Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[Polar Continental]

afternoon everyone,

As we all know this spring started off extremely warm, not that unusual after so may above average months! it seemed as though we were all getting used to it, even April being around a ridiculous 3c above average.

But since the beginning of May, as we all know there has been quite a change, gone went the unseasonable warmth and very dry conditions we had all got to used to, and was replaced by relatively cooler and much wetter conditions with high pressure to our north and generally low pressure over our latitude. At first the temperature didn’t respond a great deal, as May and June still gave above average temperature readings. This mainly, I believe, and is most likely the reason, heat lag and high SST’s.

We are now in to the 3rd month of unsettled conditions and persistent northern blocking, now for the first time in 12 months the temperatures are on track for dipping below average, this is quite a turn around indeed, ok we are not there yet, but looking at the model projections for the next week or so, I can’t see much upward movement of the temperature towards the July average, if anything we may even see a further fall.

Are we at a turning point, to more average conditions? is this a pattern change? Or just a temporary blip?

Paul

[summer blizzard]

Sensationalism, you should work for the Express..

Since February, no month has been more than 1C above average going by Hadley, if you forget April of course, so i await the string of below average months which may follow this one, though we could equally reset and go warmer.

[DR Hosking]

reckon your onto something there, no expert bit I just get a feeling that the next 2 or 3 months will be around average temperature wise, maybe slightly above average but I reckon each of the next 3 or 4 months will be within 1 degree of average, either above or below, just a hunch though!

summer blizzard, according to Hadley:

January + 3.3

February + 2.0

March + 1.6

April + 3.3

May + 0.7

June + 0.9

Paul is right in saying that since May the temperatures have been moderating.

[summer blizzard]

The 1970-2000 paints a better story..

January: +2.8C

February: +1.6C

March: +0.9C

April: +3.1C

May: +0.6C

June: +1C

[SnowBear]

Too short a time to tell as yet, but it "feels" like a more normal British summer.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

This rain has certainly delayed the harvest around here. It was all in this time last year, but the wheat field behind me is still green, not the golden yellow we expect in July. Silage is good though, very lush, should keep the horses well in the winter.

Spuds are a disaster, mostly rotting in the ground. This'll affect the price of chips, crisps etc soon.

[Essan]

Be nice if it were a trend change - and we finally got a 'normal' winter ...... But I suspect it's just normal climatic variability and the continuing trend over the next 5 years will be for the majority of months to continue to be warmer than the 71-00 average. Rainfall is another matter as I don't see any long term trend as yet - rather medium term oscillations (a few wet winters followed by a few dry winters etc).

[Polar Continental]

Sensationalism, you should work for the Express..

Since February, no month has been more than 1C above average going by Hadley, if you forget April of course, so i await the string of below average months which may follow this one, though we could equally reset and go warmer.

reckon your onto something there, no expert bit I just get a feeling that the next 2 or 3 months will be around average temperature wise, maybe slightly above average but I reckon each of the next 3 or 4 months will be within 1 degree of average, either above or below, just a hunch though!

summer blizzard, according to Hadley:

January + 3.3

February + 2.0

March + 1.6

April + 3.3

May + 0.7

June + 0.9

Paul is right in saying that since May the temperatures have been moderating.

Lol, may be slight sensationalism, I have got a feeling many people are beginning to think along these lines currently.

Most people from joe public I speak to lately are saying this is the coldest, wettest summer in memory, some are quite elderly.

When I tell them temperatures have been above average, they seem to think I am getting my facts wrong.

Obviously the warm nights have been responsible for propping up the average when most people I tucked up in bed, people notice the suppressed maximums during the daytime.

Paul

[Big Bear]

Here are my monthly CET predictions for the rest of the year:

July: +0.2

Aug: +.06

Sep: +1.2

Oct: +0.9

Nov: -0.7

Dec: -1.8

Based on psychoneurotelepathical analysis.

[Rustynailer]

Good afternoon Paul. Yes it is a pattern change, the winter will be cold B)

I hope

Russ

Edited July 18, 2007 by Rustynailer

[The PIT]

Ask me in ten years and we can maybe say at pattern change.

[Polar Continental]

Good afternoon Paul. Yes it is a pattern change, the winter will be cold

I hope

Russ

hi Russ

Certainly if this pattern of northern blocking and a southerly running jet becomes a regular occurrence and continues through the winter months, then we would almost certainly be looking at a below average winter, if not well below. Interesting times ahead I think

Paul

[smith25]

if you want more press sensationalism then wait for the media quotes such as "2007 - The year without a summer"

[Zenarcher]

This year here has been warmer but jan and feb where cold but march april may where warmer than normal but june has also been good here we have had lots of sun and hot temps also the same for july.

[drgl]

Didn't we have 18 odd months of a pattern change before? Atlantic went VERY quiet. I for one thought something was happening then, then all of a sudden "normal" service resumed. Only time will tell.........

[Jack Wales]

Most people from joe public I speak to lately are saying this is the coldest, wettest summer in memory, some are quite elderly.

Paul

Elderly or senile! Joking aside combined CET values for June July so far are not dissimilar to other years in the last decade i.e. 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004. To suggest that there has been some kind of climatic flip as a result of a short period of average temperatures is in my opinion totally unrealistic. It's simply the result (as predicted by many on here) of the climatic effects of the transition from ENSO + to ENSO - conditions.

I don't think anyone could draw any conclusions based on such a short timeframe anyway, unless we recorded a summer as in 1888 (June 13.2, July 13.7, August 14.1), then maybe I would sit up and take notice.

[Bobby]

I do think it's completely wrong to say that just because we've had 1 cool month that there is some kind of change afoot in our climate, if that's what you're saying? It's just not possible to pick out a trend from a month's of data. You need years of data, decades even to pick out trends in climate. The current trend is up up up and there isn't anything to suggest this will change. Certaintly not a month of cool weather. Remember that June was easily above average, as was may. And april was exceptionally hot. This month may still end up around average too...

I remember people saying that winter of 2005/2006 could be a turning point and that winters will be cooling down. Then look at last winter!

[West is Best]

Pretty hypothetical thread to be honest Paul C.

The reason for the cooler June/July is the strong Atlantic: the very conditions which would make for a mild winter. April was extremely mild for the very reasons that would have given a very cold winter month ...! In other words, it's a synoptic tombola this year.

Much of the rest of the NH has been extremely hot, so unless you're suggesting the UK leads the way in turning around the global climate I think the jury is out. If you do seriously think climate change is a myth and this marks the beginning of the end then it would take many years for this to be demonstrable in any meaningful shape of form, protestations from residents of Peterborough and Hastings notwithstanding.

[Jack Wales]

hi Russ

Certainly if this pattern of northern blocking and a southerly running jet becomes a regular occurrence and continues through the winter months, then we would almost certainly be looking at a below average winter, if not well below. Interesting times ahead I think

Paul

Sorry but I must disagree again, 'Summer' and 'Winter' synoptics are incomparable. In winter there is a high probability the Jet would blast through any blocking to our north as it does almost every year, the classic toppler scenario. Plus we'd need the PV and a number of other factors to play ball.

Edited July 18, 2007 by Jack Wales

[Terminal Moraine]

Although this summer, so far, has been magnificent I'd want to see several consecutive months with below average mean temperature or the coldest winter since 1979 or a succession of cold seasons before I'd dip my toe in the waters of a pattern change.

Even if the current northern blocking persists until next March and gives us a cold and snowy winter it could still be nothing more than evidence of greater climatic variability over relatively short time scales (welcome though it would be ) within an overall warming pattern.

On the other hand if this summer is the first of many seasons which buck the recent trend then maybe we're on to something.

Let's not forget that, although it's been wet, this summer is not yet a cool one. For that to occur, August will have to be at least as cool as the first half of July has been; there's a long way to go yet and 2007 is not in the same league as summers such as 1922, 1954, 1956, 1965, 1985 or 1986 to name but a few.

T.M

[Polar Continental]

Pretty hypothetical thread to be honest Paul C.

The reason for the cooler June/July is the strong Atlantic: the very conditions which would make for a mild winter. April was extremely mild for the very reasons that would have given a very cold winter month ...! In other words, it's a synoptic tombola this year.

Much of the rest of the NH has been extremely hot, so unless you're suggesting the UK leads the way in turning around the global climate I think the jury is out. If you do seriously think climate change is a myth and this marks the beginning of the end then it would take many years for this to be demonstrable in any meaningful shape of form, protestations from residents of Peterborough and Hastings notwithstanding.

Hello Richard,

I am certainly not suggesting climate change is a myth, all I am doing is putting forward a few arguably fascinating facts of the last 3 months, small though it is in the big time scale of things. I suppose I could have worded the beginning of the thread more explanatory if I thought it might confuse people in to thinking GW is not happening.

Within the big scale of things, there will always be smaller changes and was suggesting this maybe the start of cooling / moderating change ahead.

Sorry but I must disagree again, 'Summer' and 'Winter' synoptics are incomparable. In winter there is a high probability the Jet would blast through any blocking to our north as it does almost every year, the classic toppler scenario. Plus we'd need the PV and a number of other factors to play ball.

hi Jack,

I tend to disagree, because during winter the apposing synoptics are always similar, northern blocking would be much stronger, so it would need a stronger jet to topple it.

Another thing to note this summer, is the unusual strength of the jet, normally during summer the jet is relatively weaker, so if that were the case wouldn’t northern blocking be much more favourable every summer. Possibly one for GP answer I think.

Paul

[jethro]

Strictly speaking, climate change can and sometimes does happen quickly and dramatically. I'm not saying it has this time or that this month indicates such a change but, 31 years ago a dramatic climate shift did happen in the space of one summer. That time temperatures went up, perhaps changes are afoot in the opposite direction? Stranger things have happened.

http://www.tos.org/oceanography/issues/iss...iller_et_al.pdf

[Big Bear]

Unlike other hostile views of Paul's post, i think this topic is something a lot of us are interested in, seeing whether the current trend of cooler weather continues into Autumn or whether the climate in general carries on above average as expected.

I'm certainly not expecting a mass temperature plunge giving another winter 1962/63 but whats happening now is certainly worth noting and deserves a thread of it's own.

Well done Paul for starting it.

Edited July 18, 2007 by Big Bear

[noggin]

Although this summer, so far, has been magnificent

T.M

Hasn't it just!

Mustn't digress.

Re thread topic.....

...may I wind back to shortly after I joined this esteemed place? I said quite a few times (ad nauseum, possibly) that I felt that GW had plateau'd and that I was expecting "things" to cool down in the not too distant future. Of course I do not expect our temperatures to plummet overnight, or even over the course of, say, a year. I would expect there to be ups and downs along the way, but for the overall trend to be downwards. A natural cycle. I still maintain these conclusions.

PS What a great topic...TY Paul C

Edited July 18, 2007 by noggin

[Scorcher]

Just how much can you conclude from 2 months of 'moderation'? We haven't even had a below average month yet, and it's certainly possible that this month could finish up around average. I think that a couple of cooler months prove very little- look at August last year for example, it was surprisingly cool. However, thoughts of a cooling trend were ended after the ridiculously warm September. There needs to be a long period of below average months before we can come to conclusions about this.

Hasn't it just!

Mustn't digress.

Re thread topic.....

...may I wind back to shortly after I joined this esteemed place? I said quite a few times (ad nauseum, possibly) that I felt that GW had plateau'd and that I was expecting "things" to cool down in the not too distant future. Of course I do not expect our temperatures to plummet overnight, or even over the course of, say, a year. I would expect there to be ups and downs along the way, but for the overall trend to be downwards. A natural cycle. I still maintain these conclusions.

PS What a great topic...TY Paul C

But this idea is flawed when we're still recording all time record months isn't it?

Especially when you consider April smashed the previous record by 1.0C. That wasn't that long ago at all.