Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?

[Polar Continental]

Obviously the warm nights have been responsible for propping up the average when most people I tucked up in bed, people notice the suppressed maximums during the daytime.

Paul

Quote Paul Cox

Im afraid your wrong about the night time minimum Paul, the reverse is actually true, the last 2 months and this month so far have seen milder than average nights (at least in the CET zone) and cooler day time maximums than average.

Hi DR H,

You mean John Cox i presume, referring to nighttime minimums, yes you are correct in saying they have been above average, see my post quoted above.

To be fair to John, he lives in Dublin, in Ireland; I am not familiar with his area, so he may will be correct for his particular region.

Paul

[DR Hosking]

yeah, did say in CET Zone. Anyway, regardless as to weather its a turning point or not, Id much rather have summers like this year than last years! I would be happy with a few days where we reach 25 degrees but nothing near 30 degrees. Basically average would be fine by me!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

yeah, did say in CET Zone. Anyway, regardless as to weather its a turning point or not, Id much rather have summers like this year than last years! I would be happy with a few days where we reach 25 degrees but nothing near 30 degrees. Basically average would be fine by me!

I'm right with you DRH. Spent 5 yrs living in Saudi, had enough heat to last me a lifetime. This is perfect !! Roll on the autumn.......

[Upgrade]

I don't think this Summer is a turning point. I'm sure that we'll be back to the usual scorching heatwaves that we've become used to next year. I'm just glad that we're having some cooler weather for a change and making the most of it.

i agree with this. even with global warming we have to expect normal temp summers a fair degree of the time as things warm up.

people's expectations after the last few years of hot summer/ heatwaves are totally unrealistic, i've never heard so many moaning minnies. they should get on with enjoying the summer, its lovely.

[Guest Viking141]

I think we may well have reached a turning point, certainly from a far northerly perspective it would seem to be the case anyway. Both daytime and night time temps have been very close to average in April, May and June and this has been the case since 2003-2004 where it seems the peak in temp rises was reached up here (the only real exception being an anomously warm April this year which I think was the same everywhere). The weather continues to be cool up here with winds from the northerly quarter predominating and I fully expect July to be at best average if not below average.

[Bottesford]

i agree with this. even with global warming we have to expect normal temp summers a fair degree of the time as things warm up.

people's expectations after the last few years of hot summer/ heatwaves are totally unrealistic, i've never heard so many moaning minnies. they should get on with enjoying the summer, its lovely.

Certainly regular long heatwaves are unrelistic but the odd one or two certainly isn't! The 'moaning minnies' are more complaining about the excessive rainfall rather than the temperatures. I've found only a few days too cold but that's mostly under the monsoon style rains. This summers complaints come from a lack of sunshine and too much rain thus making bbqs, sitting outside, walking, lack of coats, having doors/windows open and all the other pleasures that I really miss during the dark/cold months rather difficult. If we'd had 80-100% of rain and 100-1250% sunshine it'd not be seen as a poor summer, even if temps still haven't made 25c here. The past two days have been wonderful - I don't need 30c, just need dry & sunny!

And, on topic, I don't think this summer is any kind of 'turning point'. It's just a poor summer.

[HighPressure]

I don't think its a turning point just a continuation of a pattern that seems to be emerging: several drier years followed by a very wet period every 4 or 5 years. I have not looked up the figures but I reckon the rainfall totals over say the last 15yrs have been about average just in clumps. I would of thought that less rain = less cloud cover = more heat on dry years? I suspect this year will be followed by another 3 or 4 dry years!

I think given our postion on the edge of europe and the Atlantic jets normal position over the top of us it does not take much to cause step changes in our weather both on the plus and negative just a small movement in the Jet.

Edited July 19, 2007 by HighPressure

[Gray-Wolf]

No matter where the airmass originates if you have air dragged down from 'X' thousand feet (along with the monsoonal rains) then it's going to feel chill. If you lick your finger and hold it into the wind you'll also feel what evaporation 'feels' like. Both of these thinks can easily explain why we have had a dire 6 weeks whilst 200 miles inland of the European coast they've been cracking their flagstones and basking.

In the same way the stubborn winter low fed us warm air and the eastern seaboard of Canada/USA cold leading to abnormal ice levels down that area I'd be sad to see folk holding our unfortunate 'positioning' as some kind of sign of 'a change back to cooler'. Paff and nonsense I'd say......weather records are being broken both here and in the sunnier bits of western Europe as the climate becomes increasingly extreme (in line with GW predictions).

Though a naff summer here so far it does nothing to change my observations of our changing planet and the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Lets see how much moaning the south can do tomorrow after the next batch of 'extreme weather' (compared to Selby,Sheffield,Rotherham et al!!!!!! LOL)

[summer blizzard]

In answer to the turning point, i believe that we will see an overall warming continuing, however i do not expect a continuation of the 2006 style consistent heat that we saw.

In regards to the heat we saw late last year, i do think that one well above average month can in itself lead to more well above average months, January-March 2007 is a good example, had January been say 1.5C cooler tn it was, i suspect February would have been a good 0.5C cooler and also March in turn.

The interesting month for me was May 2007, at only 0.6C above average, i do believe that we were effectively cheated out of a below average month by the latent heat left from April, June i believe was above average in its own right.

While i is good that we are seeing a below average month, i am afraid that this is being purely driven by th QBO causing a negative AO (high lattiude blocking), and with the QBO peaking in September typically, by the time we reach winter, i am not sold on us seeing a below average winter with the possibility of La Nina reaching moderate or the PDO becoming positive.

In summary, i see a good chance of August, Sptember and October being below average, but afterwards i have no idea.

Edited July 19, 2007 by summer blizzard

[Stratos Ferric]

Re your first para....it's not concluded from "2 months of moderation". As I said, I thought a good 18 months ago that a "hot" plateau had been reached and that was based on my observations over the previous couple of years. So in total, it's based on about 4 years of observation. I'm glad that I was brave enough to spout my theory 18 months ago....at least it's on record!

Re your second para......are we still recording all time record months? Or is it generally just a case of above average months? There is a big difference between the two.

If I had all day and an infinite supply of patience I would trawl through all the info I could find to work out just how many hot temperature records have actually been broken over the past 4 years. I don't think it would be that many.

Also and more generally, what are we all talking about........is it our weather (Britain and Ireland) or is it worldwide weather? Personally I am talking about our weather!

...

Noggin,

Let's get one thing straight. In the eighteen months since you "went on record" to say that temperatures have peaked, the 12 month rolling average CET will have risen by the thick end of a degree to comfortably its highest value ever and we have endured, here in the UK, an unprecedented run of record breaking months. Temperatures may now have peaked, but there is absolutely no evidence that this is anything other than "for now"; and we remain well above the level we were at 18 months ago by the way.

If you did have an infinite supply of patience you'd be struggling to find any evidence of significant cooling anywhere. Even as I type much of SE Europe continues to have record warmth, and S C America has been enduring record warmth too.

There are a few on here who selectively alight on bits of data to make a case that simply cannot be made, and a few more who cannot be bothered to go checking facts so instead spout untenable generalisations with confident assertiveness.

Never let facts get in the way of a strongly preferred opinion!

I don't think its a turning point just a continuation of a pattern that seems to be emerging: several drier years followed by a very wet period every 4 or 5 years. I have not looked up the figures but I reckon the rainfall totals over say the last 15yrs have been about average just in clumps. I would of thought that less rain = less cloud cover = more heat on dry years? I suspect this year will be followed by another 3 or 4 dry years!

...

There may well be something in that.

[david16]

Whatever happens this winter, hopefully we won't see the dreaded old conveyer belt of low pressure system after low pressure system after low pressure system sweeping in from the southwest seemingly forever and a day.

Seeing the greenland high and scandinavian high saying a nice friendly hello to each other continually to the North of us and both persisting for long spells would make a nice pleasant change from the dismal norm.

Can't bear the thought of us suffering from yet another dismal winter of the constant +10C to +13C daytime max variety again being the standard norm this winter. It can't surely get even milder this upcoming winter.

Edited July 20, 2007 by david16

[Stratos Ferric]

...I'm sure many will not care less about the CET for May/June. The cooler perception of 99% of folk is all the more exacerbated by the ridiculous warmth we have endured for the preceeding 12 months. The over-riding factor, and of infinitely more interest than the CET, that will stagger people most is the exceptional rainfall.

...

Tamara

Not sure rainfall is "exceptional" yet, though it's certainly memorable. As HP has suggested, and something that averaged data for rainfall misses more markedly than do spatial temperature averages, is the intensity of the rainfall. In terms of the number of wet days neither June nor the current month are likely to end up anywhere near being off the scale of normality, though amounts of rain are disproportionate for the rain frequency. Repeated dramatic news headlines add to the perception, probably disproportionately, but it's still spatially fairly limited compared with the sort of flooding we have occasionally seen in recent winters. And therein lies the rub when averaging rainfall when the month is largely convective; the moreso when conditions, as for the last month or two, are unusually conducive.

Romantic "coldies" looking for something positive in the puddles might be well advised, as I think Tamara is suggesting, to see more evidence of continued GW-associated change in the prodigious rainfall than to divine cold winters to come from a still-short spell of slightly below average temperatures.

Edited July 20, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[SMU]

Not sure rainfall is "exceptional" yet, though it's certainly memorable. As HP has suggested, and something that averaged data for rainfall misses more markedly than do spatial temperature averages, is the intensity of the rainfall. In terms of the number of wet days neither June nor the current month are likely to end up anywhere near being off the scale of normality, though amounts of rain are disproportionate for the rain frequency. Repeated dramatic news headlines add to the perception, probably disproportionately, but it's still spatially fairly limited compared with the sort of flooding we have occasionally seen in recent winters. And therein lies the rub when averaging rainfall when the month is largely convective; the moreso when conditions, as for the last month or two, are unusually conducive.

Romantic "coldies" looking for something positive in the puddles might be well advised, as I think Tamara is suggesting, to see more evidence of continued GW-associated change in the prodigious rainfall than to divine cold winters to come from a still-short spell of slightly below average temperatures.

we are now in the top 3 of MAY JUNE JULY wettest Periods since records began & after this weekend look to be in pole postition - Id say that is exceptional V the norm...

As for the alleged Pattern change- Non Starter for me - You cannot assert sometgin after a few 'challenging' weeks-

as much as Id love it to be a trip towards the polar era, TM & I will have to sit & suck on our Murray mints waiting for the next bout of 63 type weather to arrive on our doorstep...

S

Edited July 20, 2007 by Steve Murr

[david16]

Seems a bit silly that the temperaturee drop by about 20F from 73F to 51F switching from a dry summer to mild winter.

Yet switching from this summer to this winter the Farenheiht temperatures won't even drop by half and winds predominately coming from the southwest instead of the current easterly.

It would be nice for a change from the norm to see this winter mainly in the low to mid 30's F dropping sometimes to the 20's F during the day and only the odd brief spell in the high 40's F to low to mid 50's F.

Yes of course we got mild weather in the not too distant past when winters were a lot better. But not for almost the enitre virtually every winter as it is nowadays with seemingly no end to the rain, rain and more rain that's accompanied by ridiculously high warm west or southwest winds and temps the likes of 51F, 53F, 55F during the day and falling no lower than 42F at night.

Edited July 20, 2007 by david16

[noggin]

Stratos Ferric, I have tried to quote your post, but am having technical difficulties. I will endeavour to reply though!

I didn't say that temperatures have peaked, I said they'd plateau'd. There is a difference.

"An unprecedented run of record breaking months" you say? There have been a lot of above average months, but that is not the same as unprecedented record breaking months. Again, there is a difference. I wish you would read what I have written. How many record breaking months have there been in the past 3 or 4 years?

Struggling to find evidence of significant cooling? There has been record breakingcold and snow in the USA. There has been snow in South Africa for the past two years, which is the first they've had in decades. There are many other examples, but in order to prevent boredom I won't list them all.

Noggin,

There are a few on here who selectively alight on bits of data to make a case that simply cannot be made, and a few more who cannot be bothered to go checking facts so instead spout untenable generalisations with confident assertiveness.

Never let facts get in the way of a strongly preferred opinion!

This bit of your post I am immediately catapaulting back at you! Pots, kettles etc.

Nice talking to you again. <_<

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not sure rainfall is "exceptional" yet, though it's certainly memorable. As HP has suggested, and something that averaged data for rainfall misses more markedly than do spatial temperature averages, is the intensity of the rainfall. In terms of the number of wet days neither June nor the current month are likely to end up anywhere near being off the scale of normality, though amounts of rain are disproportionate for the rain frequency. Repeated dramatic news headlines add to the perception, probably disproportionately, but it's still spatially fairly limited compared with the sort of flooding we have occasionally seen in recent winters. And therein lies the rub when averaging rainfall when the month is largely convective; the moreso when conditions, as for the last month or two, are unusually conducive.

Romantic "coldies" looking for something positive in the puddles might be well advised, as I think Tamara is suggesting, to see more evidence of continued GW-associated change in the prodigious rainfall than to divine cold winters to come from a still-short spell of slightly below average temperatures.

Sorry SF but you are simply quite wrong. This rainfall is clearly 'exceptional' and reaching unprecedented...the record is under severe threat no doubt.

Its a bit like saying last year was just memorable...I mean it didn't break all records did it?

As for being selective its precisely what you are doing with warmth. Look south of the equator and there massive amounts of cold records being tumbled easily balancing out any warmth. Continued GW? We still haven't exceeded 1998....and we won't this year either.

BFTP

[Duane S.]

Not sure rainfall is "exceptional" yet, though it's certainly memorable. As HP has suggested, and something that averaged data for rainfall misses more markedly than do spatial temperature averages, is the intensity of the rainfall. In terms of the number of wet days neither June nor the current month are likely to end up anywhere near being off the scale of normality, though amounts of rain are disproportionate for the rain frequency. Repeated dramatic news headlines add to the perception, probably disproportionately, but it's still spatially fairly limited compared with the sort of flooding we have occasionally seen in recent winters. And therein lies the rub when averaging rainfall when the month is largely convective; the moreso when conditions, as for the last month or two, are unusually conducive.

Romantic "coldies" looking for something positive in the puddles might be well advised, as I think Tamara is suggesting, to see more evidence of continued GW-associated change in the prodigious rainfall than to divine cold winters to come from a still-short spell of slightly below average temperatures.

This is one of the most baffling posts I have ever read.

[summer blizzard]

Sorry SF but you are simply quite wrong. This rainfall is clearly 'exceptional' and reaching unprecedented...the record is under severe threat no doubt.

Its a bit like saying last year was just memorable...I mean it didn't break all records did it?

As for being selective its precisely what you are doing with warmth. Look south of the equator and there massive amounts of cold records being tumbled easily balancing out any warmth. Continued GW? We still haven't exceeded 1998....and we won't this year either.

BFTP

Strattos, i must agree, while natonally we hav'nt seen any wettest months, we have seen the wettest May-June and May-June-July periods on record.

Blast, like it or not but the word is warming, 1998 was super-imposed due to a big El Nino, 2005, the second warmest was a ENSO neutral year.

[ribster]

Strattos, i must agree, while natonally we hav'nt seen any wettest months, we have seen the wettest May-June and May-June-July periods on record.

Blast, like it or not but the word is warming, 1998 was super-imposed due to a big El Nino, 2005, the second warmest was a ENSO neutral year.

Yes, no doubting that currently, but what remains in question is whether that trend will continue and what exactly the causes are (I accept that opinions differ on this). I fully believe that we will cool again, hopefully in my lifetime, even if not, it will come. What never ceases to amaze me is how important human beings seem to think they are and that they can control nature - still don't seem to have learnt that lesson.

[Duane S.]

Yes, no doubting that currently, but what remains in question is whether that trend will continue and what exactly the causes are (I accept that opinions differ on this). I fully believe that we will cool again, hopefully in my lifetime, even if not, it will come. What never ceases to amaze me is how important human beings seem to think they are and that they can control nature - still don't seem to have learnt that lesson.

Spot on Ribster. It's about time some smelt the coffee and wised up to the fact that us humans and our activities have such a puny longterm effect on the weather that it is hardly worth mentioning. Mother nature must be p*ssing herself laughing at us at the moment.

[John Cox]

What never ceases to amaze me is how important human beings seem to think they are and that they can control nature - still don't seem to have learnt that lesson.

Hi Ribster,

Just what I have been saying on this forum for 2 years but have not had too much support.

Glad someone else thinks the same. <_<

Quote SF

"Not sure rainfall is exceptional, though it's certainly memorable."

I have not had to top up my bird bath with water this year and that is "execptional"

Edited July 20, 2007 by John Cox

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blast, like it or not but the word is warming, 1998 was super-imposed due to a big El Nino, 2005, the second warmest was a ENSO neutral year.

SB

Not wanting to labour any point........like it or not we are not surpassing 1998.....period. Big El Ninos are out of favour now for 35 years :huh:

BFTP

[david16]

Romantic "coldies" looking for something positive in the puddles might be well advised, as I think Tamara is suggesting, to see more evidence of continued GW-associated change in the prodigious rainfall than to divine cold winters to come from a still-short spell of slightly below average temperatures.

It's not about being a romatic coldie.

Seeing a seemingly everlasting conveyer belt of low pressure systems sweeping in from the atlantic lasting virtually the entire winter with only 2 or 3 brief 1 or 2 day northerlies is a very poor weather pattern indeed. Southwest wind followed by west wind followed by south wind followed by southwest wind, all exceptionally moist maritime tropical airstreams lasting for days and weeks on end is nasty stuff all very poor for your health.

[summer blizzard]

True, however the fact remains that warming in ENSO neutral years is continuing.

[osmposm]

How many record breaking months have there been in the past 3 or 4 years?

Um, in the CET zone, no less than three, I think - all of them, astonishingly, in the last 12 months: July 06 (nearly a whole degree over previous hottest), Sept 06, and April 07 (over half a degree higher). Plus, I believe, for 2006, the warmest autumn ever, and of course the warmest year ever (by quite a margin, too). When did this plateau start exactly?

"Evidence of significant cooling"? Yes, there were, I believe, plenty of single-day, single-site cold records broken in the US last winter/spring, but I don't think there were any monthly ones broken: it was a season of alternating cold and very unusual warmth - also sometimes "record-breaking" in that limited sense. Overall, averaged out, it was about normal. As to the record-breaking snow you refer to, it was in fact caused by the very high water temps in Lake Ontario after the extraordinary warmth of Dec & Jan - coupled, of course, with a (not unusual) arctic blast over it.

Snow is always a bad indicator of cold for this reason - more snow tends to fall when it is not so cold (but cold enough). The snow in South Africa, for example, was not to do with exceptionally low temps. This year's Johannesburg snowfall was, indeed, the first proper covering for 26 years. Last year's was just a few light flurries, something that happens in Gauteng not infrequently - on average every 6 or 7 years, perhaps. However, Joburg's average minimum temp for June (since 1960) is 4.0. This year it was above average at 4.7. In 1968, the record low, it was just 0.7. You need to look behind the headlines, Noggin.

Edited July 20, 2007 by osmposm