will london flood

[Bessy]

Looking at the radar on this website, a heavier pulse of rain is heading towards the southern coast anywhere east of the isle of wieght. When is high tide today?

[Paul]

I see your point and also John's, but the intensity seems to be a lot deeper than first calculated.

It's not, the rain isn't actually that heavy looking at the radar - certainly not widespread torrential as it was on friday in places. It's certainly no more heavy than was forecast from days back. Affected parts may see 25mm or so, which is what was suggested.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

If (and let us hope it is still an "if" and not a "when") London floods to whatever extent, then things will happen in terms of flood defence and making sure that the EA have the necessary planning budget. The Government cannot ignore water lapping around the entrance to Parliament. As for the Jet Stream, an article I was linked to regarding the atmosphere and Hadley/Walker Cells Explanation of El Nino explains that the beakdown of Pacific Ocean Walker Cells due to El Nino events causes more westerly winds at high tropospheric altitudes, thus causing extra wind shear and more low-pressure areas. No mention of the Jet Stream at all.

[johnholmes]

this is the chart for 14z and my comments about the rain etc.

I hope after 3 years or more posting forecast attempts my integrity on forecast matters can be believed.

In my view the forecast is pretty much spot on or else we would have already amended our Alert. It is possible we MAY have to do that but NOT at the moment.

As Paul commented the forecast is and has been pretty accurate, if viewed with an objective and fair mind, as it was in the S Yorks situation, both from about T+72 or more out.

We do need to be just a little restrained if we are not to end up overboard as the media seem hell bent on doing.

Sorry if I'm sounding bloody minded and old fashioned.

Edited July 23, 2007 by johnholmes

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

this is the chart for 14z and my comments about the rain etc.

I hope after 3 years or more posting forecast attempts my integrity on forecast matters can be believed.

In my view the forecast is pretty much spot on or else we would have already amended our Alert. It is possible we MAY have to do that but NOT at the moment.

As Paul commented the forecast is and has been pretty accurate, if viewed with an objective and fair mind, as it was in the S Yorks situation, both from about T+72 or more out.

We do need to be just a little restrained if we are not to end up overboard as the media seem hell bent on doing.

Sorry if I'm sounding bloody minded and old fashioned.

To me you don't sound bloody-minded at all - accuracy is surely important here?

[johnholmes]

that is what I'm trying to inject, so thanks.

[Just Before Dawn]

If the rainfall was anything other than that broadly predicted here, it would be all over News 24 and Sky News, given the hyperbole they've already broadcast. It hasn't been and it doesn't look like it will be. Not that it's not nice to watch Kay Burley.

[saint]

on saturday the enviorment agency said there was a serious risk on the thames and london

Edited July 23, 2007 by saint

[January Snowstorm]

The rain over the channel looks very severe to me and looks to be heading straight towards London.

If I was net weather I'd be updating things very fast for the southeast

[Rustynailer]

this is the chart for 14z and my comments about the rain etc.

I hope after 3 years or more posting forecast attempts my integrity on forecast matters can be believed.

Thanks John. As you said the rain is wrapping around the cell as it moves East, I now have clouds moving toward the SW :lol:

Spot on...

Regards,

Russ.

I now have moderate rain b/w

Edited July 23, 2007 by Rustynailer

[johnholmes]

The rain over the channel looks very severe to me and looks to be heading straight towards London.

If I was net weather I'd be updating things very fast for the southeast

do believe me when I say we are aware of what is going on and there is currently an Alert out.

[January Snowstorm]

do believe me when I say we are aware of what is going on and there is currently an Alert out.

Ok JH

Don't get mad :lol:

[Noctilucid]

Thames valley area hasnt hadmuch rain yet today, here on the north side of the valley weve had some fine rain on and off so far, currently watching the channel stuff, howevere it might start moving south again as it wraps around the low, luckily for us were 100ft up the valley side,however places further downhill such as Romford and barking look at risk, especially the river Rom and Roding/Barking Creek.

Joe

[justinflavin]

is there a risk of central london flooding? all that water going through abingdon and reading will end up in london this evening.

[Greyowl]

this is the chart for 14z and my comments about the rain etc.

I hope after 3 years or more posting forecast attempts my integrity on forecast matters can be believed.

In my view the forecast is pretty much spot on or else we would have already amended our Alert. It is possible we MAY have to do that but NOT at the moment.

As Paul commented the forecast is and has been pretty accurate, if viewed with an objective and fair mind, as it was in the S Yorks situation, both from about T+72 or more out.

We do need to be just a little restrained if we are not to end up overboard as the media seem hell bent on doing.

Sorry if I'm sounding bloody minded and old fashioned.

Not bloody minded at all John. I would much rather view a JH/Netweather forecast than some of the knee jerk media hype thats being broadcast.

[androcles]

Not bloody minded at all John. I would much rather view a JH/Netweather forecast than some of the knee jerk media hype thats being broadcast.

'Hear, hear!'

[Just Before Dawn]

is there a risk of central london flooding? all that water going through abingdon and reading will end up in london this evening.

To early to say yet.

[Upgrade]

Central london will not flood, people are posting ridiculous stuff here. The river downstream is governed by the tides and sea level changes twice a day, the rate of outflow from upstream is pretty irrelevant as soon as it gets below teddington lock its in the tidal system and the only danger comes from high spring tides and sea surges co inciding with large volumes of flood waters coming down. No surges or particcularly high tides are forecast, the floodwater will dribble harmlessly into the estuary. Forget these silly day after tomoerow scenarios. Central london is totally safe.

[VillagePlank]

I can confirm that it's steady reasonably heavy rain here. Lots of it - must be up to about an inch already.

[dallas]

I can confirm that it's steady reasonably heavy rain here. Lots of it - must be up to about an inch already.

Yep same here

[PB22]

I think some people need to grab a sense of reality here! Thankfully a lot of the rain set to fall this evening will be over those southeastern parts that didn't see so much on Friday. I can only reiterate what JH has said, and the netweather alert covers things nicely we feel.

[Jayces]

I think some people need to grab a sense of reality here! Thankfully a lot of the rain set to fall this evening will be over those southeastern parts that didn't see so much on Friday. I can only reiterate what JH has said, and the netweather alert covers things nicely we feel.

So I should stop building an ark then? Thank goodness, the wife is getting a bit annoyed with the noise from all the pairs of animals I have crammed upstairs (incase the water reaches that high!).

[justinflavin]

So I should stop building an ark then? Thank goodness, the wife is getting a bit annoyed with the noise from all the pairs of animals I have crammed upstairs (incase the water reaches that high!).

not a word of a lie. ITV Thames Valley has just interviewed a guy called Moses...

oh scrap that. it was "Noah" wasnt it?

doh!

Edited July 23, 2007 by justinflavin

[Bobby]

I also don't believe London will be flooded, not for a second, so don't worry. No fresh warnings out from me.

I really don't know where this has come from.

[hotsummer]

Watching sky news there grave concern that large parts of the Thames valley could be under water by the end of the week

Yeah I heard Windsor and Maidenhead are at risk. Although I think they may actually escape any flooding!