Hurricane Season is dead

[Met4Cast]

There is yet to be a hurricane, I said months ago that this season would be a very calm one due to the fact that there is so much high pressure in the Atlantic stopping the hurricanes from developing, Even though there are warmer sea levels the high pressure is just stopping the depressions from forming which is of course fantastic news

[SnowBear]

I wouldn't say the season is dead, the season can go all the way into late December. 4.5 months to go as yet and it only takes a slight shift of the systems in the Atlantic for TS and Hurricanes to have ideal conditions. Even if we have only 1 named TS or hurricane per week until then it still gives us 16 - 18 named storms for this season. Lets see how the season goes rather writing it off this early.

Edited August 9, 2007 by SnowBear

[kold weather]

what you've said actually is pretty close to the turth in terms of why its been fairly queit so far, the pressure to the north of the tropical atlantic has been above average, its not really that surprising given just how strong the jet has been, obviously the Azores high will beef up through the pressure gradient and this has been constantly dragging stable air from Africa though there are signs of this starting to change on the longer term models now.

As for the lack of a hurricane right now, I really wouldn't read too much into it, 1998 for example got its first hurricane on the 22nd of August and ended up with 14 named storms and 10 hurricanes including a cat-5 in Mitch. 2001 didn't get its first hurricane till the 1st of September and yet eventhat managed 9 hurricanes and 4 majors.

Given we've had 3 named storms so far we are on track for about 15-16 named storms (we are about 20% of the way thorugh the season now) though we will soon fall behind if something doesn't form in the next 2-3 weeks but thats plenty of time for something to get going. We are behind on the tropical storm days however that just sums up that we've got a fairly unfavorable set-up over the last month and its not surprising given how short lived these systems were. However in terms of numbers we are ahea dof normal, by the end of August a normal season would have 5 storms by 1st September, we currently have 3 with 22 days left of the month.

Here is the latest forecast expecting 13-16 named storms:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2905.htm

I myself would expect something a little on the lower side of that range now, maybe 13-14, still pretty active.

Finally, lest us forget it only takes one hurricane to make a season legendary, take 1992 with hurricane Andrew, only had 6 storms but Andrew was a beast and extremely dangerous.

Edited August 9, 2007 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

My mid season update will be out in the next week or two, however right now i would say that we are on track for my 16 predicted named storms.

[saint]

i dont think hurricane season is dead yet as we still have time

[Cookie]

didnt realise it can go on till mid december, whats the latest in the year a hurricane has been recorded?

[SnowBear]

The official record according to NOAA is "the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second “Alice” of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. ".

Tropical Storm Zeta of 2005 was around at the same time of the year, the 30th Dec and on to 6th January 2006, thus becoming the longest surviving January Tropical Storm in the Atlantic.

Admittedly hurricanes and tropical storms are rare this late in the year, but by no means unprecedented.

Edited August 9, 2007 by SnowBear

[tinybill]

dont know about dead just looked at this program look at the run on it

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13 at +184 hr

[crimsone]

NOAA forcast update of 2 days ago... -

Expected Activity - 85% chance above normal, 10% chance near normal, 5% chance below normal

13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. ACE index 140%-200% of the median

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl...hurricane.shtml