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Tropical Storm USAGI


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Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    looks like another one could be heading towards japan. early days yet any ideas if this could intensfie into a stronger storm?

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
    looks like another one could be heading to wards japan. early days yet any ideas if this could intensfie into a stronger storm?

    cookie don't know if this will help you

    http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    update

    Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2007 18:00 GMT

    Typhoon USAGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

    Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Japan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours

    probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    This storm has certainly strengthened very quickly: from a small depression to a Typhoon in 24 hours is fairly rapid. Looks like another storm bound for Japan as has been said. Here is the latest discussion:

    BULLETIN

    TYPHOON USAGI (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

    800 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 30 2007

    ...TROPICAL STORM USAGI UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

    ...TYPHOON USAGI MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

    THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PAGAN AND AGRIHAN IS NOW CANCELLED.

    GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM

    SOME OF THE SYSTEM'S OUTER BANDS.

    AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED

    NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES

    EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN

    215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN

    230 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN

    330 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND

    400 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

    TYPHOON USAGI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI

    IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

    NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI IS EXPECTED TO

    CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY .

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE

    CENTER.

    REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH

    AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

    THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

    SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST.

    $$

    EDSON

    So, Usagi is expected to intensify further under favourable conditions but should weaken before making landfall in Japan, exact location can't be certain yet but landfall in Japan itself is looking very likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles

    hi mate was woundering if you could tell me, do they kind of storms cause much flooding. like what can happen in america? or are the flood defences stronger?

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    hi mate was woundering if you could tell me, do they kind of storms cause much flooding. like what can happen in america? or are the flood defences stronger?

    Hi Cookie, that's a difficult question as I don't know much about the topography of Japan. I know Super Typhoon Man-Yi caused landslides and flooding so flooding definately is an issue in these Japanese landfalling typhoons. Some parts of the south coast of the USA are very low lying (eg. New Orleans, with some parts 2 meters below sea level) which is why flooding was so catastrophic with Hurricane Katrina. So these typhoons do cause dangerous floods but perhaps not as bad as vunerable parts of the gulf coast of the USA.

    EDIT: just worth saying that Usagi is nearing cat 3 strength on the saffir-simpson scale as it heads northwestwards towards Japan.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Typhoon Usagi is now cat 4 on the saffir-simpson scale and is very likely to become a Super Typhoon as more strengthening is anticipated. Perhaps category 5 isn't out of the equation.

    BULLETIN

    TYPHOON USAGI (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

    800 AM GUAM LST WED AUG 1 2007

    ...USAGI CONTINUING NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

    NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

    AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED

    NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES EAST.

    THIS IS ABOUT 675 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

    710 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN

    735 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN

    860 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND

    915 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

    TYPHOON USAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO

    CONTINUE MOVING AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD

    THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 130 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI IS FORECAST

    TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY.

    TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165 MILES FROM THE

    CENTER.

    REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 24.7 DEGREES NORTH

    AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

    THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

    WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM ON TYPHOON USAGI.

    $$

    MCELROY

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isles
  • Location: Western Isles
    Hi Cookie, that's a difficult question as I don't know much about the topography of Japan. I know Super Typhoon Man-Yi caused landslides and flooding so flooding definately is an issue in these Japanese landfalling typhoons. Some parts of the south coast of the USA are very low lying (eg. New Orleans, with some parts 2 meters below sea level) which is why flooding was so catastrophic with Hurricane Katrina. So these typhoons do cause dangerous floods but perhaps not as bad as vunerable parts of the gulf coast of the USA.

    EDIT: just worth saying that Usagi is nearing cat 3 strength on the saffir-simpson scale as it heads northwestwards towards Japan.

    thanks mate :)

    Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

    Japan

    probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours

    probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

    hopefully thier wont be any loss of life

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    Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

    Just seen it on Fox news, pretty intense @ 200kmh+ and still strengthening toward western Japan

    med_gallery_876_298_31911.jpg

    shifting the focus away from the western? hemisphere somewhat eh!

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Certainly still very strong, but it is on a weakening trend now as expected nearing Japan due to cooler waters. Still a cat 3 though and I would expect it to make landfall at the higher end of a category 2 typhoon when it makes landfall tommorrow.

    Latest remarks on the system:

    REMARKS:

    012100Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 133.4E.

    TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-

    EAST OF SASEBO, KYUSHU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17

    KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 05W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER

    THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM

    102-115 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011644Z AMSR-E

    IMAGE DEPICT WARMING EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK

    PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD

    AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITIES WERE LOWERED

    AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND

    COOL SSTS OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN (< 24-25C). ADDITIONALLY, MODEL

    ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL

    TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE ET BEFORE TAU

    72, PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER/NEAR MISAWA AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL

    SYSTEM OF 45-KNOT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

    AT 011800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,

    021500Z AND 022100Z./

    Should become extratropical soon after landfall then but will still be a fairly potent storm as it tracks across the whole of Japan, west to east. Lets hope that it won't be deadly and that expenses are minimal.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    The typhoon made landfall yesterday as a category 2 and has now emerged over the Sea Of Japan, and will continue to track northeastwards whilst becoming extratropical. Thankfully, according to this report, deaths and damage have been fairly limited so far.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/02082007news.shtml

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