Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Gavin P]

Well, of course Ian, you have to look at the overall warming trend and even though its a Hale Winter, the warming trend would mitigate the cold to some degree. These days, I think a winter like 95-96 would probably be about the best we can hope for and with the warming trend would probably be comparable with 1985. A winter like 1979 would be comparable these days with 1963 and I can't really see anything like that happening right now. So, something like 95-96 would be a pretty realistic winter to aim for at best, IMO.

Of course all of this about the Hale Cycle might just be another in a long list of red herrings.

Edited August 11, 2007 by Gavin P

[damianslaw]

Well, of course Ian, you have to look at the overall warming trend and even though its a Hale Winter, the warming trend would mitigate the cold to some degree. These days, I think a winter like 95-96 would probably be about the best we can hope for and with the warming trend would probably be comparable with 1985. A winter like 1979 would be comparable these days with 1963 and I can't really see anything like that happening right now. So, something like 95-96 would be a pretty realistic winter to aim for at best, IMO.

Of course all of this about the Hale Cycle might just be another in a long list of red herrings. :lol:

I'd take a 95/96 winter anyday, it produced 2 notable events the freezing christmas week from 24th-31st and the 2 day heavy snowfall of the 5/6 feb, admittedly the first of these two events only really hit Scotland and N Eng hard and the second really only hit SW Scotland, Cumbria and parts of Wales hard, but we have yet to record comparable events since..., the greta thing about 95/96 was the continunous cold which seemed to persist from early December right through to mid March again we have not had a winter since, though 05/06 was in this context a more toned down version...

[Bobby]

Expect the unexpected this year I think. Awful winter but with one monster snow event for many (most snow here for 11 years, maybe 20+ years in fact), an astonishing April and one of the wettest summers ever, below average too. Who would have predicted a below average summer? Ok, not exactly scientific, but things seem so over the place, I'm expecting anything this winter.

[beng]

I'm not sure we should conclude that we can't have a winter colder than 95/96 - even in the Medieval Warm Period there were still severe winters, but they were much less common than say during the little ice age. I think it's still quite possible, just less likely.

The Hale cycle is very interesting and it does seem to coincide with extreme weather in W Europe - whether this has an impact and leads to a very cold winter - or a winter extreme in another way, we'll see very shortly.

It's also worth noting that the current solar cycle is longer than we've seen recently - indeed we may not reach the minimum until into next year. The hale effect, if it exists, could be more prolonged than say the 80s due to the extended minimum.

One other thing - I noticed on Eastern US someone mentioning that the GLAAM or globally averaged atmospheric angular momentum is very low at the moment and traditionally this leads to extreme blocking patterns in winter months (I won't mention the year they quoted as it would sound like a ramp) - I'll be honest I've never heard of this before - would anyone like to comment as to what this is all about?

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139640

[Damien]

The observed cycles do point to a colder winter. This is based on:

1. Hale's sun spot polarity law - determines solar activity based on magentic cycles within the sun.

2. Kepler's 3 laws of plantary motion - the earth's orbit is eliptical around the sun, so there are periods in our winter that coincide with attaining the greatest distance frim the sun.

3. Chandler's wobble - small 'wobbles' in the earth's rotation that are thought to impact weather events such as El Nino

4. Angle of earth's axis orientation to the sun - determines seasonally whether Northern or Southern hemisphere's face the sun.

5. volcanic activity/stratospheric pollution

None of these things have ever helped us in the past, though I agree ENSO conditions are currently very favourable.

[Glacier Point]

One other thing - I noticed on Eastern US someone mentioning that the GLAAM or globally averaged atmospheric angular momentum is very low at the moment and traditionally this leads to extreme blocking patterns in winter months (I won't mention the year they quoted as it would sound like a ramp) - I'll be honest I've never heard of this before - would anyone like to comment as to what this is all about?

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=139640

FWIW, current mark falls below anything since 1983.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...curr.reanal.gif

[Damien]

again we have not had a winter since, though 05/06 was in this context a more toned down version...

Yeah, the snow trimmed down a thousandfold.

Who would have predicted a below average summer?

Bill Giles.

The NOAA did *quite* well too.

Who would have predicted a below average summer? Ok, not exactly scientific, but things seem so over the place, I'm expecting anything this winter.

Agreed. I am too, though I'm betting on mild, as always.

[summer blizzard]

My anologue reasearch currently points to a higher than average incidence of northerly winds, however it also shows a higher than average incidence of westerly winds, thus favouring an above average winter, but not too far from average and above average rainfall.

[skifreak]

My anologue reasearch currently points to a higher than average incidence of northerly winds, however it also shows a higher than average incidence of westerly winds, thus favouring an above average winter, but not too far from average and above average rainfall.

I'd settle for constant NW'ly!

[Weather-history]

The observed cycles do point to a colder winter. This is based on:

2. Kepler's 3 laws of plantary motion - the earth's orbit is eliptical around the sun, so there are periods in our winter that coincide with attaining the greatest distance frim the sun.

I think you need to rethink that. We are at our closest to the sun during early January and will be for a long time to come as Earth's perihelion date slowly drifts through the calendar.

Greatest distance of the Earth from the Sun (aphelion) occurs during early July

If we have a colder winter it certainly won't be due to this

Edited August 12, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Gray-Wolf]

If you take a global perspective over the last few winters some areas have really had a pounding whilst others have escaped unscathed. With our 'flooded' summer we should all be mindful that these 'extremes' are all part of the balancing act our planet is desperately trying to play as we (humans) turn up the thermostat. As such it would be as easy for our little island to be sat under NWerly feeds for a number of weeks (we all know how 'static' some of the ULL have been and their results to the northern feed ....NE Canada/West Greenland last winter/spring).

It in no way would signal a change in our predicament (so far as continued warming is concerned) but would just emphasise the extremity of the airmass mixing (for all that that spills south an equal amount pushes north). In some ways bathing NE Canada/West Greenland is the worst case scenario as they appear to be the only areas of the ice cap land locked by multi year ice and any early inroads to it's ablation, or lack of snow build up over winter, would make it all the easier for the ice cap to be ' free floating' next summer raising the spectre of central multi year ice being driven (by wind and ocean currents) into shallower,warmer waters increasing it's ablation.

Strange times indeed.

Edited August 12, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Rustynailer]

I would regard this thread as a dream come true if we do get a cold winter, those ECPC charts on page 1 are very attractive from a cold lovers point of view.

Besides all the Hazel is full of nuts this year and Oak too, first time they have both been good since 94. in Hazels case this is the most I have ever seen ( :lol: )

I am a huge fan of the Hale cycle already even though its the first time I have ever herd the name mentioned B) I can't wait...the thought of a bad winter, its a nice feeling like thinking I can win the lottery and what happens if I do This year I hope the chances are considerably easier. I am sure winter only went away for a holiday really.

Russ

[laserguy]

How I agree,Rustynailer.The thought of a shockingly, shockingly cold and desolate winter with huge drifts and abandoned roads gives me a nice warm rosy glow inside. Bring it on!!!

[laserguy]

Yes Global cooling begins this winter

Tamara

Oh,please,please,please may it come to pass!!

[pottyprof]

I think you need to rethink that. We are at our closest to the sun during early January and will be for a long time to come as Earth's perihelion date slowly drifts through the calendar.

Greatest distance of the Earth from the Sun (aphelion) occurs during early July

If we have a colder winter it certainly won't be due to this

No but this could be why the mild winters and why the planet is warming...... and why the S pole is getting colder..... But that's another issue.

Ho hum...

[Roger J Smith]

It's worth keeping in mind that the very cold winter of 1739-40 came on after the summer of 1739 had failed to reach the higher values that had become routine (relative to the existing 50-100 year baselines) in the 1730s and also after quite a mild winter in 1738-39.

While the whole period was probably half a degree colder than the recent warming, the degree of contrast from earlier times and the sudden downturn in the autumn of 1739 would be similar in scale, if let's say this rather cool summer continued into a colder than average autumn.

As I say, this is not a predictive statement I am making, just an observation that something like the possible outcome has happened naturally in the past.

If the autumn goes back to the recent trend of above normal temperatures though, I don't foresee much chance of a blockbuster cold winter, from my research the window of opportunity for cold would be rather early in January and that's not necessarily a good set-up because there always seems to be a peak in the zonal flow around New Years.

[shuggee]

It's surely not time already to pop into the vault, blow off the dust and cobwebs and ressurect this?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33787

[Damien]

Besides all the Hazel is full of nuts this year and Oak too, first time they have both been good since 94. in Hazels case this is the most I have ever seen ( )

They were in the early 2000s (in some years), and the winters were all still mild, bar the odd blast (late February 2005).

I am a huge fan of the Hale cycle already even though its the first time I have ever herd the name mentioned :lol: I can't wait...the thought of a bad winter, its a nice feeling like thinking I can win the lottery and what happens if I do This year I hope the chances are considerably easier. I am sure winter only went away for a holiday really.

I'm also a huge fan of the solar cycle, the ENSO cycle, the polar cycles, the this cycle, the that cycle, etc..

The only things that make our chances *slightly* better this year are the ENSO conditions and the recent run of below average months (the cooler summer). That's it.

Oh, and of course Bill Giles thoughts. B)

[Roger J Smith]

Well, keep the helicopters on the ground, all I'm saying is that a much colder winter can develop rather quickly out of a previously above-normal regime. The objection is bound to be, "yes but it has never been this warm before" with reference to the last 20 years or so.

But you would have to imagine that the winter of 1739-40 came as quite a shock to the system for those people after quite a long stretch of warmer than average weather.

I am one who believes that natural variation is not a dead issue whatever the cause of recent warming in western Europe, and any variation is theoretically possible despite the changing probabilities implied by the recent trends.

Also, I have my own reasons to suspect that the warming trend will be fairly robust and resistant to changes as large as a cold winter with long intervals of snow or sub-freezing weather, not related to AGW but more to the recent shift in the position of the North Magnetic Pole. However, neither AGW nor this magnetic shift could totally prevent a cold winter from developing if the synoptics were exactly right, but I suspect with the warmer Baltic and North Sea temperatures that have become routine, the synoptics would have to be pretty impressive to get enough cold air across the barriers to the UK, as we saw in 2006 a moderate set-up wasn't much use in generating actual snowfall despite temperatures and wind directions that were marginally favourable. If we were to see significant cooling of the Baltic in the autumn months, I think that would be a really hopeful sign, and perhaps even a necessary condition for really wintry weather reaching most of the UK.

[laserguy]

Bill Giles! I remember him as a kid (me,not him!),and he's the only tv forecaster I ever took seriously! Where is he now?

[Rollo]

Lets be all honest with ourselves and admit the chances of a blockbuster winter ore minimal but mother nature probably does not realise this and I think Tamara is going to be a happy bunny when the coming long long cold winter begins.

[Stratos Ferric]

It's surely not time already to pop into the vault, blow off the dust and cobwebs and ressurect this?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33787

Mmm, the first signs of winter...

[MP-R]

Cool! Looks like this winter is going to be an interesting one. Is there any way of you finding the charts for NOvember 2005 which was also colder than average? I'm getting excited now.

[Steady Easterly]

It looks like being the coldest winter since the last cold one, everything points to this.

[Damien]

Cool! Looks like this winter is going to be an interesting one. Is there any way of you finding the charts for NOvember 2005 which was also colder than average? I'm getting excited now.

I stopped getting excited in 2005 (only got excited in 2005 because the Met Office were forecasting a cold winter - and how wrong that was ). I would have thought someone with almost 2,000 posts would know that, no offence.

Now I'm just vengeful and planning my move. Only reason I made this thread was because Bill Giles and ECPC's thoughts were, as I have said, correlating and worth reporting.