Typhoon Man-Yi

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Man-Yi is cutrrently a cat 3 on the saffir-simpson scale and is strengthening quite quickly, after forming on the 7th July. Here's the latest discussion:

...TYPHOON MAN-YI INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON MAN-YI WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.0 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 835 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND 515 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA.

TYPHOON MAN-YI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH. MAN-YI IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED TODAY...THEN TURN

MORE NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING TYPHOON

MAN-YI NEAR OKINAWA FRIDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 115 MPH. TYPHOON MAN-YI IS

EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TODAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...

AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM

THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 19.5 DEGREES NORTH

AND LONGITUDE 131.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH WITH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH.

Still strengthening currently, Man-Yi has a shot at becoming a Super Typhoon and going along a recurve track northeastwards, as predicted, could take it towards Japan. Obviously it will have weakened by then due to cooler waters but it is something maybe Japan will have to watch over the next few days. Of course, it may not go to plan and head somewhere else, time will tell. A powerful storm nonetheless.

Here is a satellite image:

[tinybill]

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

looked at the parth its looks like tokyo is in line for a direct hit at the moment

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Tinybill, thanks for the link.

Now a category 4 Super Typhoon and still on course for Japan. I'd be very surprised if it strengthens further, but it looks like holding it's strength for at least another twelve hours as it bears down on Japan.

[Cookie]

what kinds of winds would that be proudcing?

[NL]

what kinds of winds would that be proudcing?

Between 138mph to 144mph, very destructive winds indeed..

[Cookie]

Between 138mph to 144mph, very destructive winds indeed..

:lol: gee wizz strong winds indeed. what kind of winds would hit japan? i prsume slightly weaker wind speeds?

[tinybill]

• Still no change looks like Tokyo is in line for a hit of some kind

[Cookie]

it will hit japan in 48 hrs

[tinybill]

it will hit japan in 48 hrs

dare say it will be all over fox news or sky news when it hit

[kold weather]

Haven't much time for a decent post but long range radar as well as latest sat.imagery both suggest the western eyewall is starting to have a harder time, i think its starting to weaken as it hits lower heat conent and also it does appear to be slightly sheared now on its northern side, nothing too strong but it'll help to take it down a touch along with lower heat content. Still going to be a pretty strong system when it hits Japan, I'd go for 100-110kts, low end cat-3, maybe bordering high end cat-2.

[Somerset Squall]

Super Typhoon Man-Yi has strengthened further. It now has sustained winds of 135 knots gusting to 165 knots! That's just below cat 5 strength!

[Cookie]

gee wizz when did it become a super typhoon?

[Somerset Squall]

gee wizz when did it become a super typhoon?

Yesterday morning. It is expected to weaken soon though.

[Gibli]

A bit windy as it passed Okinawa. Pressure bottomed out at 939mb. Strongest 10 minute mean wind was 62 gusting 82 knots, but it could have been stronger between observations.

METAR ROAH 130300Z 23050G66KT 1000 R36/0300V0500D +SHRA SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 27/26 Q0958 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

4CB020 A2830 CB OHD-NW MOV NE P/RR

SPECI ROAH 130244Z 22055G70KT 1000 R36/0550V0900N SHRA SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 27/26 Q0955 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

4CB020 A2821 CB OHD-NW MOV NE P/RR=

SPECI ROAH 130239Z 22056G70KT 1000 R36/0300V0800U +SHRA SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 27/26 Q0955 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

4CB020 A2820 CB OHD-NW MOV NE P/RR=

METAR ROAH 130230Z 22058G73KT 0300 R36/0200V0300N +SHRA SCT006

BKN010 BKN020CB 27/26 Q0953 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

5CB020 A2815 CB OHD MOV NE P/RR=

SPECI ROAH 130206Z 22062G82KT 0300 R36/0150V0350D +SHRA SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 27/26 Q0947 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

4CB020 A2796 P/RR RI++ CB OHD MOV NE=

METAR ROAH 130200Z 22061G74KT 0500 R36/0250V0500D +SHRA SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 28/26 Q0945 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

4CB020 A2792 CB E-OHD-SW MOV NE P/RR=

SPECI ROAH 130145Z 22054G73KT 1000 R36/0600N -SHRA BR SCT006

BKN010 SCT020CB 28/26 Q0942 RMK 3ST006 5CU010

3CB020 A2782 CB E-OHD-SW MOV NE P/RR=

SPECI ROAH 130139Z 22048G62KT 1000 R36/0600V1100D -SHRA BR

SCT006 BKN010 SCT020CB 28/26 Q0941 RMK 3ST006

5CU010 3CB020 A2779 CB 10KM E-S-SW MOV NE P/RR=

Gibli

[Cookie]

when is it expected to hit japan?

[Gibli]

Okinawa is a Japanese island. Do you mean the Japanese mainland? If so it's there now, Saturday morning our time. Look on this link under West Pacific:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/

Gibli

[kold weather]

Still going to be a pretty strong system when it hits Japan, I'd go for 100-110kts, low end cat-3, maybe bordering high end cat-2.

Last update suggests 10 minute sustained winds of 85kts which is about 95-105kts if converted down to 1 minute averages (not compeltely sure however!) so pretty pleased with that strength forecast I made 2 days ago, maybe a touch high but close enough considering it was at 135kts at the time of the forecast. Looks like it will probably become extra tropical later tonight/tomorrow but its still a strong storm with decent gusts and giving a lot of rain as well.

[Cookie]

so it got downgraded before it hit japan?

[Somerset Squall]

so it got downgraded before it hit japan?

Yes, it did, as expected due to cooler sea temperatures which makes conditions less favourable for the storm to continue at the strength it was.

[Bobaw]

To show the power of it..... some stupid american marines went out in it...

Apologies for the language.....

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6a5_1184328031

[Cookie]

nice vid