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Is the summer of 2007 a turning point?


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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
SF, your posts are starting show increasing amounts of desperation with every one made.

A shame, as before you started throwing your toys out of the pram I had a lot of respect for what you had to say and your undoubted knowledge.

Ditto that, used to read his/her posts with interest as clearly has a wealth of meterological knowledge, much more than someone like myself. However, posters should observe good netiquette. Speaking to someone in a headmaster/pupil type patronising tone, especially when you don't even know them, is not acceptable. You wouldn't do it face to face, so I don't see why it should be tolerated here.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

From my perspective in London, August 2004 contained more short term exceptional rain events (10mm+ in less than 15 minutes type events) although the overall totals for the EW series are obviously in themselves exceptional for the period since May (if record breaking or close to record breaking cannot be described as exceptional then I don't know what can).

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I think its important to remember that parts of eastern Europe are having an extremely hot summer, and that there have also been notable heatwaves in Greece and Russia this summer. Just because we have missed out doesn't mean that the average temperature across Europe has been below normal - if anything it has been well above.

What we have seen this year is a rather blocked pattern that is not favouring north western Europe. We couldn't expect every summer to be like this one, any more than we could expect every summer to be like last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Ditto that, used to read his/her posts with interest as clearly has a wealth of meterological knowledge, much more than someone like myself. However, posters should observe good netiquette. Speaking to someone in a headmaster/pupil type patronising tone, especially when you don't even know them, is not acceptable. You wouldn't do it face to face, so I don't see why it should be tolerated here.

SF's posting style might be described as an acquired taste to some, however as someone that regularly engages in banter with him, I am fairly sure that now ill feeling is meant in any of his posts.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
I for one don't see anything in this summer that could be classified as a turning point. Yes it has been much wetter than normal. Yes it has been cooler than recent summers, but even so June was above average still. We still have August to come, but I would so far classify Summer 2007 as "a normal British summer", although we have had a couple of exceptional rain events.

What has changed in my opinion is how so many people nowadays seem to think that Britain has hot, dry summers, every summer!

i think that most of us accept that nearly every summer can expect a hot dry spell or two, or three or four! the point is that after several record breaking warm months, and a beautiful april, this summer should have at least been 'normal' with a couple of hot spells.

unfortunately its been a wash out, ive still not seen one 25c which i maintain is remarkable. the worst summer since 1985 when i didnt see a 25c until OCTOBER the first!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Blast. First up, read CARFEULLY what I write please (see my response to Steve, above). June didn't break the national record, July doesn't look like it will either. As Steve suggests, the period rainfall clearly is heading towards being exceptional. Perhaps it depends on where we draw the line for "exceptional" being "much greater than usual".

Re GW, I don't believe I mentioned GW. The argument in this thread has largely been reference the UK climate; it is the cold fans who keep introducing spurious references to one off examples of cold here and there as if they are proof of some impending ice age. Fans are, by their definition, selectively blind to facts.

SF

You did mention GW in your post, but that's by the by. We are splitting hairs here but exceptional it is and approaching unprecedented with another potential wet week approaching.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
i think that most of us accept that nearly every summer can expect a hot dry spell or two, or three or four! the point is that after several record breaking warm months, and a beautiful april, this summer should have at least been 'normal' with a couple of hot spells.

unfortunately its been a wash out, ive still not seen one 25c which i maintain is remarkable. the worst summer since 1985 when i didnt see a 25c until OCTOBER the first!!!!!!!

You are absolutely right Mushy.

I personally get fed up reading "June was above average" and "We cannot expect hot & sunny summers every year".

The reason I get fed up with these comments is I remember some of the poor summers of the 80's but even those had some warm settled spells. What makes this summer different and is the point that many are missing is the lack of any hot spells. Let's face it you could count the amount of days with temps of +25C on just one hand during June, July and like you Mushy I haven't even seen 25C yet!. What is also incredible in this dreadful summer isn't the amount of rainfall but the frequency of days with rain falling and the lack of any decent settled spells.

What we need is Mr Data to post some stats of how many days 25C has been reached in previous summers going back say 1970 and I bet the stats will show how remarkably poor this summer has been so far.

Check these figures for June and you will see why the above average CET means absolutely nothing and these also show just how poor a month June actually was!.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/uksun.txt

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...tics/ukrain.txt

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Castle Howard, North Yorkshire
You are absolutely right Mushy.

I personally get fed up reading "June was above average" and "We cannot expect hot & sunny summers every year".

Hi Dave

Yes I agree mate. It is the continuous unsettled nature of the weather that has depressed me more than anything.

I think when your work is dependent on the weather Such as Rob's is it is more noticable.

I know form keeping horses we have had a constant battle with the paddocks always been muddy

or the school area always flooded or too wet, and they never get the chance to dry out before the next

batch of rain comes along.

My wife had lots of plans for this summer with the horses all of which have had to be put on hold.

I would Imagine there are a lot of people who's businesses are dependent on the weather who have

been affected too, such as farming and tourism etc.

I remember telling you Dave, that I had bought a trailer tent so that we could have a few

days away, but we still haven't had the opportunity to use it yet, because of the amount of rain we have had

It has been stuck in the same place since we bought it. I can see the school summer holidays being

spoilt for the children too if this miserable pattern continues.

I couldn't care less if the statistics show that it has been an above average summer regards temps.

Just looking out of the window tells me how bad this summer has been up to now.

Brian :rolleyes:

Edited by grab my graupels
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
i think that most of us accept that nearly every summer can expect a hot dry spell or two, or three or four! the point is that after several record breaking warm months, and a beautiful april, this summer should have at least been 'normal' with a couple of hot spells.

unfortunately its been a wash out, ive still not seen one 25c which i maintain is remarkable. the worst summer since 1985 when i didnt see a 25c until OCTOBER the first!!!!!!!

For maximum temperatures it has indeed been a very disappointing summer. Around here the highest we've seen so far this summer has been 23c - on just one single day. Usually we can expect a 25c or above in June, July, August, September and occasionally in May. I wasnt around to see the summers of the 80s, but this is one of the most poor summers I can remember.

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Noggin, Noggin, Noggin;

Do you know what, Stratos Ferric? Until the time comes that you stop putting words into my mouth, I really don't think I can be bothered to respond to you....

........and if you think that means that I am dodging the issues, then it would say more about you than it does about me.

Enjoy your day.

Edited by noggin
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

This is not the place to discuss the posting style of Stratos Ferric, if any such discussion occurs in the seasonal section, will be making a complaint to the moderators, settle your grievance with him elsewhere please, though i myself have no problem with him.

Seeding hurricanes was abandoned because scientists could not offer proof that they were having any effect at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire
  • Location: Near Matlock, Derbyshire

Yes, I agree that this summer has been extraordinary with the amount of rainfall, number of rain days, lack of 25C+ temperatures. I still see it as relatively normal though in the sense that I believe mother nature is simply balancing things out over time.

Of course, only in x number of years time will we know if summer 2007 was a turning point, and if it was, in what sense it is a turning point. I'm sure that a hot summer next year would soon result in this summer being forgotten. And in any case, August 2007 may change our fortunes! (I just saw a pig fly across the room)

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Posted
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
  • Location: Steeton, W Yorks, 270m ASL
SF, your posts are starting show increasing amounts of desperation with every one made.

A shame, as before you started throwing your toys out of the pram I had a lot of respect for what you had to say and your undoubted knowledge.

I don't think I've thrown any toys out of any pram. To recap: Noggin made a point, as s/he is entitled to do. I (and some others) challenged the point being made by presenting an argument to the contrary, which was well grounded in fact. Noggin then came back challenging the challenge and made what was, to be frank, at the very least a careless assertion (the 'what records have been broken in the past 3-4 years' observation). On that basis I have rechallenged stridently.

There are far too many on these threads who seem to think, as in life, they can say and do what they want without challenge. Fair enough when the point being made is grounded in fact, but until such time as somebody comes back and demonstrates why or how Noggin's point that temperatures had plateaued as s/he had pointed out four years ago (they absolutely had not at that time. Whether or not they have now IS a matter of conjecture - but that latter is not thepoint I'm arguing) then I stand by my challenge, strident because Noggin continued to argue an original point that had been gently rebutted.

I certainly don't mean Noggin any ill-will, but I'd always defend the facts and the argument first.

Yes, I agree that this summer has been extraordinary with the amount of rainfall, number of rain days, lack of 25C+ temperatures. I still see it as relatively normal though in the sense that I believe mother nature is simply balancing things out over time.

Of course, only in x number of years time will we know if summer 2007 was a turning point, and if it was, in what sense it is a turning point. I'm sure that a hot summer next year would soon result in this summer being forgotten. And in any case, August 2007 may change our fortunes! (I just saw a pig fly across the room)

I suspect that short-term events have tended to be slightly more extreme in the wet-dry stakes in recent years than we have been accustomed to, though TH's post further up makes interesting reading and demonstrates, if nothing else, the short-term tendency of memory.

In recent years we have had some exceedingly dry months (and longer periods) and also some spells of unusual precipitation. The greater bandwidth of rnews these days means that events get more coverage but not necessarily more circumspect assessment. Twelve months ago we were enjoying unprecedented heat and, as I recall, sustained drought in some places.

The current run is prolonged, unusual for summer, and the more noticeable for that fact, but at lresent it really can be judged as no more than a "one-off".

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
Most people from joe public I speak to lately are saying this is the coldest, wettest summer in memory, some are quite elderly.

When I tell them temperatures have been above average, they seem to think I am getting my facts wrong.

Obviously the warm nights have been responsible for propping up the average when most people I tucked up in bed, people notice the suppressed maximums during the daytime.

Paul

Hi Paul.

Interesting thread.

Well there`s no doubt that it`s the wettest summer I`ve ever seen and thats a fact and everyone else I know say the same and there`s a long way to go yet. :(

It`s affecting everything around here farming is getting hit the worst though.

1988 was a cold wet summer but June was warm and settled there`s been no restbite at all now except the beginning of June.

As for temps July 1988 was cold 14.7 CET now if this month comes close to that say 15c then that is some achievement after all the warmth earlier.

Feb 2005 was a pattern change to me but last year made methink otherwise with too much record breaking heat but if we get a colder than normal winter or more easterlies/N-ly blocking and a lows tracking like this summer or even further south then maybe something is amiss.

What is the max temp this summer so far and what about the 70s/80s max temp summer one for Mr Data I think. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Do you know what, Stratos Ferric? Until the time comes that you stop putting words into my mouth, I really don't think I can be bothered to respond to you.....

But that doesn't really explain why you can't be bothered to respond to me and my points - twice, that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
Um, in the CET zone, no less than three, I think - all of them, astonishingly, in the last 12 months: July 06 (nearly a whole degree over previous hottest), Sept 06, and April 07 (over half a degree higher). Plus, I believe, for 2006, the warmest autumn ever, and of course the warmest year ever (by quite a margin, too). When did this plateau start exactly?

From my point of view, 3 months out of 48 is not a lot.

I believe that this plateau started in 2003.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
From my point of view, 3 months out of 48 is not a lot.

I believe that this plateau started in 2003.

Thanks for that, Noggin - though in fact you'd already answered that point in your way.

The points I was interested in your comments on (I'm sorry, I don't know how to quote them on here) were:

(1) Why does the post-2003 "plateau" - a plateau, as I understand you to mean, being a period of consistently flat or near-flat temperatures after a long rise - include the hottest-ever recorded calendar year in the CET series (2006), and - by an extraordinary margin - the hottest-ever 12 month period (July 2006 - June 2007)? Both of these were considerably in excess of the temps in 2003/4/5. These are not odd months of extremes - though three top months in 12 months is exceptionally rare, in fact almost unprecedented - these are the temps measured out over the whole years in question. It could be that a plateau (or even a fall) is underway now - we just don't know - but I just can't see how three years into a plateau we are/were seeing new highs. That is by definition not a plateau, isn't it?

(2) I offered some detailed comments and facts on your presentation of the cold/snowy weather in the US and South Africa as evidence of colder conditions afoot. They're too long to repeat here, but you'll find them on page 5 of the thread.

Thanks, Ossie

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
The current run is prolonged, unusual for summer, and the more noticeable for that fact, but at lresent it really can be judged as no more than a "one-off".

Yes very reasonable quote and currently must agree.

Seperate issue: I watched the news yesterday and Meto were mentioning the cold waters off of Peru/Chile [La Nina set up] which depressed the Jet southwards. Well as ENSO is or has been neutral I don't particularly buy that as THE reason as the effect we are getting is usually from a moderate to strong La Nina.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Yes very reasonable quote and currently must agree.

Seperate issue: I watched the news yesterday and Meto were mentioning the cold waters off of Peru/Chile [La Nina set up] which depressed the Jet southwards. Well as ENSO is or has been neutral I don't particularly buy that as THE reason as the effect we are getting is usually from a moderate to strong La Nina.

BFTP

I was more amazed by the "Experts" agreeing to this. They must know there isn't a La Nina so why come out with this misleading information.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Philip Eden was on Newshight last night and coined a very nice phrase that I believe sums up this season: 'A retro summer'.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
I was more amazed by the "Experts" agreeing to this. They must know there isn't a La Nina so why come out with this misleading information.

Agreed PIT, it surprised me too

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

The retro summer hasn't finished yet either. August will be the decider for some, if it is pooh then the press will really wade in no doubt. Thats just it, the point is they may wade in and convince most that it is a turning point, rather than just a blip. We weather enthusiasts on the other hand would sit back and look at the overall picture over the next five years or so, wouldn't we?

IMO we would wait five... <_<

Russ

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

A lot of the time things tend to balance out and weather news around the world would tend to bear this out. Here is a sample of weather news for July.

Cold weather in Argentina resulted in the first major snowfall since 1918 snowfall in Buenos Aires.

Winds, blizzards and rare snowfall hit various provinces in South America causing the death of three people in this unusually cold winter season.

Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, were forced to take measures to ration energy supplies and in Bolivia and Peru a state of emergency has been declared. Temperatures reached as low as -22C in Argentina and -18C in Chile.

Heavy monsoon-related rainfall prompted landslides that killed at least 26 people in western Nepal

Heavy rain which began in June 2007 across parts of China continued in July. During the first week of July, torrential rainfall generated devastating floods and landslides which affected about 500,000 people in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing provinces.

Thirty-two people are dead and 5,000 have fled their homes in Indonesia after floods and landslides caused by heavy rains demolished homes and severed transport links.

Balkans authorities warned people to stay indoors to avoid searing temperatures that have already killed 30 people in Romania and two in Bulgaria and Greece, with another two deaths reported in Croatia.

A heat wave affected areas across the western contiguous U.S. during the first week of July. Temperatures were past 40C across the western U.S., breaking maximum temperature records in several cities.

CET records only apply to central england and are less meaningfull in a global context. Although there has been a clear trend for night time temperatures to be higher in the UK than previous, which I take to show that we have more overnight cloudiness. Many temperature records tend to show a somewhat biased picture with very few temperatures being actually recorded over the oceans and pole areas and far more in more densely populated areas. Satellite records although having a broader coverage have calibration problems. The best estimates using all sources show that surface temperatures have risen around 0.3C in the last 20 years or 0.5C in the last 50 years across the globe (rough estimates)

Globally temperatures have stopped rising as quickly at the surface over the last year or so because the sun is in a slightly weaker phase. What is noticeable is that during the recent winter outgoing longwave radiation was high showing a net cooling of the planet. Unfortunately that cooling is mostly limited to stratospheric levels which equates to more heating at the surface.

What is most noticeable this year is slow moving developing systems crossing the UK repeatedly. This reflects high pressure than normal over scandinavia and the arctic. During summer months the Azores High pressure tends to expand and ridge out with this continuing often through to september. This gives us a chance of summer improving during the coming month. During the 1960's and 1970's it was not unusual for there to be a wet month or two during the summer. The difference was that rain bands tended not to linger and for the rain to be lighter. I am not sure this summer could be called a retro summer perhaps it has some similarities to 1958.

La nina can play a part in shifting the jet stream south but it is usually a combination of conditions which cause it, an alignment which fortunately does not happen often. Records will be broken for July but equally there will be some records not broken(cloudiest,most humid, windiest, most frosts etc).

For me it is not a turning point just an alignment of factors to bring some unusual weather.

Edited by BrickFielder
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Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

I like your take on it all BF, it sounds sensible to me.

I would like and I am sure many others would like this balancing out to include our winter being proper for a change :rolleyes:

There are good signs for traditionalists?believers in folk law, that include lots of Hazel nuts and Acorns this year, sadly thats not a proven science so we will just have to wait to find out :lol:

Regards,

Russ.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Unless this goes on for a couple of years I will see it as a blip. It could be argued that these severe rain events may be enhanced by climate change in the sense that SSTs are higher, thus giving more impetus to depressions when the jet tracks as far south as this, but no turning point. After all, I remember a rather cool (certainly by recent standards) and cloudy summer for most parts in 1998, and that wasn't a turning point- 1999 was then a very warm year again, and Winter 1998/99 was a traditional westerly winter with only brief northerlies- and Winter 1999/2000 continued in a similar vein.

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