it, with significantly shorter days beyond the max than before it those 5-10 days make enough of a difference for 30C to be far less likely come early September.

But we shouldn't ignore the residual warming in the NH which has an impact I think, though clearly for us more so on a southerly draw. It's not just about the thing in the sky, but also about ground and air heat. We've had 30C right through to the start of October in this country. Not convinced we'll see one this weekend but I'd anticipate it at some point during August.

Absolutely boiling in Exeter today. Too hot for me. I've escaped back to my Atlantic retreat which is much nicer: a lovely sea breeze blowing the 10 miles inland and much cooler thankfully. But each to their own!

Edited August 3, 2007 by West is Best

[Duncan McAlister]

Bah, humbug

It's not going to make any difference to me, it's not going to get anywhere near that in Ayr or anywhere in Scotland for the rest of the year. I wanted a year without 30C in the British Isles - we haven't had one since 1993 and it would be a nice statistical quirk for the hottest (second hottest?) year on record not to achieve the temperature. Now it looks as if this weekend might just nose past it again!

[Weather-history]

Absolutely boiling in Exeter today. Too hot for me.

Weatheronline maximum for Exeter today says 20C. Are you taking the mick?

[Spirit of 1740]

Bah, humbug

It's not going to make any difference to me, it's not going to get anywhere near that in Ayr or anywhere in Scotland for the rest of the year. I wanted a year without 30C in the British Isles - we haven't had one since 1993 and it would be a nice statistical quirk for the hottest (second hottest?) year on record not to achieve the temperature. Now it looks as if this weekend might just nose past it again!

Yes. However, at least next week is look cool in compensation.

[West is Best]

Bah, humbug

It's not going to make any difference to me, it's not going to get anywhere near that in Ayr or anywhere in Scotland for the rest of the year. I wanted a year without 30C in the British Isles - we haven't had one since 1993 and it would be a nice statistical quirk for the hottest (second hottest?) year on record not to achieve the temperature. Now it looks as if this weekend might just nose past it again!

Having just looked at the GFS you might still get your wish Duncan! You never know. Actually I'd be quite amused because it might put paid to some of the more ridiculous comments about climate change in the media, although I'm not holding my breath on that!

I once spent 2 weeks in Ayrshire in the summer. It wasn't exactly hot, but it was lovely. And the locals were just some of the nicest people I've met on the planet. Lovely part of the world.

(Played a round at Turnberry - caught a 2 and half pound perch, saw skuas out on a boat trip ... magic)

Weatheronline maximum for Exeter today says 20C. Are you taking the mick?

Not in the sun it wasn't. Must have been well past 30C. Really clear sky seemed to make the sun feel absolutely boiling. Yuk yuk yuk.

(But do you check up my every post? )

Edit - think it went higher than that anyway Kevin having just looked back at it. It was still 20C at 15.50 and it seemed hotter than that earlier. My own station went over 25C but I think it might be suspect lol!

Edited August 3, 2007 by West is Best

[Spirit of 1740]

Though even the very cool summer of 1922 exceeded 90F (yes, in May, but we are not being picky). So it's really a bit of a lottery when it comes to yearly maxima and not something to beat yourself up about.

[snowray]

Well its been around 25c in parts of the South east today, London recording just below and Gravesend just above the 25c, with Sunny spells around but also a fair bit of cloud around at times, so 30c could well be achievable on Sunday. I have a sneaky suspicion that with a Southerly breaze expected it could be our old friend Gravesend that will break the barrier or at least get close, with London 2nd.

[Duncan McAlister]

Having just looked at the GFS you might still get your wish Duncan! You never know. Actually I'd be quite amused because it might put paid to some of the more ridiculous comments about climate change in the media, although I'm not holding my breath on that!

I once spent 2 weeks in Ayrshire in the summer. It wasn't exactly hot, but it was lovely. And the locals were just some of the nicest people I've met on the planet. Lovely part of the world.

(Played a round at Turnberry - caught a 2 and half pound perch, saw skuas out on a boat trip ... magic)

Yup, great coastal scenery - and I'll be there when the Open returns to Turnberry in 2009!

When the UK gets a hot summer (1995, 2003, 2006 from memory) we tend to be very warm too with temps brushing 30C, but no more than this (I think last July 19th's 31.1C at Prestwick Airport may have been the record). Highest temperatures in Scotland usually recorded further south and inland in the Dumfries & Galloway/Borders region (32.9C the record).

[TEITS]

Weatheronline maximum for Exeter today says 20C. Are you taking the mick?

I think the sunshine has gone to WIB head!.

Max temp at Exeter AP today was 20C which was reached between 14.30 -16.30.

The max temp here in Peterborough was 23C and yet we still haven't been able to break into 24c so far this year which is incredible. We have reached 23C on quiet a few occasions but never 24C although we should be able to over the weekend.

What doesn't look likely is 30c being reached this weekend although a few spots may reach 28C. Considering the model output the chances of recording 30C are decreasing all the while and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekends temps happen to be the highest of the summer!. All the while the summer clock is ticking and autumn is just around the corner <_< .

Edited August 3, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[hotsummer]

I think the sunshine has gone to WIB head!.

Max temp at Exeter AP today was 20C which was reached between 14.30 -16.30.

The max temp here in Peterborough was 23C and yet we still haven't been able to break into 24c so far this year which is incredible. We have reached 23C on quiet a few occasions but never 24C although we should be able to over the weekend.

What doesn't look likely is 30c being reached this weekend although a few spots may reach 28C. Considering the model output the chances of recording 30C are decreasing all the while and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekends temps happen to be the highest of the summer!. All the while the summer clock is ticking and autumn is just around the corner <_< .

The hottest day of the year will be 27th November 2007 at 90f odd. Oh that is because I will be in Goa...just as well though. I reckon 27c on Sunday.

[weathernewbie]

I think the sunshine has gone to WIB head!.

Max temp at Exeter AP today was 20C which was reached between 14.30 -16.30.

The max temp here in Peterborough was 23C and yet we still haven't been able to break into 24c so far this year which is incredible. We have reached 23C on quiet a few occasions but never 24C although we should be able to over the weekend.

What doesn't look likely is 30c being reached this weekend although a few spots may reach 28C. Considering the model output the chances of recording 30C are decreasing all the while and I wouldn't be surprised if this weekends temps happen to be the highest of the summer!. All the while the summer clock is ticking and autumn is just around the corner <_< .

Having just come back from the med, i welcomed the much cooler UK temperatures this year.

But it is rather strange that as TEITS has stated, many parts in this area have yet to break into 25C and its August now.

I suspect that will change in the next day or so, but again beyond this weekend. Not looking all that great. <_<

[Andy Bown]

To be fair to WIB I think he felt it was hotter than 20c because it has become very humid through the afternoon. The warmth earlier in the week was with low humidity.

[Scorcher]

It can feel hot without actually being hot statistically. If you're sheltered from any wind and in direct sunlight at this time of year it does feel 'hot' as the sun is 'hot' as it's summer. That's what WIB means I'm sure. I don't think there's anything more irritating on these forums than smart alec weather fans needing everything to be proved statistically- if it feels hot it feels hot, you have no idea about the circumstances of this perceived 'heat'.

[Lincs Observation]

Hi & Evening all

well today was a fantastic day, i snook of work today for some R&R (pleasures of been self employed) and went over to potten to pick up a few things, then to Old Warden near Biggleswade to GM Growers for a look see. Anyway to cut to the chase my car temp clock read 29oC then on the way back home it dropped to 27oC at Barton Le Clay before rising to 28oC by the time i arrived back in Luton. I know that the temp clock on any car is not entierly accurate due to so many factors but in my eyes we nearly got to 30oC in a unmeasured instant on clearly a fantastic day in what has been a dire summer.

LO

[West is Best]

It can feel hot without actually being hot statistically. If you're sheltered from any wind and in direct sunlight at this time of year it does feel 'hot' as the sun is 'hot' as it's summer. That's what WIB means I'm sure. I don't think there's anything more irritating on these forums than smart alec weather fans needing everything to be proved statistically- if it feels hot it feels hot, you have no idea about the circumstances of this perceived 'heat'.

Yes, absolutely. It was Scorchio in the sun here, so the max of 22.8C down this way felt much hotter out of the breeze. Got sunburnt. Too hot for me. I'm sure if TEITS could have got down here he'd have loved it, though he'd probably have found something to complain about.

26.1C topped in London today, and the Met Office are suggesting 27C tomorrow and 29C, possibly 30C on Sunday. We may be shy of that figure, though I notice today the Met O were much more interested in whether the old 80F mark was reached (26.7C).

Does it matter? Nah. Most of the sane country will just be enjoying the summer weather. For me and Mrs WIB it's already too hot, and I'm only thankful we're no longer in boiling London. But each to their own!

[SP1986]

Yes, absolutely. It was Scorchio in the sun here, so the max of 22.8C down this way felt much hotter out of the breeze. Got sunburnt. Too hot for me. I'm sure if TEITS could have got down here he'd have loved it, though he'd probably have found something to complain about.

26.1C topped in London today, and the Met Office are suggesting 27C tomorrow and 29C, possibly 30C on Sunday. We may be shy of that figure, though I notice today the Met O were much more interested in whether the old 80F mark was reached (26.7C).

Does it matter? Nah. Most of the sane country will just be enjoying the summer weather. For me and Mrs WIB it's already too hot, and I'm only thankful we're no longer in boiling London. But each to their own!

Absolutely I agree too, and the problem is quite a few people will look at the charts and say oh no its 15C its gonna be cool! But in reality if its very humid, especially in rain itll feel warm.

its something I bang on about time after time, and never get listened to, however its important, because a person can fill his boots with all the stats he/she wants, but it will never tell the real story of what was actually experienced.

[West is Best]

Thanks Stephen - exactly where I'm coming from.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember an interesting case of that at Lancaster University. I could've sworn that the summers felt a bit warmer there than in Cleadon (I say this, having spent part of summers 2003, 2004 and 2005 at both locations), yet statistically the average Lancaster maximum for July/August is actually a couple of tenths of a degree lower.

I reckon that lower average wind speeds were probably a significant factor. This might come as a surprise, since Lancaster has a reputation for being windy, but I do remember seeing a mean wind-speed map of Britain which showed that Tyne & Wear is windier, on average, than north-west Lancashire.