Tropical Storm USAGI

[Cookie]

looks like another one could be heading towards japan. early days yet any ideas if this could intensfie into a stronger storm?

[tinybill]

looks like another one could be heading to wards japan. early days yet any ideas if this could intensfie into a stronger storm?

cookie don't know if this will help you

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/trac...namic/main.html

[Cookie]

cool thanks mate

[Cookie]

update

Storm Alert issued at 29 Jul, 2007 18:00 GMT

Typhoon USAGI is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

[Somerset Squall]

This storm has certainly strengthened very quickly: from a small depression to a Typhoon in 24 hours is fairly rapid. Looks like another storm bound for Japan as has been said. Here is the latest discussion:

BULLETIN

TYPHOON USAGI (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

800 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 30 2007

...TROPICAL STORM USAGI UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

...TYPHOON USAGI MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PAGAN AND AGRIHAN IS NOW CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FROM

SOME OF THE SYSTEM'S OUTER BANDS.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES

EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN

215 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN

230 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN

330 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND

400 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON USAGI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI

IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN

NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY .

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE

CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH

AND LONGITUDE 142.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 12 MPH WITH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST.

$$

EDSON

So, Usagi is expected to intensify further under favourable conditions but should weaken before making landfall in Japan, exact location can't be certain yet but landfall in Japan itself is looking very likely.

[Cookie]

hi mate was woundering if you could tell me, do they kind of storms cause much flooding. like what can happen in america? or are the flood defences stronger?

[Somerset Squall]

hi mate was woundering if you could tell me, do they kind of storms cause much flooding. like what can happen in america? or are the flood defences stronger?

Hi Cookie, that's a difficult question as I don't know much about the topography of Japan. I know Super Typhoon Man-Yi caused landslides and flooding so flooding definately is an issue in these Japanese landfalling typhoons. Some parts of the south coast of the USA are very low lying (eg. New Orleans, with some parts 2 meters below sea level) which is why flooding was so catastrophic with Hurricane Katrina. So these typhoons do cause dangerous floods but perhaps not as bad as vunerable parts of the gulf coast of the USA.

EDIT: just worth saying that Usagi is nearing cat 3 strength on the saffir-simpson scale as it heads northwestwards towards Japan.

Edited July 31, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Typhoon Usagi is now cat 4 on the saffir-simpson scale and is very likely to become a Super Typhoon as more strengthening is anticipated. Perhaps category 5 isn't out of the equation.

BULLETIN

TYPHOON USAGI (05W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU

800 AM GUAM LST WED AUG 1 2007

...USAGI CONTINUING NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON USAGI WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 675 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN

710 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN

735 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN

860 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND

915 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON USAGI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE MOVING AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED WITH A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD

THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 130 MPH. TYPHOON USAGI IS FORECAST

TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 165 MILES FROM THE

CENTER.

REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 24.7 DEGREES NORTH

AND LONGITUDE 137.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM ON TYPHOON USAGI.

$$

MCELROY

[Cookie]

Hi Cookie, that's a difficult question as I don't know much about the topography of Japan. I know Super Typhoon Man-Yi caused landslides and flooding so flooding definately is an issue in these Japanese landfalling typhoons. Some parts of the south coast of the USA are very low lying (eg. New Orleans, with some parts 2 meters below sea level) which is why flooding was so catastrophic with Hurricane Katrina. So these typhoons do cause dangerous floods but perhaps not as bad as vunerable parts of the gulf coast of the USA.

EDIT: just worth saying that Usagi is nearing cat 3 strength on the saffir-simpson scale as it heads northwestwards towards Japan.

thanks mate

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

hopefully thier wont be any loss of life

[mezzacyclone]

Just seen it on Fox news, pretty intense @ 200kmh+ and still strengthening toward western Japan

shifting the focus away from the western? hemisphere somewhat eh!

[Cookie]

less then 12 hrs till its due to hit!

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly still very strong, but it is on a weakening trend now as expected nearing Japan due to cooler waters. Still a cat 3 though and I would expect it to make landfall at the higher end of a category 2 typhoon when it makes landfall tommorrow.

Latest remarks on the system:

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 133.4E.

TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-

EAST OF SASEBO, KYUSHU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17

KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 05W HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER

THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM

102-115 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011644Z AMSR-E

IMAGE DEPICT WARMING EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK

PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITIES WERE LOWERED

AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND

COOL SSTS OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN (< 24-25C). ADDITIONALLY, MODEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL

TRANSITION (ET) AFTER TAU 24 AND WILL COMPLETE ET BEFORE TAU

72, PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER/NEAR MISAWA AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL

SYSTEM OF 45-KNOT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 011800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z,

021500Z AND 022100Z./

Should become extratropical soon after landfall then but will still be a fairly potent storm as it tracks across the whole of Japan, west to east. Lets hope that it won't be deadly and that expenses are minimal.

[Somerset Squall]

The typhoon made landfall yesterday as a category 2 and has now emerged over the Sea Of Japan, and will continue to track northeastwards whilst becoming extratropical. Thankfully, according to this report, deaths and damage have been fairly limited so far.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/world/news/02082007news.shtml

[Cookie]

thats gud

[rc28]

Pics and video from a uk storm chaser:

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/...ead/294596.aspx

[Cookie]

thanks for the link mate <_<