Metoffice tropical storm prediction 2007

[Optimus Prime]

The Met Office has today released its Atlantic tropical storm frequency forecast for the 2007 season.

Ten tropical storms are predicted as the most likely number to occur in the North Atlantic during the July to November period, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range seven to 13. This represents below-normal activity relative to the 1990-2005 long-term average of 12.4.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070619.html

[kold weather]

Note the timescale of July-November, and remember we've had 2 storms already in May and June so thats not totally true, the range is between 9-15 storms for the totals of the season.

Also I really don't think much weight has to be given to the SST's in the tropical region...ample proof was last season, where we had the second highest SSt's EVER and still managed barely the long term average of 9.6. Shear is a far greater importance then SST's, esp given usually the SSt's in the deep tropics will always be hot enough for tropical cyclones come August/September.

Still its interesting, I do have to note that also its a HUGE range, I think at least 60% of all seasons have had something in that range!!!

Will be interesting to see how it does, they forecast a mean of 10 more storms this year, pretty damn close to average.

[Stuart]

I think the air will be lot more unstabe Tomorrow :o

OPPs worng topic can a mod move it