Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Damien]

those that are perhaps new to Damien may be somwehat puzzled by what is being said by him.

Its the usual story from him. He ignores factual eveidence, and trots out his own version of what he thinkhs happened. You give him actual data for his area and he will still argue black is white.

I will refrain from posting again as its a waste of time trying to get him to read the relevant data let alone comment correctly about it.

If you ever read this Bill just ignore it.

John, my last post on this.

I apologised and said you were right: although with some disagreement - and admittedly personal bias - I argue/d that the MetO winter of 2005/06 forecast, while accurate in the South and East, was way wrong for *certain* areas up North (like mine), as you rightly say. I agree you are right and said sorry.

That said, there are certain figures which people such as Dawlish (now banned) have presented that proved that winter 2005/06, while partially accurate for the South-East, was in fact way out further up North, with the usual extremes in mildness being reported. I'll have to see if I can dig those charts up at some point so we can examine them.

As for me constantly attacking the Met Office (not true BTW - but I have in the past (arguably unjustly) savaged the 2005/06 winter forecast): you weren't here last Friday evening when people were bashing Bill Giles in the model output discussion thread. I was the only person there who defended him (having admired his forecasts (for some, err... obvious reasons) from 2001/02 or 2002 onwards). Some attacks were *very* below the belt, and you will know what I mean.

I'm not attacking anyone: just saying that I disagree with the MetO winter 2005/06 forecast total accuracy claim: and have since apologised for my earlier mild ranting. I know we don't always see eye to eye but I complemented you as a great and experienced forecaster/poster: and I respect that. It's somewhere earlier in the thread: before it got hijacked by the "anti-Bill" brigade: and I hope you saw it and I apologise again for my seeming angry, anti-MetO forecast comments.

Again, sorry and let's end the discussion on winter 2005/06 once and for all and continue the discussion on winter 2007/08. Thank you.

[johnholmes]

thank you Damien and no I had not seen what was said about Bill Giles.

[kold weather]

Interestingly the GLAAM right now is heading for record levels of -ve.

By the way the GLAAM is the Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum, its hard to expalin and I don't really know enough to try and explain other then Zonal will thus correspond to -ve GLAAM, while meridional times will have +ve GLAAM. Its not surpising relaly that we've had nearly a record breaking -ve, hence a big part of the reason why we've had such a wet summer overall...

However looking back at past events shows some extremely interesting results because it seems both 1988-89 and 1962-63 had very extreme events and interestingly you have one of the coldest and mildest winters on record both have very -ve totals. So what good is it then when they have two compeltwely different years have similar figures to start with?

Well remember -ve is zonal. However here appears to be where the AO come sinto play. 1962-63 had one of the strongerst- ve AO figures while 88-89 the strongest +ve value. So what appears to have been the difference is where the blocking set up. In the case of 1988-89 the jet set up way north and thus we had a constant zonal flow with winds coming from the SW generally. However in 1962-63 the jet set-up much further south thanks to the strong Arctic blocking.

Generally the figures suggest that you either have a decently above average winter (1C+ above) or decently below average (1C below) when you have figures as strong as we currently have...the key tohugh is will it last till winter as strong as it is now?

Finally its worth noting that -ve values are usually linked with a La nina, sometimes a strong one at that.

[Glacier Point]

Finally its worth noting that -ve values are usually linked with a La nina, sometimes a strong one at that.

and ENSO positive or negative phases tend to intensify the particular modality of the Arctic Oscillation. No coinicidence that the winter of 1988/9 went for a turbocharged +AO with strong La Nina at play. Last year's winter (moderate El Nino) was I suspect part of the reasoning behind the rampantly positive AO.

An awful lot this winter depends on the state of the AO.

[beng]

and ENSO positive or negative phases tend to intensify the particular modality of the Arctic Oscillation. No coinicidence that the winter of 1988/9 went for a turbocharged +AO with strong La Nina at play. Last year's winter (moderate El Nino) was I suspect part of the reasoning behind the rampantly positive AO.

An awful lot this winter depends on the state of the AO.

Hi GP - presumably the AO this winter might be influenced a great deal by the state of the QBO? In which case we need to hope the Easterly QBO maintains a decent strength until well into Feb - any idea on the likelihood of that?

Another factor might be the state of the Arctic Sea Ice (or lack of it) - this may deliver large (relative to normal) snowfalls to Siberia and Canada before it completely freezes over - which may have some impact on winter synoptics (I suspect that's where chaos plays a big part).

Ben

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

More than happy to oblige

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119630101.gif

Tamara

Hi Chris

Yes coincidences do happen - maybe New Year 2008 we will have a silver 25th anniversary celebration?

By the way your March 07 snow dome sig is out of date

Tamara

Yes that is a stunning chart Tamara.What would we give for something similar this time round?Solid block to our NW and you can see those systems off the Eastern seaboard going nowhere in a hurry,look at the the lovely LP over Azores and into Europe,cold rampers dreams come true!!!!

With regards to the coming winter,enjoyable as these threads are,IMO they dont mean a great deal.

[Bobby]

More than happy to oblige

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119630101.gif

Tamara

Mmm, it doesnt get any better than that.

[disco-barry]

Showing your age there Tamara.....

[NorthantsSnow]

Yes that is a stunning chart Tamara.What would we give for something similar this time round?Solid block to our NW and you can see those systems off the Eastern seaboard going nowhere in a hurry,look at the the lovely LP over Azores and into Europe,cold rampers dreams come true!!!!

With regards to the coming winter,enjoyable as these threads are,IMO they dont mean a great deal.

The way I see it is, we might as well be optimistic about it as there's no reason why we couldn't have a significantly cold winter. The cold is still very much available, even if it is less likely than say, 20 years ago.

[Anti-Mild]

Just like previous winters, this one has the potential to be a cold one if all of the pieces fall into place.

The difference, IMO, in this winter is that it has the potential to be very cold indeed, perhaps on a par (dare I say it?) with 1978/79.

Consider the factors that already appear to be in our favour:

1) The probability of a highly negative GLAAM, which I don't fully understand but I gather that a highly negative figure can point towards a very blocked or very zonal pattern (see below).

2) The distinct possibility of a -ve NAO signal for this winter, particularly later in the season.

3) The fact that this winter falls within the Hale Cycle (although it could be next year.

4) The fact that due to the cool and wet summer may result in lower soil temperatures.

However, all of these positives may be overridden by the AO signal. If the AO is positive then we will be in for a 1988/89 style winter which was not altogther different from last winter :unsure: . Alternatively, if the AO is negative then batten down the hatches as it could be one to remember!! :unsure:

[NorthYorksWeather]

Just like previous winters, this one has the potential to be a cold one if all of the pieces fall into place.

The difference, IMO, in this winter is that it has the potential to be very cold indeed, perhaps on a par (dare I say it?) with 1978/79.

Consider the factors that already appear to be in our favour:

1) The probability of a highly negative GLAAM, which I don't fully understand but I gather that a highly negative figure can point towards a very blocked or very zonal pattern (see below).

2) The distinct possibility of a -ve NAO signal for this winter, particularly later in the season.

3) The fact that this winter falls within the Hale Cycle (although it could be next year.

4) The fact that due to the cool and wet summer may result in lower soil temperatures.

However, all of these positives may be overridden by the AO signal. If the AO is positive then we will be in for a 1988/89 style winter which was not altogther different from last winter :unsure: . Alternatively, if the AO is negative then batten down the hatches as it could be one to remember!! :unsure:

I like the sound of a winter on par with 1978/1979

That would do me just nicely

[mcweather]

2007/2008 will be a Hale Winter. Philip Eden also pointed out a few years back, how 2007/2008 had a higher probability of being cold, than most winters in the christmas pudding. Infact, in his 1st January 2000 column I believe he joked it could be the last severe winter of the third millennium?

Anyway, being a Hale Winter, this is probably where Bill Giles got his idea's from? As for the November chart, it certainly looks good, but just remember the saying;

Ice to bear a duck, there will be nothing left but slush and muck....

Very wet and reasonably mild would do me for November.

Just to add a little fizz to the mix. In his Daily Telegraph book of the weather (past and future climate changes explained) Philip Eden creates a set of notional weather headlines for the 21st century. The first one is for feb 2008 suggesting that we might be in the grip of the harshest winter since 1978/9. But the most interesting part of the the whole thing is not his description of cold and snow setting in the weekend before christmas but the fact that it follows on from a poor summer.

[mcweather]

Wouldn't it be fantastic if he was to be writing retrospectively about it in his next book!??

Tamara

It sure would Tamara. We winter lovers certainly need a an injection of the real thing to keep us going. Long live the beast from the east.

[summer blizzard]

Hi GP - presumably the AO this winter might be influenced a great deal by the state of the QBO? In which case we need to hope the Easterly QBO maintains a decent strength until well into Feb - any idea on the likelihood of that?

Another factor might be the state of the Arctic Sea Ice (or lack of it) - this may deliver large (relative to normal) snowfalls to Siberia and Canada before it completely freezes over - which may have some impact on winter synoptics (I suspect that's where chaos plays a big part).

Ben

Beng, the two main players this winter, will be the PDO or QBO, whichever one rules, both look like supporting a negative AO signal.

Indeed Beng, while more sea ice loss will mean a later snow date for the Arctic regions, it should mean heavier snowfalls, this conceling out the effect of the lost sea ice by winter.

[KDME]

This thread makes for very interesting reading.

However, I reckon that we should take all this info with a pinch of salt. I read on this forum a fair bit and more times than not, Mother Nature rarely goes by scientific prediction in this day and age. Unsettled has been the theme since last November, apart from a summer feeling April/May, this unsettled theme has rumbled on and on and on and on in a very seasonless kind of way.

[Glacier Point]

anyone seen Roeder's output for December ?

http://www.climaprog.de/website0706008.htm

let's hope it is cold in Siberia during November...

Worth taking a little notice of, given the correct call for +ve height anomalies during June and July over Greenland..

http://www.climaprog.de/website0706002.htm

http://www.climaprog.de/website0706003.htm

Edited August 15, 2007 by Glacier Point

[Damien]

anyone seen Roeder's output for December ?

Worth taking a little notice of, given the correct call for +ve height anomalies during June and July over Greenland..

Agreed - but remember he forecast a winter "comparable" to 1962/63 last year - and it was (well, obviously) wrong. :lol:

Roeder does this too much so I tend to *generally* take in but ultimately ignore his forecasts.

[Weather-history]

anyone seen Roeder's output for December ?

http://www.climaprog.de/website0706008.htm

That was two months ago though. It hasn't updated since early June. :lol:

[jethro]

Can I have an '81/'82 winter please? Wasn't around for '63, the '81 winter is the one which sticks in my memory - fantastic! More please.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Agreed - but remember he forecast a winter "comparable" to 1962/63 last year - and it was (well, obviously) wrong. :lol:

Roeder does this too much so I tend to *generally* take in but ultimately ignore his forecasts.

I think you will find that it was a typo Damien and what he meant to say was actually ‘winter 2007/08’ Anyway…. nice to see a few familiar faces on here as we steam headlong into winter without so much as an Autumn

Hello All

Ned

[Optimus Prime]

I find this positive thinking about a cold winter difficult when we're staring at the warmest year on record for the Northern Hemisphere and a record breaking low sea ice extent.

[Timmytour]

All this talk of a winter on a par with 1978/9 is overcooking the optimism a little isn't it?

I mean let's not forget that preceding that winter there was a cold and wet July and August.... and also a Hurricane named Flossie....

Come On the Snow!!

:lol:

[Coast]

I think this poor 2007 is going to be remembered as having the most incredibly early and preemptive ramping season! :lol:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the hurricane season is starting to kick off with the noaa still expecting an above normal hurricane season even more so now than there forecast in may. La nina is still moderate and so all in all we have a chance of a good winter season for the uk. My main concern for this winter would be the pressence of high pressure over the uk. But we will have to wait a while to see what is predicted on that front. Awaiting the next met office update on this matter and am expecting them to remain with a slightly below avarege season .

[derrylynne]

Well the hurricane season is starting to kick off with the noaa still expecting an above normal hurricane season even more so now than there forecast in may. La nina is still moderate and so all in all we have a chance of a good winter season for the uk. My main concern for this winter would be the pressence of high pressure over the uk. But we will have to wait a while to see what is predicted on that front. Awaiting the next met office update on this matter and am expecting them to remain with a slightly below avarege season .

A high pressure system over the uk. What a wonderful thought to have a high pressure system over the UK all winter. Sunshine by day with cold frosty nights. Beats the mild and drizzle with low cloud we suffer for endless weeks here.....