Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[nkaol2001]

Now, as you know I have given up on a true cold winter ever again being experienced in this country, and am currently anticipating my move to the colder climes of our near continent. But with a cool summer currently afflicting the country, I thought it best to re-examine the case for a cold winter in the British Isles in 2007/08.

First off, Bill Giles. It was reported in the middle of last winter that Bill Giles, one of the British Isles' most respected forecasters, was anticipating a year that would resemble a pattern like this/of this nature:

-A generally uninspiring winter 2006/07 with a couple of closing cold snaps - one of which occurred on time from memory, the other one I *think* was/may have been a miss,

-A cooler and wet summer - cooler and wetter than in recent times, and shock to the system of the British Isles given recent "global warming" summers such as 2003 and 2006.

I can't remember/don't know if he ever said anything for autumn. Well, I dismissed these predictions as hogwash, even though it was the great Bill Giles; my new "pessimistic" nature only anticipating my future move to Europe and not anymore "phantom" British winters like 2006/07 and the cringeworthy 2005/06. Well, here we are in mid-late summer 2007 - the cooler weather/summer having come off as predicted by Bill Giles (and I think someone else contributed to the forecast), so my interest in the prediction was peaked. But it was another forecast that really caught my 2imagination and brought this back to my attention.

First of all, what did Bill Giles say for winter 2007/08? He saw, in January 2007, winter 2007/08 as being cold, and coming as a real shock to the system given recent British "greenhouse" winters. This was reported on a well known weather forum by a journalist source close to Mr. Giles and generally "in the know". But now, having seen ECPC's latest output, I thought it time to seriously consider these claims once again.

I sat observing and reading ECPC's longer range output, which as you know I follow throughout the course of the year - albeit less in the winter and at the moment with my current move. But I noticed something... that was both "interesting" and "contrasting".

The ECPC - which is of course an arm of the NOAA which has its own current and uninspiring "chopping and changing" winter forecast, as we all know - longer range had thoughts that were certainly very consistent with those of Britain's Mr. Giles. So, I sat there, and checked the longer range "dynamic":

Uninspiring again I know, but then I decided to sit and check the perhaps more accurate new "shorter range", month-by-month model. I looked and opened the pages one by one, to see a correctly forecast cooler and wetter summer:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo1.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo2.png

warming up again in the autumn - still no surprise to me as again I am used to this and I am soon moving:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo3.png

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/imagedata/ncepglb/mon...070701A_Mo4.png

(a *slightly* cooler October though (once again!) from the west indicating a north-westerly dominated wild and wet month (or at least potentially)). And then came this monster - and I was blown off my chair!:

and then I remembered Bill Giles forecast. And the cool summer. And how correct this was. And put two and two together to realise and think that *maybe*, just *maybe*... there is something more to this than meets the eye. :o

Bill Giles and the ECPC have both forecasted poor summers. The Met Office forecasted an uncertain but still likely above average one, IMMSMC. And now both the former are forecasting at least a cold start of winter. Or maybe I'm just clutching at straws for one final time as we do every year.

Anyhow, if I am wrong about Mr. Giles or the Experimental Climate Prediction Center, then either of these can feel free to prompt and correct me on my observations. Thank you.

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales, I thought I might like to put the record straight. The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people. I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better :o And why not, it would be about time. Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time! The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise.

[Rollo]

I feel I must reply to the comment NKAOL that the weather has been behaving like "scum", you have a very short memory or am I incorrect,last summer was great as was the summer before,last winter unless you are a snow lover like me was mild and certainly not particularly savage in any way so to say we are overdue some good weather is IMO way way off beam-rant over. While I am on let me say a big welcome to Hoar Frost-you will really enjoy the best weather site on the web.

[sundog]

Has there been any average or below average winters apart from 05/06, since 2000? can't think of any

I thought winter 2000-01 was a reasonably cold one . I remember we had a cold spell with some snow around xmas then a very cold one at the end of feb with alot of snow. In fact that was the last proper snowfall ive seen here since then

[Terminal Moraine]

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales

I beg to differ. Although this summer has been very wet the rainfall has tended to fall in very large amounts over a short period of time and there have been several spells of, if not hot and sunny weather, then certainly rather warm and sunny weather.

I can think of at least half a dozen summers in my lifetime which were much 'worse' than this one and many more still, before my time.

Try 1954, 1956, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1978, 1985, 1986 and 1988 for starters.

T.M

[ribster]

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales, I thought I might like to put the record straight. The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people. I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better And why not, it would be about time. Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time! The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise.

Nearly took the bait on that one..... but I won't bother

[Damien]

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales, I thought I might like to put the record straight. The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people. I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better And why not, it would be about time. Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time! The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise.

My heart almost stopped there as I thought Bill Giles was replying to one of my posts! What an honour.

But, as (almost every) winter, the reality is far from such an honour.

The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people.

That's the first time a severe winter has been mentioned in this thread. Well, except for the earlier ECPC November chart, which we have all (except climatic newbies - no offence guys + gals) taken with the usual healthy dose of scepticism and salt.

I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better

You're right and a winter milder than 1997/98 (is it possible?) is certainly a realistic threat we face every year.

Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time!

On one forecast alone?

On one cooler summer brought about by natural variability alone?

I don't think so. No offence, but you obviously don't seem to know much about climate science; not surprising from someone who writes, "The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise".

Experienced meteorologists and enthusiasts like us don't (at least *normally*) use that word, I think you will find.

I can think of at least half a dozen summers in my lifetime which were much 'worse' than this one and many more still, before my time.

Try 1954, 1956, 1965, 1966, 1972, 1978, 1985, 1986 and 1988 for starters.

1999.

(That's not at you by the way - that's at the shocking soaked "summer" that was... 1999. What a pathetic year that was to end an otherwise great century - just an off-topic note.)

[TEITS]

As we are enduring the WORST summer everknown in England & Wales, I thought I might like to put the record straight. The thought of a severe winter is nothing more than wishful thinking by misguided people. I firmly believethat we willhave adry& mild winter: similiar to 88/89,but better And why not, it would be about time. Incidentally, if the f/cast by Mr. Giles is anywhere near correct, then surely the idea of Britain's weather getting warmer,must be the greatest modern myth of all time! The climate cannot behave like scum all the time,so sooner or later it will improve......it cannot do anything otherwise.

At the moment nobody is forecasting a severe winter and all the posts on this thread are merely discussing the possiblities of what may lie ahead.

Personally I haven't a clue at this stage and prefer to look at the signals between Oct-Nov of what kind of winter we may have. What I don't do is just assume our winter will be mild based on our recent winters because this summer has been a great example of not using the past to predict the future. Let's face it considering our summers in recent years who on earth would of predicted this dreadful summer and im not just talking weather wise but synoptically.

I always look forward to Damiens posts on this subject especially around this time of year and IMO alot of the fun isn't the actual winter itself but discussing what may possibly happen.

[Damien]

I find UCL are generally pretty good at picking up the correct signal, i.e. whether the NAO will be positive, negative or neutral, but they are less good at picking up extreme's. For instance, last winter they went weakly positive, and as we know, it was very positive.

They said winter 2004/05 would be the third most negative NAO winter ever, didn't they? Well, those kind of winters are always cold; and 2004/05 (bar February)?

I agree the general trends are good but anything (or even everything?) else is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

I can live with frozen pipes and no transport for a few days, it would be an absolute pleasure

Me too.

Has there been any average or below average winters apart from 05/06, since 2000? can't think of any

2005/06?

[david16]

Considering that temperatures this summer have at times been down by 5C to 7C on recent hot summer bests, you would think logically that temperatures this winter would at times be considerably down from the constant dreaded satanic +11C to +13C daytime maximum December to February temperatures (+5C to +7C at night) that we seem to get far too much of these days.

To get down to 0C winter daytime maximum, it surely must be easier to fall down to that mark when the summer daytime maximum temperature has generally been nearer +20C than +30C.

Edited August 17, 2007 by david16

[Nick F]

To get down to 0C winter daytime maximum, it surely must be easier to fall down to that mark when the summer daytime maximum temperature has generally been nearer +20C than +30C.

I'm afraid there's no strong correlation between a summer that has lacked 30C+ temps and a greater chance of seeing day max near 0C in winter, the records show examples of cool summers where 30C wasn't reached followed by a rather mild winter, 1988 is a good example - winter 88/89 was very mild. Then we can look at the other side of the coin, summer 1990 was a very hot summer, with the all-time UK max of 37.1C reached until it was surpassed in 2003, Winter 1990/91 was cold at times - particularly February when an E/NE'ly brought sub-zero day maxes. Summer 1995 was hot, but winter 1995/96 was cold at times - particularly December.

Having said there is quite a few examples of cool summers being followed by a cold autumn month, 1988 and 1993 (both rather cool summers) saw cold Novembers with snow.

[Cheviot]

Thought I'd add to this Winter's conjecture by adding some observations from nature (I know - about a month earlier than las year's similar debate!).

Homespun indicators of forth coming cold winter:

"If St. Bartholomew's be clear, A prosperous autumn comes that year." (St. Bartholomew's - 24th August)

-wait and see, but looks like some rain is on the way for the 24th

If the first week be warm, then winter will be white and long.

-may be: warmer than what, though?

Squirrels burying their nuts - the deeper their hole, the colder it'll be

-

Lots of fruit and berries on the trees

- true this year: apples and plum trees are heavily laden

Anyone seen a Waxwing?

Based on this analysis, too early to predict. I've certainly never seen so much fruit on the trees. My plum tree has been wrecked by the heavy fruits ripping whole branches down.

[Frosty.]

Bill Giles was one of the best bbc forecasters BUT his monthly outlook predictions proved to be as ludicrous as a certain Everton Fox. It is still impossible to predict a month ahead even with all the powerful computer technology at the disposal of the experts and therefore I suggest that Bill got lucky with his summer 2007 prediction but the winter will end up being the same old mild muck as usual.

[KDME]

Lots of fruit and berries on the trees

- true this year: apples and plum trees are heavily laden

I don't buy into nature offering indicators as to what lays ahead weather wise but I have to mention the pear tree in my parents garden. Gone totally mad this year. It has produced so much fruit this year, it is equal to almost what it normally produces in 2 years. They are already ripe and falling all over the place.

I have had a couple of buckets of fruit already.

Off topic but it is an unusual thing!

Edited August 17, 2007 by Weather_Novice

[osmposm]

Anyone seen a Waxwing?

Based on this analysis, too early to predict. I've certainly never seen so much fruit on the trees. My plum tree has been wrecked by the heavy fruits ripping whole branches down.

There's been a bit of this discussion in other threads, especially "Early Signs of Autumn".

It's too early for waxwings - their periodic eruptions into the UK (caused by failures of the rowan berry crop in their native range, or population explosions following a good previous berrying season) are generally in winter and never before October.

As to this year's heavy fruiting, it follows on ideal conditions rather than presaging anything. Lack of spring frosts allows more fruit to set, and ample water as it swells allows more to be retained - in dry weather trees and shrubs tend to automatically drop a proportion of their crop so that the remaining fruit/berries can form properly and ripen, given adequate warmth. Lack of warmth is seldom an issue in native (or climatically suitable) plants these days, though it may be a problem for grapes this year if things do not warm up: currently the vines are heavily laden - little thinning has been needed because of the high rainfall - but they badly need some heat now and into September to ripen properly.

Um, yes, sorry - we have gone off topic, haven't we?

[moses]

There's been a bit of this discussion in other threads, especially "Early Signs of Autumn".

It's too early for waxwings - their periodic eruptions into the UK (caused by failures of the rowan berry crop in their native range, or population explosions following a good previous berrying season) are generally in winter and never before October.

As to this year's heavy fruiting, it follows on ideal conditions rather than presaging anything. Lack of spring frosts allows more fruit to set, and ample water as it swells allows more to be retained - in dry weather trees and shrubs tend to automatically drop a proportion of their crop so that the remaining fruit/berries can form properly and ripen, given adequate warmth. Lack of warmth is seldom an issue in native (or climatically suitable) plants these days, though it may be a problem for grapes this year if things do not warm up: currently the vines are heavily laden - little thinning has been needed because of the high rainfall - but they badly need some heat now and into September to ripen properly.

Um, yes, sorry - we have gone off topic, haven't we?

There were three blackbirds on the lawn this morning, two males, one female - all moving in clockwise circular rotations of 1.04m radius, finishing in an easterly direction bearing 089 degrees. The last time this happened according to my records was ....... AUGUST 1978 , then August 1995.??

[david16]

Maybe for once this coming winter we won't see everything sweeping in from the southwest virtually all the time, with January and February day (night) after day (after night) totally dominated by temperatures something like +10C (+6C), +11C (+5C), +11C (+10C), +12C (+9C), +10C (+9C), +9C (+8C) then continuing the same dismal pattern for another 5 or 6 days after that, then briefly a 2 day (night) northerly resulting in a temporary respite of +3C (+3C) and +4C (+2C) , before another 10 to 12 successive days of murk see temps again being +10C (+7C), +13C (+8C) +11C (+8C), +8C (+7C) etc etc.

Edited August 17, 2007 by david16

[summer blizzard]

For any of the newbies thinking that ramping is extremem and early this year, people should remember that in 2005, a sub-forum had to be created due to the shear volume of early ramping.

Also, the June-July anologues suggest a higher than average incidence of both northrlies and easterlies and also lower than average pressure suggesting lots of snow.

[Mr Sleet]

Also, the June-July anologues suggest a higher than average incidence of both northrlies and easterlies and also lower than average pressure suggesting lots of snow.

Hi SB-that has to be the earliest and most outrageous snow ramp ever - we are only just past the middle of August

[Coast]

Hi SB-that has to be the earliest and most outrageous snow ramp ever - we are only just past the middle of August

And I don't want to add any fuel to the fire but......

[VillagePlank]

At the moment nobody is forecasting a severe winter ....

My winter forecast is 'severe'

Whether it's severly dull and boring, I'm not sure yet, but I'm sure I will be able to describe it using varying degrees of severity

[Mr Sleet]

And I don't want to add any fuel to the fire but......

Good God, you can't even see Eastbourne pier under that lot

[snowmadchrisuk]

As it is quiet in here I thought I would post a couple of charts.

6th Sep this year

6th Sep last year

you can clearly see the much more extensive cold pooling this year as appose to last year. Also on 6th september last year the southen uk was covered in +15 850's a lot different to what we have for this year.

Edited August 21, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As it is quiet in here I thought I would post a couple of charts.

6th Sep this year

6th Sep last year

you can clearly see the much more extensive cold pooling this year as appose to last year. Also on 6th september last year the southen uk was covered in +15 850's a lot different to what we have for this year.

One problem...this year's chart doesn't exist yet. It is better, or will be if it happens which is plausible currently

BFTP

[snowmadchrisuk]

Now if we go back even further I have the chart from 6th september 1948 and 6th september 1962, now if we remember 62/63 was one of the most remembered winters in history and although it shows colder air is closer to the uk it also does show that the cold pooling was not as extensive or as cold as it is on the 6th september this year. Unfortuanly the 850 charts dont start till 1948 so can not show you the 47 charts.

One problem...this year's chart doesn't exist yet. It is better, or will be if it happens which is plausible currently

BFTP

I Stand corrected there as it is an f1 chart for this year but the cold pooling is still starting to build well now even on current charts, call it a feeling but I have good feelings for this year and will save these charts and see what 6th september this year really does show.

Still find this information very interesting though and will now go and check chart differences with current charts.

[damianslaw]

Now if we go back even further I have the chart from 6th september 1948 and 6th september 1962, now if we remember 62/63 was one of the most remembered winters in history and although it shows colder air is closer to the uk it also does show that the cold pooling was not as extensive or as cold as it is on the 6th september this year. Unfortuanly the 850 charts dont start till 1948 so can not show you the 47 charts.

I Stand corrected there as it is an f1 chart for this year but the cold pooling is still starting to build well now even on current charts, call it a feeling but I have good feelings for this year and will save these charts and see what 6th september this year really does show.

Still find this information very interesting though and will now go and check chart differences with current charts.

I would interested to see the difference between 1985 and what is progged for this year. As we know 1985/86 winter produced our last truely sub zero CET for any month i.e. February.

I seem to recall seeing a chart for Sept 6th 1985 showing very cold weather relative to the time of year over the country.