Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[VillagePlank]

Can I be an idiot too? I was almost spot on with my July CET "prediction". My below average August prediction is also looking quite good.

It's natural cycles. We are overdue for some coolness. IMVH (and non-scientific)O.

I'm afraid that the NWIC (Net Weather Idiot Club) is a very exclusive place to be. You must have demonstrated that you have made intellectual blunders time and time again.

You, unfortunately, are simply not stupid enough

:o

[Bobby]

Whatever the CO2 was in the past is really irrelevant to today's warming and today's CO2 levels. Yes it was much warmer in the past, yes CO2 was also much higher at times, but these causes were clearly natural. The situation now though is different, we are seeing the most rapid increase in CO2 ever known as far as reasonably reliable records go. The temperature increase is also exceptionally rapid. And for it all to start happening around the time of the industrial revolution where we started pumping trillions of tons worth of CO2 stored up in the Earth over 100's of millions of years doesn't sound like mere coincidence to me.

[SteveB]

Are humans not natural, everything we do is a natural human instinct. Yes we maybe harming our environment, and yes we maybe be able to correct it. We are passengers on this planet like everthing else, and we can easily be kicked off it. The human population will decline naturally in the future, that is for sure.

[Nick F]

Whatever the CO2 was in the past is really irrelevant to today's warming and today's CO2 levels. Yes it was much warmer in the past, yes CO2 was also much higher at times, but these causes were clearly natural. The situation now though is different, we are seeing the most rapid increase in CO2 ever known as far as reasonably reliable records go. The temperature increase is also exceptionally rapid. And for it all to start happening around the time of the industrial revolution where we started pumping trillions of tons worth of CO2 stored up in the Earth over 100's of millions of years doesn't sound like mere coincidence to me.

That seems a very sensible logical explanation to why we shouldn't compare the warmer periods in the past, which were naturally induced, compared to the man-made warming now. For a start the warmer epocs or periods in the past developed over thousands or millions of years. Today's warming is vary rapid in comparison, which will have detrimental effects wrt quickly rising sea levels and changing climate patterns as a consequence, certainly unprecedented in the timescale of the earth compared to the speed of past changes in sea-level/climate patterns from what we know looking at records.

Oh dear, this is veering off into a discussion on GW. Certainly agree that we need a bigger period of time to say that temps may have plateaued wrt the CET, rather than jump to quickly to a conclusion that this maybe happening based on perhaps a cool below average summer this year.

[TEITS]

Whatever the CO2 was in the past is really irrelevant to today's warming and today's CO2 levels. Yes it was much warmer in the past, yes CO2 was also much higher at times, but these causes were clearly natural. The situation now though is different, we are seeing the most rapid increase in CO2 ever known as far as reasonably reliable records go. The temperature increase is also exceptionally rapid. And for it all to start happening around the time of the industrial revolution where we started pumping trillions of tons worth of CO2 stored up in the Earth over 100's of millions of years doesn't sound like mere coincidence to me.

Still doesn't answer the question.

According to the scientists the increased CO2 is trapping the heat causing a rise in temps that we are currently seeing. So if this increased CO2 is responsible how on earth can this be true if during an ice age CO2 levels were 12times higher!!. You could argue that the reason for this was natural but there isn't anything to suggest this was the case during that period.

This is one of many reasons why im convinced our current warming is due to many other factors which aren't fully understood at the moment. As an example we still do not know exactly how the effects of the sun affect our climate at the moment and this is just one variable out of many. Until some scientist fully understands how the climate works I shall remain sceptical of the cause of this warming and shall not be one of those who suffer from the sheep syndrome and get involved in this mass GW hysteria!.

[Bobby]

Still doesn't answer the question.

According to the scientists the increased CO2 is trapping the heat causing a rise in temps that we are currently seeing. So if this increased CO2 is responsible how on earth can this be true if during an ice age CO2 levels were 12times higher!!. You could argue that the reason for this was natural but there isn't anything to suggest this was the case during that period.

This is one of many reasons why im convinced our current warming is due to many other factors which aren't fully understood at the moment. As an example we still do not know exactly how the effects of the sun affect our climate at the moment and this is just one variable out of many. Until some scientist fully understands how the climate works I shall remain sceptical of the cause of this warming and shall not be one of those who suffer from the sheep syndrome and get involved in this mass GW hysteria!.

Not even going to reply when you imply I'm a sheep, have a syndrome and am hysterical. Have better things to do than to be insulted.

[TEITS]

Not even going to reply when you imply I'm a sheep, have a syndrome and am hysterical. Have better things to do than to be insulted.

Sorry but when I say sheep I wasn't referring to you.

What I mean't by this is the media blaming every single weather event on GW and certainly not yourself.

[Bobby]

Sorry but when I say sheep I wasn't referring to you.

What I mean't by this is the media blaming every single weather event on GW and certainly not yourself.

Well, the media is the media, they are much apart from the actual science. They overhype anything in order to sell more papers, it is a business after all.

According to the scientists the increased CO2 is trapping the heat causing a rise in temps that we are currently seeing. So if this increased CO2 is responsible how on earth can this be true if during an ice age CO2 levels were 12times higher!!. You could argue that the reason for this was natural but there isn't anything to suggest this was the case during that period.

CO2 isn't the only factor in climate though. CO2 could be low and it could be very warm, or it could be high and it could be very cold. One example where we could have exceptionally high CO2 levels but with cool temperatures could be from a large meteorite impact, putting lots of particles into atmosphere,, blocking out the sun and causing cooling. Or some some big volcanic eruptions would amount to the same thing. We do know that CO2 does trap heat and cause warming however, and since CO2 levels are rising rapidly and temperature is rising rapidly along with them, it seems logically to me the 2 are connected. And since we are surely the source of increased CO2, with trillions of tons of it emitted, surely we are the ones ultimately behind it all.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Dave...without trying to sound demeaning, and although i'm sure you are already aware, but perhaps have a look at the basics of Greenhouse gases. CO2 is just one of many. It is not, i'm sure, solely responsible for global warming, but a contributing factor.

The question I would ask would be, were other greenhouse gases present xmillion years ago?

Do C02/Greenhouse gas emissions have an immediate effect on our climate?

I would suggest the answer to both is no. I have some links which would show you the effect of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but alas, they would be an insult to your intelligence.

Personally, I think we have to go back to basics to understand Global Warming and Climate Change (two seperate, but linked, theories). There is too much confusion over fancy papers, meanings and statistics, where the science behind the theory is actually quite simple (remember the hole in the o-zone layer which I havent seen mentioned for, well, has it been mentioned!)

[DR Hosking]

Are we at a turning point, to more average conditions? is this a pattern change? Or just a temporary blip?

Paul

In reply to original post NO, NO, YES.

Hope thats cleared it up! :o

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here is some interesting facts which I never knew about.

The general consensus believe that increased CO2 emissions are responsible for our current warming and the levels at the moment are around 380PPM (parts per million).

Now did you know that during the late Ordovician period (around 500million years ago) an ice age started around this period and yet the CO2 levels were around 4400ppm which is 12 times higher than today!!.

I have two alternative explainations and these are the solar cycles and Milankovitch cycles.

The two of these are the greatest contributors to climate change!.

Dave

I did know about these and natural against man made will be thrown at you. CO2 is CO2 is CO2. It warms or it doesn't and clearly there are other drivers that easily overcome CO2's signal, if there is indeed one.

UK, too early to tell re change but a refreshing summer to say the least IMO.

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

Not according to this.

The Carboniferous Period and the Ordovician Period were the only geological periods during the Paleozoic Era when global temperatures were as low as they are today. To the consternation of global warming proponents, the Late Ordovician Period was also an Ice Age while at the same time CO2 concentrations then were nearly 12 times higher than today-- 4400 ppm. According to greenhouse theory, Earth should have been exceedingly hot. Instead, global temperatures were no warmer than today. Clearly, other factors besides atmospheric carbon influence earth temperatures and global warming.

http://mysite.verizon.net/mhieb/WVFossils/...us_climate.html

We're getting off topic here, however, whilst that might be true it cannot be inferred directly from that point that current levels of CO2 are therefore trivial. There may well have been other dampening effects present at that time, and the diffferent continental dispersion would certainly have impacted climate.

...as I also suggested further back, lets just confine ourselves to the next two years and go from there. Baby steps, and not nostradamus predictions way into the future

Tamara

When we were kids we used to toss for things, and I well recall that when you were two down in the best of three the call would often be "best of five then"..."best of seven".