Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Stratos Ferric]

...It would seem that if a really bitter pattern is firmly set in the first part of winter, then so it remains to the end. Conversely, an average December does not always preclude a long and bitter New Year to follow.

Or that's how things used to be!

Osm, apologies if I mistook your intention, but in your final paragaph your use of "conversely, an average December..." does rather give the impression that "the first part of winter" referred to in the preceding sentence, is, in fact, December - otherwise you're not making a like for like comparison, which I think any reader would take to be your intention. I'd hardly call December + January the first part of winter when it actually amounts to the vast majority of [a standard meteorological] winter. Perhaps your use of "converse" was a tad misleading.

Whichever, the fact does remain, that however you choose to carve up the stats there is never a compelling case one way or the other. There are six instances of cold D,J,F but three more of cold D,J and mild F. Add in near misses and it becomes 7-5.

Re your suggested additions to the list I put up previously, I think the reason that your additions were not included was because I used +/-2C as the dividing line (or close to the 2C at any rate). The additional examples you gave were indeed of mild Decembers, but not extravagantly so.

Oh, and apologies for my presumption that in referring to December it wasn't obvious that I meant the preceding December to each winter. You're quite correct that the split year format would avoid that confusion.

[Roger J Smith]

I believe that for a cold winter to take place in the British Isles, various events would have to start happening fairly soon across Scandinavia. When you look at 1739-40, there were very few clues that would have been available before September 1739 began, even to us, let alone to the people living then, about the sudden plunge into arctic conditions that awaited them.

Back then, they had just experienced a fairly similar run of weather, such as, many years of above (their existing) normal temperatures, a recent mild winter, a summer rather cool but not that much cooler than other recent summers, and the main difference I could find was that the spring of 1739 was not all that warm.

So around this time of year (bearing in mind they were on the OS calendar) there would have been little obvious reason to suspect a winter as cold as legendary (to them) winters such as 1709 or 1684.

However, the autumn turned quite cool and I've read (on here, I think) that it snowed with severe frost as early as the last week of October. Surely the weather over Scandinavia and Iceland must have turned extremely cold in October and November of 1739. That must have led to widespread snow cover, ice forming early in the higher latitudes, and a rapid cooling of the Baltic and then the North Sea.

This is in part why I think that the chances of another sudden and dramatic change to a colder winter this coming season would need to show its hand in the next 6-8 weeks in regions close to the British Isles. There was nothing very unusual about the autumn or winter seasons of 1739-40 in the weather records from the eastern USA or from Tokyo where I have seen some fairly normal looking data also.

I don't think anything that dramatic is likely to happen, but I would be willing to revise that if I see various tell-tale signs of large-scale pattern change setting up in northern Europe by late September. I don't think the recent cool weather in July and parts of August really means anything in this debate, plenty of years in the past had cool summers followed by average to mild winters.

The way September appears to be developing, these tell-tale signs won't be seen early on, but there's plenty of time for it to happen, I suppose. If it goes back to another warm season and persistent above-normal temperatures in the next three months, though, I wouldn't expect more than a few brief wintry episodes at best.

Edited August 31, 2007 by Roger J Smith

[snowking]

Just something to point out from a while ago in this thread from Damien

That forecast was for a, if my memory again serves me correctly, the coldest winter since 1995/96, which we did not have - the winter of 1996/97 was colder. Those are the facts.

Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple.

You are still missing the point from what Ribster said initially. The winter was cooler than average. Fact.

The fact that it didnt snow as much as you would have liked does not mean that it was not cooler than average, as predicted

Kris

[Thundery wintry showers]

Ah yes, 2007/08- the big one IF Philip Eden's 22-23 year cold winter cycle comes to fruition (but as Philip himself says, cycles rarely work!)

I still think it's a bit early to read too much into the weather patterns, but if those SSTs end up significantly lower than last winter, then our northerlies should be modified to a lesser extent- although much also depends on the southern extent of the Arctic ice pack.

As for the severe winters, I do find myself wishing for extremes- but never prolonged extremes. I'm more of a fan of short-lived 'epsiodes' of weather, so my ideal winter would have cold snowy episodes separated by mild episodes. I certainly follow the argument that we shouldn't beat ourselves up for wishing for particular weather though- after all, it doesn't harm anyone else, as the weather does its own thing whether we like it or not.

Let's face it, anyway, if we always got the weather the British media think we should wish for, we'd have constant dry and mild all year round, rain only ever falling overnight, no snow (except briefly around Christmas), no frost, no thunderstorms, and cumulonimbus clouds would cease to exist. In other words, we'd lose many of the weather types that attract weather enthusiasts in the first place!

[Rollo]

Just read your post TWS and the favorite winter you describe must surely have been 78-79--it is asking a lot for the North-East to experience anything of that ilk this year but it would be nice to have at least one prolonged cold snowy spell of at least a weeks duration. I find ,after a heavy fall of snow and then a high settling over the country, those clear cold frosty days with snow cover and the air being so bracing something very memorable indeed-it is just that the memory is now fading as it seem so long ago.

[Paul]

Not for the feint hearted this chart, much mildness for December - taken from todays update on our lrf system (based around the cfs)

[Damien]

Just something to point out from a while ago in this thread from Damien

You are still missing the point from what Ribster said initially. The winter was cooler than average. Fact.

The fact that it didnt snow as much as you would have liked does not mean that it was not cooler than average, as predicted

Kris

Yes, and I also posted (later) that some long-term climate models in fact showed the winter of 2005/06, while indeed slightly cooler than the average over recent years, to be in fact still "warmer" than average (albeit this time (perhaps) only slightly) and more or less effectively "business as usual" for the Northern Hemisphere/North-Western Europe.

I did however say would try and dig out the relevant documents in re. to this but have not yet done so. I think Paul Dawlish may have them. B)

When you look at 1739-40, there were very few clues that would have been available before September 1739 began, even to us, let alone to the people living then, about the sudden plunge into arctic conditions that awaited them.

Roger - with all due respects - this is a false base IMHO. The winter of 1739/40 was indeed a very severe one (one of the worst on record if my memory serves me correctly?) although it did occur, as you also rightly say, at the end of a long period of run of mild and above normal winters (maybe even warmer than today? :o ) However, using this winter as a "base" ot predict the (near) future weather is just nonsense IMHO because:

1. It was like over two centuries and a half ago,

2. The climate was very different back then (although again the (perhaps semi-valid similarities to today are acknowledged),

3 We are in a period of "warmer globe" now - certainly over our neck of the woods, read into that what you will.

I even mentioned earlier in this thread how using the 1980s-type weather patterns to try and determine our future weather was also equally as erroneous due to the same reasons - and the current "global warming" significantly above average temperatures (certainly again in NW Europe). Late 1990s-type patterns are more and the most useful at best, IMHO. Although long-term factors in forecasting such as CET averages over the last 30-year period (1971-2000) shoudn't be taken out and overlooked IMHO, nor conversely over baked.

Lastly,

This is in part why I think that the chances of another sudden and dramatic change to a colder winter this coming season would need to show its hand in the next 6-8 weeks in regions close to the British Isles. There was nothing very unusual about the autumn or winter seasons of 1739-40 in the weather records from the eastern USA or from Tokyo where I have seen some fairly normal looking data also.

I don't think anything that dramatic is likely to happen, but I would be willing to revise that if I see various tell-tale signs of large-scale pattern change setting up in northern Europe by late September. I don't think the recent cool weather in July and parts of August really means anything in this debate, plenty of years in the past had cool summers followed by average to mild winters.

The way September appears to be developing, these tell-tale signs won't be seen early on, but there's plenty of time for it to happen, I suppose. If it goes back to another warm season and persistent above-normal temperatures in the next three months, though, I wouldn't expect more than a few brief wintry episodes at best.

Whilst again very true, we *have* been here before - with albeit smaller to larger factors - and the following winters have only produced what has only amounted to a short (well, month long) period of below average temperatures and snow like mid-Feb.-mid-March 2005 and the seemingly never ending cold, dry, snowless days that was winter 2005/06.

[kold weather]

Mind you Paul early March has a really interesting cold spell which probably helps to keep the first half of the month 2-3C below average and helps to keep the CEt a good 0.7-1C below normal even despite a fairly strong SW set-up towards the end of the month. Other then that seems like the latest LRF has a pretty typical even larger teapot!

Mind you it also has September 0.5C below average so we'll see how it does on that one, the CFS has constantly been forecasting a below average September so we'll see how it does on that one.

Edited August 31, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

From what I've seen the 1739 winter was global (tree rings in the USA show the smallest growth for 500 years). The main cause was largely thought to be Volcanic in nature as well. Not likely to happen nowadays.

[karyo]

Not for the feint hearted this chart, much mildness for December - taken from todays update on our lrf system (based around the cfs)

That would be a disastrous December with Russia and Eastern Europe 3 degrees above average. It would mean that the only wintry incursions would be rare and from the Atlantic!

Thankfully, the last winter's lrf was wrong and hopefully this one will be too.

Karyo

[Damien]

From what I've seen the 1739 winter was global (tree rings in the USA show the smallest growth for 500 years). The main cause was largely thought to be Volcanic in nature as well. Not likely to happen nowadays.

Also, there was more ice in the North Atlantic (certainly our little bit of it) in the 1890s - I suppose we should look out for that *sign* as well. B)

(No offence meant - but using these kind of "aged" patterns just doesn't work IMHO.

Yes, that December chart is certainly not good. Reminds me of IRI's latest (well, now August) thoughts that I posted a while back. What's January showing?

[ribster]

Not for the feint hearted this chart, much mildness for December - taken from todays update on our lrf system (based around the cfs)

And if it ends up exactly like that you can have my Decembers pay packet!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not even a LRF at the moment- it's based on CFS outputs at the moment, and we'd have to be seeing something consistent from them, I feel, certainly at this range, to be able to read much into them.

Still quite interesting to see what they come out with though!

As for 1978/79, I've had quite a few discussions on that one. I wasn't actually alive at the time (born in 1984) but all the evidence points to it having been an exceptionally snowy winter in the North East, with snowfalls in every month from November to May inclusive. I actually have a suspicion it would be too severe to be an 'ideal' winter for me, but it would be quite an experience if we were to have a winter similar to that in my lifetime!

[Weather-history]

Harry Kershaw is saying the coming winter could be severe. One or two badly researched items in there such as suggesting winter 1974-75 was one of the coldest when it was the exact opposite.

With great respect to him, I don't rate him

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/new...tal_winter.html

[osmposm]

With great respect to him, I don't rate him

Not quite sure I'd say he's due any respect - for his weather knowledge, anyway. Perhaps you just mean polite respect for his age!

[snowmadchrisuk]

That would be a disastrous December with Russia and Eastern Europe 3 degrees above average. It would mean that the only wintry incursions would be rare and from the Atlantic!

Thankfully, the last winter's lrf was wrong and hopefully this one will be too.

Karyo

it is highly unlikely that lrf will come off not with the cold pooling already becoming established quite quickly. And March can not produce we know that. Late febuary cant even produce at the moment. Id still go for a november early december cold snap. The problem is with lrf charts is you havent got to look far to find another lrf chart showing the oppersite. The good thing also about that chart is that the colder tempratures are further west which could be good for us as usually the coldest air is to far east. A few little changes in the next 4 months and the uk could bare the brunt. Anything is possible in weather world.

Edited September 1, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[Steady Easterly]

Just read your post TWS and the favorite winter you describe must surely have been 78-79--it is asking a lot for the North-East to experience anything of that ilk this year but it would be nice to have at least one prolonged cold snowy spell of at least a weeks duration. I find ,after a heavy fall of snow and then a high settling over the country, those clear cold frosty days with snow cover and the air being so bracing something very memorable indeed-it is just that the memory is now fading as it seem so long ago.

It was indeed a remarkable winter for snow here in the north east rollo, never seen anything even close to it since, i remember even at the time i was around 13 years old, and thinking this is a one off.

[Stratos Ferric]

Ah yes, 2007/08- the big one IF Philip Eden's 22-23 year cold winter cycle comes to fruition (but as Philip himself says, cycles rarely work!)

I still think it's a bit early to read too much into the weather patterns, but if those SSTs end up significantly lower than last winter, then our northerlies should be modified to a lesser extent- although much also depends on the southern extent of the Arctic ice pack.

...

One of the reasons I've gone milder for September is that the SST signature is now changing markedly again: the extensive cold surface of summer is reducing, and there's a sizeable warm pool N and NW. I'd reckon HP to our W could be a feature, and wouldn't be at all surprised if autumn was unusually dry. We MAY see more northerliness, but with warmer waters to our north even than we've endured for the last few years, my fear for this winter - if things stay as they are - would be for even more nuisance modification of the boundary.

As you say, we're encroaching on Philip's 22-23 year window, and we are well overdue something markedly cooler than the norm, but I really would doubt any prospects for anything colder than a 1996-7.

[david16]

If the warmer seas to the north last, what another dismal winter we face of the converyer belt of atlantic weather systems sweeping in all the time, and only the occasional brief 2 day northerly temporarily breaking things up which sees any snow there is only in the far north and clipping the east coast.

Same boring old SW, W and S wind patterns totally dominating the scene again this winter after all these E, NE, NNE's N's and ESE's just as prominent over the summer months as the 3 usual infamous suspect wind directions gave us just a glimmer of hope that this winter just for once that everything (low pressure systems) wouldn't be coming in from the southwest all the time.

Edited September 1, 2007 by david16

[ribster]

Well I'm liking TWOs autumn forecast.....

[Stratos Ferric]

If the warmer seas to the north last, what another dismal winter we face of the converyer belt of atlantic weather systems sweeping in all the time, and only the occasional brief 2 day northerly temporarily breaking things up which sees any snow there is only in the far north and clipping the east coast.

Same boring old SW, W and S wind patterns totally dominating the scene again this winter after all these E, NE, NNE's N's and ESE's just as prominent over the summer months as the 3 usual infamous suspect wind directions gave us just a glimmer of hope that this winter just for once that everything (low pressure systems) wouldn't be coming in from the southwest all the time.

I think the signal from this set up might actually be rather more NW'ly, and allowing for a slightly southward migration of the HP belt, there's rather more potential for polar incursions than in most recent winters. The problem would be that SSTs +2C above the norm between here and the source would rather moderate cold extremes.

[summer blizzard]

To the south west, sea surface temperature anomolies are below average, in the English Channel and North Sea, they are pretty much average, to the north they are slightly below average but to the north west they are massively above.

Luckily at almost 200 metres up, synoptics alone will pretty much do the trick, so selfishly i will say that as long as Polar Incursions are in the offing, i am not too bothered.

[Damien]

Well I'm liking TWOs autumn forecast.....

Am I in a time warp?

"November snow chance" - and even that picture! - is the same every year (or more likely every two as the memories age)! Come on people!

TWO, pattern matching does not work. These are merely presenting weather patterns, like Metcheck's yearly "LRF" does. (Link.) As in 2005, just because there are *some* favourable weather patterns throughout the rest of the year (this year - the cooler summer; in 2005 - the cooler mid-September period), doesn't mean that the rest of the year will conform to the "norm". Surely this forecast is a "demo" or a "test"?

October also being "a month of two halves" rings a bell as well.

That said, this backs up my idea of it being a "2001/02-like" winter preceded by a 2001-like autumn (with a perhaps 2000-like November), rather ironically. :o

[Damien]

Noteto

Note to Admins - I know you may not like me posting these "Archive.org" links, but this time may I do so anyway?

I always enjoy reading TWO's forecasts and both respect and commend them for their general "first of the month" rule in regard to weather forecasts. (Compare this with the Met Office's "We must keep updating this (seasonal) forecast every week to assure it's right!" stance.) But:

http://web.archive.org/web/20040901102422/...heroutlook.com/

That is practically the same forecast!!! Surely?

Here's another one!!!

http://web.archive.org/web/20030920005306/...heroutlook.com/

Again, same patterns.

Come on TWO. Care to explain more on your methods this time?

Note to anyone who may read this: I'm not doing this to attack TWO - I am doing this out of genuine surprise. I must read this same forecast every two years from TWO and yet when November comes nothing. So I'm challenging TWO - honestly - and with the maximum respect and patience they deserve with years now of experience - to explain this forecast in more detail this time and why they have come to these conclusions. Thank you.