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Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)


Damien

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

daer oh dear Damien, still unable to quote exactly what was said just what you want to see/hear.

By the way it might help to let us all know your area/town please, the UK is quite a large place with a large variation in weather from one end to the other?

many thanks

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
I stopped getting excited in 2005 (only got excited in 2005 because the Met Office were forecasting a cold winter - and how wrong that was :hi: ). I would have thought someone with almost 2,000 posts would know that, no offence.

Now I'm just vengeful and planning my move. :pardon: Only reason I made this thread was because Bill Giles and ECPC's thoughts were, as I have said, correlating and worth reporting. :)

Hi Damien, I'm as much a cold lover as you, but the met office forecast a colder than average winter, and it was, no ifs or buts, it simply was. With the odd decent event thrown in here and there, although not for everyone of course - I can post the pics if you like.

Would be nice if Mr. Giles and the ECPC are right, but a long long way to go yet.....

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

the full text of their first attempt to get the media and others to print what was actually printed in their first press release rather than the hype that we all saw.

28 October 2005

The prospect of a cold winter is currently the subject of significant speculation amid reports that forecasters expect the coldest winter since 1963.

The Met Office's winter forecast does not make these extreme claims but does suggest that the coming winter will be colder and drier than normal. However it is too early to be specific about the timing and severity of any individual cold spells.

Most of the winters in the last ten years have been relatively mild. This perhaps gives the impression that this type of winter is now 'normal' meaning a colder winter would be more noticeable.

The Met Office winter forecast is based on techniques which, for the broad weather patterns across Europe, are correct about two times in three.

this was then followed by their full review, part of which I copy below from 3 March 2006

UK mean temperature Most likely colder than average Warmer than average

Southern UK mean temperature Most likely colder than average Colder than average

the link to their full comments and also it will link you in to items from press releases from January 2005 up to now is below

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...r20060303b.html

thus if we are honest with ourselves it depended where our local area was, the southern half did have much as they predicted colder and drier than average. The further north one lived then the less accurate it was.

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
daer oh dear Damien, still unable to quote exactly what was said just what you want to see/hear.

By the way it might help to let us all know your area/town please, the UK is quite a large place with a large variation in weather from one end to the other?

many thanks

LOL I knew that would get a reply out of you, John! :pardon:

Yes, I live just south of Leeds. There are great fluctuations in this reason - i.e.: snowlines, etc..

Hi Damien, I'm as much a cold lover as you, but the met office forecast a colder than average winter, and it was, no ifs or buts, it simply was. With the odd decent event thrown in here and there, although not for everyone of course - I can post the pics if you like.

That forecast was for a, if my memory again serves me correctly, the coldest winter since 1995/96, which we did not have - the winter of 1996/97 was colder. Those are the facts.

Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple.

Furthermore, long-term climatological models don't back up the Met Office on that. Say what you want because your region was "lucky", it's all there. 2005/06 was just the latest in a long line of phantom winters. Period.

That winter was also the last straw for me, on another note. Now I'm off to the Alps to get proper seasons again, like I loved when I was a child. Period.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
LOL I knew that would get a reply out of you, John! :pardon:

Yes, I live just south of Leeds. There are great fluctuations in this reason - i.e.: snowlines, etc..

That forecast was for a, if my memory again serves me correctly, the coldest winter since 1995/96, which we did not have - the winter of 1996/97 was colder. Those are the facts.

Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple.

Furthermore, long-term climatological models don't back up the Met Office on that. Say what you want because your region was "lucky", it's all there. 2005/06 was just the latest in a long line of phantom winters. Period.

That winter was also the last straw for me, on another note. Now I'm off to the Alps to get proper seasons again, like I loved when I was a child. Period.

Bye.

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
There are great fluctuations in this reason - i.e.: snowlines, etc..

Oops, that should read "There are great fluctuations in this region - i.e.: snowlines, etc..". My bad.

The line "Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple." was tongue-in-cheek BTW; I acknowledge what the South and East got but, as John rightly says, the MetO were less correct on the long-suffering (since the mid-1990s!) North and West regions of the country.

Sorry if I upset anyone, I just take this kind of thing personally, as you all know. John H. is an excellent poster, I just feel stronger than he, as an experienced ex-MetO employee does, that the MetO incorrectly called my region of the world.

For the record I am not the only person refuting the Met Office winter of 2005/06 forecast. Paul Dawlish also is.

@ KTom: Bye!bye.gif

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Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham

Sorry if I upset anyone, I just take this kind of thing personally, as you all know. John H. is an excellent poster, I just feel stronger than he, as an experienced ex-MetO employee does, that the MetO incorrectly called my region of the world.

Why would you take a long range forecast personally? its really not that important you know, its just an educated guess at what might occur, nothing personal. :pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

So amazingly IMBY that veiw is Damien, so if you got 18 inches of snow and everyone else got none then would you say it was a great winter because it snowed lots in your backyard...I note that you use the words "My snow" as well.

Facts are simple---2005/06 was below average like forecast and drier then average as forecast. Everything else wasn't forecasted by the met-office so they couldn't be wrong. It was a snowy winter though it did have some events, then again we should never assume cold=snowy. If i recall rightly the north was forecast average temps while the south aobut 0.5C cooler then average which was extremely close to what

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire
  • Location: South Yorkshire

Damien,or anyone! Where's Bill Giles to be found now?? Please no sarcasm along the lines of "probably sat at home with his feet up watching 'Heartbeat'"!!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Oops, that should read "There are great fluctuations in this region - i.e.: snowlines, etc..". My bad.

The line "Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple." was tongue-in-cheek BTW; I acknowledge what the South and East got but, as John rightly says, the MetO were less correct on the long-suffering (since the mid-1990s!) North and West regions of the country.

Sorry if I upset anyone, I just take this kind of thing personally, as you all know. John H. is an excellent poster, I just feel stronger than he, as an experienced ex-MetO employee does, that the MetO incorrectly called my region of the world.

For the record I am not the only person refuting the Met Office winter of 2005/06 forecast. Paul Dawlish also is.

@ KTom: Bye!bye.gif

"-Winter 2005/06 - average to mild (like 1996/97), progressively milder with a very mild February (quite good)"

Taken from your avatar.

Your prediction for that winter wasn't exactly that good. It was nothing like winter 1996-97 and February wasn't very mild. If anything it got progressively colder at the back end of February. It was a late winter that year, it could be argued.

The November-March period of 05-06 was the lowest CETwise since 95-96. :hi:

As for Paul Dawlish, he would try and split the hairs off a bald man's head. :pardon:

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
Why would you take a long range forecast personally? its really not that important you know, its just an educated guess at what might occur, nothing personal. :pardon:

(I'm gonna get in deep water with Paul B. + co. for saying this but since you asked... I'll say this only once.) Well, if you insert most of our non-MetO frequented weather websites into Archive.org, you will see why. :):) :o

Shocking (and false) predictions of cold winter after severe winter after cold winter that goes back years.

If i recall rightly the north was forecast average temps while the south aobut 0.5C cooler then average which was extremely close to what happened.

Climatologically, yes. But long-term warming models still showed a milder than average winter, again if I recall correctly.

And I said that my "IMBY" comments were tongue-in-cheek, LOL. :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Pennines
  • Location: Pennines
Does anybody really care? (apart from his dear old wife.

LOL, well you opened this thread (partially entitled "Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles")! :)

It was nothing like winter 1996-97 and February wasn't very mild.

Thanks for your support... dissenter!, LOL. :lol:

Sorry again if I irked anyone with my earlier comments. And no I don't know where Bill Giles is now... I asked that question earlier in the thread myself! :o Is he still with Metcheck?

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Posted
  • Location: East Durham
  • Location: East Durham
(I'm gonna get in deep water with Paul B. + co. for saying this but since you asked... I'll say this only once.) Well, if you insert most of our non-MetO frequented weather websites into Archive.org, you will see why. :) :o :)

Shocking (and false) predictions of cold winter after severe winter after cold winter that goes back years.

Climatologically, yes. But long-term warming models still showed a milder than average winter, again if I recall correctly.

And I said that my "IMBY" comments were tongue-in-cheek, LOL. :o

Oh well, thats cleared that up hasnt it :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

those that are perhaps new to Damien may be somwehat puzzled by what is being said by him.

Its the usual story from him. He ignores factual eveidence, and trots out his own version of what he thinkhs happened. You give him actual data for his area and he will still argue black is white.

I will refrain from posting again as its a waste of time trying to get him to read the relevant data let alone comment correctly about it.

If you ever read this Bill just ignore it.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

easy to do just got wetter and dig one out or to the site for 47 and 63 which has some actual weather maps.

sorry not got the link to hand.

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
Oops, that should read "There are great fluctuations in this region - i.e.: snowlines, etc..". My bad.

The line "Yes, post the pics.. That winter was phantom and you can fool for yourself with photos all you want. I didn't get my snow = no winter. Pure and simple." was tongue-in-cheek BTW; I acknowledge what the South and East got but, as John rightly says, the MetO were less correct on the long-suffering (since the mid-1990s!) North and West regions of the country.

Sorry if I upset anyone, I just take this kind of thing personally, as you all know. John H. is an excellent poster, I just feel stronger than he, as an experienced ex-MetO employee does, that the MetO incorrectly called my region of the world.

For the record I am not the only person refuting the Met Office winter of 2005/06 forecast. Paul Dawlish also is.

@ KTom: Bye!bye.gif

LOL, didn't upset me Damien, I was just stating the facts as I saw them, yes it wasn't so good further north, but I did say there were a few events, but not for everyone. Not to rub salt in the wound, but we did have a few ice days and a fair bit of lying snow - was wonderful! Maybe we were lucky - 29th December sticks out in my mind, was stood in the supermarket car park and the heavens absolutely opened up.....

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Posted
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex
  • Location: North Yorks, prev West Essex

I thought that 2005/06, was a chilly winter down here! 06/07, very warm.

Having said that, I don't miss the early 80s winters.................2ft icicles, ice creeping up on the INSIDE of the windows in the evenings!

Snow that never seemed to go away [try dragging a push chair, plus shopping home in that!] Chilblains [i was 22!!]

We were heading for a "mini ice age" at that time. Yet a few years later, it's globle warming!

The weather is the weather, prone to changes over time. Nothing us mere mortal's can do about it either. I love our weather, so odd, so unpredictable.

Which is why, we LOVE to talk about it.

Just keep the Wellies handy, and a spade in the boot! [or in my case, an old kids blackboard] to dig yourselves out of snowdrifts. Or sunglasses for Jan/feb, and factor 16.

Be prepared..................for anything. lol

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Shocked this Hasn't been closed by a mod yet , Usually any sign of a winter disscussion in august is considered way to early and is closed. But me for one think there is a need for a winter discussion early this year as there are a few unusual things happening such as, la nina, hale winter, wet/cooler summer lower sst's and also by the end of the gfs run cold pooling is building up nicely to our north.

The Hale winter has been quite accurate over the years but of course the further back you go the more normal it was to have a cold winter anyway.

La nina... It is interesting to read that la nina is rebuilding and strenthening again more so in the last 2 weeks than all year.

The cool/wet summer is because of the southerly jet, but there is suggestions that a cold winter can often follow a cool summer ( I think this is more coinsidence)

Lower ssts, more noticable on the easten us sea.

As for bill giles, great bloke and good call on this summer but i do not believe he can call this winter in 2000. Unless he has recent evidence to back up his lrf then i'm going to discount this for now as we need to look at current events and what is happening now, the past is the past but if u believe in gw then the past isnt going to have much effect on the future.

Of course there is also them nice noaa charts on page 1, November can be snowy as it was a couple of years ago, but I do think that chart is a little far fetched.

Nice to see tamara on here was on page 3 of this topic thought to my self where the hell is tamara shes bound to be on a thread like this and then as if by magic tamara was the next post on the page... so coincidences do happen.

I for one hope we do have a cold winter this year as I love weather extremes and look forwards to following john holmes blogs as he usually follows the winter storms and does updates with every model run. I'm also looking forwards to the weather extremes of this tuesday and see what this powerfull low gives us.

Regards for now and if your still up look outside to the north east as there is a magnificant shooting star display over leicestershire at the moment.

Chris

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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