Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[phoenixnights]

Cold and frosty would be nice, at least u can get out and about in that and not get wet :lol:

[Bobby]

I agree. Sunny, cold, frosty clear winter's days are the best weather of all in my opinion.

[disco-barry]

Nothing quite like the day after heavy snow where it remains cold enough for it to be sunny but not melt anything, not a common thing but a good thing.

[Anti-Mild]

Nothing quite like the day after heavy snow where it remains cold enough for it to be sunny but not melt anything, not a common thing but a good thing.

There is one thing better....

...another day of heavy snow! :lol:

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Agreed Barry,its great when you get overnight snow and its cold enough the day after to maintain the cover.When the sun is setting on snow covered fields trees houses etc it can be a sight to behold!

[Stu_London]

Any if someone says it's going to be mild......................

http://images.jupiterimages.com/common/det...40/23304052.jpg

[shuggee]

Very quiet in here this morning. So I thought we could have a laugh.

CFS Model - 25th December 2007 at 12z:

The whole winter seems to be modelled accordingly as incredibly stormy with an exceptionally mobile Atlantic...

[johnholmes]

aw shugs, this is even funnier, and only a couple of days ago that it came out, snow fans drool!

I've decided to keep saving them when I remember just to see how many changes it comes up with.

Edited August 16, 2007 by johnholmes

[shuggee]

Shall we hold a vote?!

[johnholmes]

on what?

will it or wont it?

but I doubt Paul would give a prize anyway

[Damien]

Hmmm... if those FI charts come off it will be an interesting start to September to say the least.

I think this poor 2007 is going to be remembered as having the most incredibly early and preemptive ramping season!

Yes, I did think twice before starting it, LOL.

[Cheviot]

A dream cold event!

Probably more likely to be somewhere between the two - maritime soak followed by / coincide with polar air mass. Good snow for the Black Mountains and Dartmoor. Rain for the rest of the South. North - business as usual.

[Damien]

Nothing quite like the day after heavy snow where it remains cold enough for it to be sunny but not melt anything, not a common thing but a good thing.

Ummm... smells like February 1994.

Days like that.

Agreed Barry,its great when you get overnight snow and its cold enough the day after to maintain the cover.When the sun is setting on snow covered fields trees houses etc it can be a sight to behold!

Or a night when the light from the windows of the house reflect on the lying, settled, unmelting snow outside. Oh, memories.

[Gavin P]

UCL NAO Forecast for winter 2007/2008.

(You will need Adobe Reader)

http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/NAO2007-8Forecast.pdf

Going for a slightly negative NAO, with a higher probability for a colder than average winter, with average precipitation in North-West Europe.

Previous NAO forecasts and verifications, going back to 1999/2000, can be found here;

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_nao.html

Edited August 16, 2007 by Gavin P

[Cheviot]

All coming together nicely for a cold February.

[Damien]

http://climate.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/docs/NAO2007-8Forecast.pdf

Is that a warm anomaly over Greece? :o

Sure is a negative NAO winter they are forecasting. Maybe the long-starved West will get lucky this time too.

[Cheviot]

Interesting localised anomaly over Bordeaux - must be all the fermenting grapes :o

[Cheviot]

Their previous forecasts were'nt too good:

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/for_nao.html

However, for the purposes of enjoying the my delusion, I'm happy to foster more than a slight cold ramping desire. Schnow...schnow....schnoooooowwwwwwwwwwwww.............

[Gavin P]

I find UCL are generally pretty good at picking up the correct signal, i.e. whether the NAO will be positive, negative or neutral, but they are less good at picking up extreme's. For instance, last winter they went weakly positive, and as we know, it was very positive.

[willinkent]

Remember March 2007? That big mass of cold and days of heavy snow which resulted in drifts over the houses rooves in Denmark? It missed us by 250-500miles. Maybe we might get our time and a big winter freeze-up? who knows?

[Cheviot]

I wish I could be that sanguine. Alas, the weather systems around our soggy isle tend to deflect Siberian fronts away.

At the time, the press was on a major ramp to support their Polar hysteria. All that did was undermine the few good Wintry days we had. :o

Looking forward to multiple hysterics and end-of-the-world headlines this winter. What happened to a measured response to the weather? It seemed to coincide with the BBC's and MetO drive about 6 years ago to publish Weather Warnings, which are now so abundant that it's difficult to sort the genuine cataclysm from the mild pitter patter of rain that we actually receive. :o

[Rustynailer]

They were in the early 2000s (in some years), and the winters were all still mild, bar the odd blast (late February 2005).

I'm also a huge fan of the solar cycle, the ENSO cycle, the polar cycles, the this cycle, the that cycle, etc..

The only things that make our chances *slightly* better this year are the ENSO conditions and the recent run of below average months (the cooler summer). That's it.

Oh, and of course Bill Giles thoughts.

The hazel was not abundant here in the 2000s, I presume regional variation, I am close to the sea and possably have slightly different weather as I am on an island.

I find my craving for a cold winter frustrating sometimes. In fact I am nearly 42 and still childishly whine on an on about the lack of it :o . If I didn't like living here that much I would have gone somewhere there is proper winters long ago :o

I like the recent run of cooler months, that gives me and a few other people no doubt good feelings about winter.

I can live with frozen pipes and no transport for a few days, it would be an absolute pleasure

Regards,

Russ.

Edited August 16, 2007 by Rustynailer

[shuggee]

They were in the early 2000s (in some years), and the winters were all still mild, bar the odd blast (late February 2005).

I'm also a huge fan of the solar cycle, the ENSO cycle, the polar cycles, the this cycle, the that cycle, etc..

The only things that make our chances *slightly* better this year are the ENSO conditions and the recent run of below average months (the cooler summer). That's it.

Oh, and of course Bill Giles thoughts. :o

Do you mean July?!

[Devon-Nelly]

Has there been any average or below average winters apart from 05/06, since 2000? can't think of any

[HoarFrost]

Has there been any average or below average winters apart from 05/06, since 2000? can't think of any

It turned quite cold at the tail end of 04/06, and then like you say 05/06. We are totally overdue a cold winter. If this summer's anything to go by then who knows we might get one?

My first post on here :o