when will the rain stop?

[DR Hosking]

Good news the rain for Wednesday is likely to be fragmented and not amounting too much. I like how the Beeb keeps getting the experts in who blame the weather on La Nina. We haven't got on it's neutral. Also the papers I've read on this suggest that you need a fairly strong La Nina to make much differance on this side of the pond. Overall the reason probably lies in a fairly large number of factors and not an none existant La Nina.

Agreed, I saw the Beeb blaming La Nina last night! Also noticed the Government and the media were quick to jump on the Global Warming band warming, blaming it for the floods! Obviously the floods are nothing to do with particular synoptics and rainfall patterns/ location then! So I assume the 1947 flood was due to global warming and not the weather then? Also the winter of 1963 must have been caused by global warming then rather than the weather synoptics! I would have thought the beeb would have more sense.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 377.8

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 257.2

[nick sussex]

Agreed, I saw the Beeb blaming La Nina last night! Also noticed the Government and the media were quick to jump on the Global Warming band warming, blaming it for the floods! Obviously the floods are nothing to do with particular synoptics and rainfall patterns/ location then! So I assume the 1947 flood was due to global warming and not the weather then? Also the winter of 1963 must have been caused by global warming then rather than the weather synoptics! I would have thought the beeb would have more sense.

I agree its all a bit tiresome now when every severe weather event gets put down to GW! The 1947 flooding was caused by the previous winters record snowfalls melting coupled with lots of rain, we've had other summers like this but the media just find it easier to blame GW. The government can therefore justify its obsession with guilt tripping every person over their carbon footprint and an excuse to stick more tax on fuel and airline travel and get away with fortnightly bin collections all under the guise of saving the planet. Just really another excuse to rip off tax payers but they dont mind spending billions on a war sold on a lie and seeing people come back in body bags!

[Bobby]

It's ridiculous to say that global warming CAUSED these floods, but as we are warming, these things will become more common. More heat = more evaporation = more rain. It's simple really. So, expect more of this in the future, because we are warming up, and because there is more heat around to create these tropical bursts of rain.

[londonsnow]

i tend, albeit cautiously, to agree

i tend, albeit cautiously, to agree

thats to nick sussex

[SteveB]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 377.8

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 257.2

Thanks Mr Data, I think this current period will take some beating.

[tinybill]

Can’t see it stopping after tomorrow for the next 4 days as for Sunday its needs careful looking at it could turn a bit horrible

[suffolkboy_]

How are these rainfall totals for England and Wales calculated, as obviously it varies alot over the country. Is it done in a similar way to the CET?

[kold weather]

One of the most impressive stats is the fact we are 26th in the wettest May-August periods and we are still in July. Its still going to take a lot however to beat 1879 and any long settled spell from now on will make that total very tough to get too, though we do have a lot of time to be fair.

As for La Nina causing this bad weather...I've been through that subject a lot over on TWO, I just can't see how a very weak signal can be blamed, indeed my own stats show the northern blocking was the main driver and stratospheric warming promoted this combined with a easterly QBO, both these signals were way stronger then any La nina signal.

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 378.2

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 257.6

Wettest May-August periods for England and Wales

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

1828: 428.3

1830: 421.2

1829: 412.9

1931: 411.9

1768: 408.3

1924: 406.5

1792: 401.5

1852: 399.2

1958: 394.7

1903: 393.2

1789: 388.7

1878: 388.5

1954: 387.1

1816: 385.9

1843: 385.4

1799: 382.2

1777: 381.9

1839: 378.4

2007 378.2

[Terminal Moraine]

The 2007 May-July period almost in a league of its' own bearing in mind the relatively small differences between years in the places below it.

I would think the June/July record is also in danger of falling, contrary to my thoughts a few days ago, particularly if the forecast of heavy rain on Sunday materialises.

May-August much too early to call yet but I would think, even if the Azores high puts in an appearance, there's a good chance of a top 6 finish and August hasn't even begun.

Relatively this must be comparable with Autumn 2000.

T.M

[Michael Winston]

Hi Mark, Rome was realy good last night, shame its finished, must say I'v missed a few of them now though, think 3.

Hi, Snowray.If you want, you can catch up on the Rome website at HBO. They have all the plot synopses and it never rains!!

Back to the present - I can't see an end to this weather until the end of the first week of August. I sincerely hope I'm extremly wrong!!!

Regards,

Mike.

Wettest May to August periods.....and this is before August has even started

1879: 490.6

1912: 466.3

1860: 463.8

1817: 447.1

1797: 438.6

1828: 428.3

1830: 421.2

1829: 412.9

1931: 411.9

1768: 408.3

1924: 406.5

1792: 401.5

1852: 399.2

1958: 394.7

1903: 393.2

1789: 388.7

1878: 388.5

1954: 387.1

1816: 385.9

1843: 385.4

1799: 382.2

1777: 381.9

1839: 378.4

1946: 376.5

1927: 374.6

2007 371.3

Were there any gobal phenonena that may have influenced some of those figures, Mr. Data? I'm thinking massive volcanic eruptions or the Great French Flatulence Plague in the late 17th Century !

Kind regards,

Mike

[kold weather]

Yeah the June-July record is in danger of falling from the looks of things, it could be quite close but todays rainfall should be enough to push us into the top 3 for the June-July then it all depends on tomorrow and probably Sunday. I should think if both of those occur then the June-July record will be in the bag. Certainly an impressive 3 months of rainfall we've seen!

Wettest MJJ combo smashing the previous record, its going to be leaps ahead of the previous record!

[Hiya]

It's ridiculous to say that global warming CAUSED these floods, but as we are warming, these things will become more common. More heat = more evaporation = more rain. It's simple really. So, expect more of this in the future, because we are warming up, and because there is more heat around to create these tropical bursts of rain.

Obviously that is very logical. However last year it was "more heat = more evaporation = drought" may it revert back in a few years?

[DR Hosking]

BBC are warning of another inch of rain over southern and central areas for tomorrow, so with further showers too until the end of the month the only way is up that list of June - July, and May to August for that matter.

[tinybill]

some they heavy rain AC to the radar heading for the flood areas

[Weather-history]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 379.7

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 259.1

As I suspected the Hadley rainfall total for July is higher than that of Philip's so I think we need another 8mm at least to those totals.

[Stu_London]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 379.7

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 259.1

As I suspected the Hadley rainfall total for July is higher than that of Philip's so I think we need another 8mm at least to those totals.

Even if it wasn't - I suspect todays event will push us near to the June /July record with more showers to come.

[londonsnow]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

just where the rain is least welcome

[tinybill]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

just where the rain is least welcome

just got the latest radar from meteox its dire for that area

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=2...9&bliksem=0

now weather warning for flood plains up tp 30mm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/...t_warnings.html

Edited July 26, 2007 by tinybill

[kold weather]

Yeah I agree Stu, probably will get enough rain today overall to get upto either 2nd or maybe even just 1st for June-July and we will continue to get further ahead in the MJJ combo, which is destroying the previous record as it is!

Some light showers over the next few days for most and possibly some light.moderate rain over the south on Saturday night may add a little more to the total but once todays rain is done the changes shouldn't be that great.

[Weather-history]

I'm just thinking back to Robert's prediction or the voice that told him of a drought like no other for this summer.

That has got to be one of the worst weather predictions in history as the diametrically opposite has happened!

10th wettest May on record

2nd wettest June on record

Wettest May-June period on record

Wettest May-July period on record

Close to being the wettest June-July period on record

July in the top 50 wettest on record.

[Andy Bown]

Wettest May-June-July periods for England and Wales

2007 379.7

1789 349.1

1879 342.1

1828 329.5

1782 329.4

Wettest June-July periods for England and Wales

1768 270.6

1839 267.8

1879 260.7

2007 259.1

So we're in a period of wet weather that's not been seen for at least 128 years and, from the years shown above, more like 150-250 years!

Crikey .

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/...t_warnings.html

*sigh* This all I need

[The PIT]

Hows it going for the Wettest Summer period??? June,July and August.