Tropical Wave Thread

[kold weather]

Iceberg are you sure thats the African wave, because the date says the 7th of August and also that does look ratherlike Mexico wit hthe Pacific on one side and the gulf on the other?

[Blackie]

I'd agree with Kold. That definitely looks like Mexico to me. You can see the Caribbean coastline to the right of the picture.

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, that looks like the remenants of 99L perhaps that moved off the coast of mexico 4 or 5 days ago. I could be wrong but that's what it looks like to me.

EDIT: which incidentally, is now that area of disturbed weather east of cat 3 Hurricane Flossie, and it's still hinting at development!

Edited August 11, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

It should be noted that no named storm forming east of 50W has ever made lanfall in the USA.

[Iceberg]

I thought it looked a bit strange !

Sorry feeling very feverish etc today and am certainly not thinking straight.

GFS 06 still develops it, particularly once it hits the warmer SST's.

(real sat picture !)

The winds below the main area of precip certainly looks a bit strong.

[Iceberg]

Latest thoughts from the Meto forecasting it as a TS in 12 hours, bit OTT really.

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 11.08.2007 10.7N 18.9W WEAK

00UTC 12.08.2007 12.5N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.08.2007 11.6N 25.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.08.2007 11.8N 28.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.08.2007 12.1N 31.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.5N 34.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 12.6N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 13.1N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 14.4N 44.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.1N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.6N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.8N 54.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[kold weather]

It should be noted that no named storm forming east of 50W has ever made lanfall in the USA.

Well thats not really true, there are MANY hurricanes that form around 30-40w and go on to hit the USA, for example we have Allen, Isabel, Andrew, Hugo, Floyd, David, Miami 1926, Donna, Ivan to name some but certainly not even close toall of them.

Anyway I won't post my next topic because....

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/in...al902007.invest

We have Invest 90L.

Also worth noting that the Caribbean is looking quite convective this eveing, would watch down there as well, maybe some development from Monday-Wednesday, upper low right now shearing everything but it forecasted to move out. We'll see whether the convection is enhanced by the ULL or not, if its stil lthere this time tomorrow I'll be curious.

Edited August 11, 2007 by kold weather

[tinybill]

one thing for if this thing do kick off next week the one place i would not like to be will be the Caribbean it could easy get smashed next week

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

[kold weather]

Right any chat on Invest 90L (African wave) can be posted here:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1041913

Tinybill, keep posting those models in that thread, most interesting to keep up with it.

[kold weather]

As noted on Saturday could see something developing from the mess in the Caribbean over the enxt few days as it heads NW towards the gulf. Upper atmospheric contions aren't great right now but condtions are better to its NW in the gulf . Upper low is now starting to move away and so in the next 12-24hrs condtions will improve for the system and its there that it may have a shot at becoming a short lived tropical cyclone over the high temps of the gulf waters. Models indicating a NW sort of motion towards Texas so if it forms may need watching here as it'll make landfall somewhere with a NW motion it has now.

[Iceberg]

Far too much happening atm, this has turned into 91L KW, could be a short but explosive little thing with the high energy content should mean that even the slow motion of it might not hamper intensity. A Hit from Mexico to LA is possible with this one. TD5!.

[crimsone]

yes, the NHC do seem to be saying that development is likely... a personal inferance of course... they say "later today or tomorrow", which to me suggests the conditions are there.

[kold weather]

Tell me about it, pretty much bang on time as well, I did say in the August CET thread it wil lget busier in the tropics soon mind you...not a bad call IMO!!!

said this on the 29th of July:

Beyond the 15th and real signs of tropical developments really getting going which will really complicate the pattern, they are the wild card.

Anyhow worth noting there is quite a number of waves moving along Africa now ready for the cape Verde season. Condtions in the Atlantic stil laren't stunning despite TD4's development with the strong trade winds pushing systems westwarss between 15-20kts coupled with easterly shear. Still there are some pretty strong waves present with one weaker one heading into the Atlantic now and may need watching once around 30-40W if it can keep its current convection though air is somewhat drier with this system.

Edited August 13, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Some GM support for one of those waves in the next couple of days.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 21.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.08.2007 13.5N 21.0W WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2007 13.6N 23.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2007 13.9N 25.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2007 15.0N 28.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2007 16.1N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.08.2007 17.1N 35.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2007 18.3N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2007 20.4N 40.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2007 22.5N 41.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[Gray-Wolf]

By the looks of things there is a real chance that the stormy mass exiting west Africa right now may form the first major 'Cape Verde storm' of this season. It is situated north of the ITCZ and so is able to 'feed' off that input too.

[kold weather]

Well really Dean is the first tropical storm from the CApe Verde season. however given the UKMO does develop it and its look pretty decent it woulsn't be that unsurprisng if w esee something from that wave. It does look pretty deecnt right now with a hefty area of moisture with it so SAL shouldn't be that much of a problem. We'll see how it deals with the lower lapse rates tomorrow however if it holds its convection like DEan did we could have another player by the end of the weekend.

FWIW the GFS 06z run also picks up this system and sendsit on a similar track to Dean before lifting out around 240hrs. Atmopsheric condtions in the east Atlantic are probably more faovrable then what we saw with Dean given the way the SAL is decreasing, tohugh the trades would still be quite strong and its hard to know how much shear may be left out there, as we saw it took til about 40W before DEan got rid of it.

[Iceberg]

A quick update in here as we are entering another critical 48 hr period. Various GM's including the latest 06Z from GFS show the wave/LP currently leaving Africa turning into a TS, or even in the GFS POV a Hurricane with the next 4 days.!.

Currently thinking is a slightly more southerly track with probably less shear and more latent oceanic het to draw upon.

[Iceberg]

I know Dean is in the pic but ignore him....Difficult I know.

The massof convection at 35W will need watching it's become a little better organised in the last 12 hours and is far enough behind Dean to get established in it's own right.

[kold weather]

Mass of convection Iceberg has mentioned has split into two areas of convection, one tugging roughly the 10N line and the other the NE of the Leeward islands. Both may need watching but the northern one maybe more so then the southern most one given the southern mass has not been firing up convection for all that long and its lattiude means its going to suck a lot of dry air from SA.

However the upper most system has been looking pretty good for the last few days now. Its well away from Dean's outflow though at the moment its direction is being controlled by the same ridge. Convection is pretty decent this morning with quite a alrge mass of convection present with the wave and it may not be long before we have invest 92L with this system given the current structure isn't all that bad at all.

Right now Dean is obviously rightly taking full attention but in another 3-5 days don't be surprised if we have a developing tropical cyclone out of this one and the track should take it pretty close to Florida, roughly heading along the same motion as Dean (just north of west) once it reaches about 60W which would put Florida at much higher risk then Dean was, given this wave is already way north of where Dean was at this latitude.

So we may see a new invest later today and this system could well become a tropical depression fairly readily if it can form a LLC underneath that convection, providing the convection can hold. Could be a USA threat and maybe Felix by the end of this week. System track may not be all that different from Rita IMO...

Edited August 20, 2007 by kold weather

[kold weather]

Another tropical wave that is a long way away but may need watching is currently just rolling off Africa, it does look good and GFS is sort of latching onto something in the next 72hrs but its not as well organised as Dean was at the same time. Its a big wave right now but we'll have to see over the next 4-5 days how well it survives over the water sof the Atlantic, temps in general still a touch below average due to the strong Azores high. Wave should emerge tonight or tomorrow and we'll see how it survives.

Very early days but we've already seen with Dean that these long trackers can develop this season and we are now at the time of the season which can support cape verde cyclones and this may wlel be one of them.

[Gray-Wolf]

The UKMO model seems to have it develop on the US side of the Azores high and zip up due north...central atlantic storm anyone?

[Iceberg]

It seems pretty quiet on here lately and tbh I can see why, not much happening.

The below I am mildly interested in but chances are still minimal.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 16N33W 3N29W ESTIMATED TO BE

MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE CYCLONIC TURNING

AND HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THIS WAVE HAVE HAD A SW MOTION

OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...AS DENOTED BY TODAYS VIS IMAGERY AND

THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 29W-35W.

Quick note:

Conditions are set to improve alot in approx 3 to 4 days time. GM's seem to be toying with developing another feature as it leaves Africa, Giving another Deanesque development. Worth keeping an eye on in the next few days.

[kold weather]

There are a few sort of interesting areas but nothing that stands out right in terms of waves. There is quite a large mass of convection in the south Caribbean that may wlel need to be watched given the heat content and there is some pretty decent outflow with the system it seems and we'll have to see if convection remains overnight and whether it can get better organised, there is a upper level low way in the NNE which may also be aiding that outflow, it may need watching over the next couple of days as it drifts away from land and deeper int othe Caribbean and higher heat content. Too early yet to gauge what chance it has however. If its still good tomorrow then it will have an invest and may be quite quick former if it can keep itself going over the next 24hrs.

As you say Iceberg models are showing something forming towards the latter half of the upcoming week, I believe the northwards movement of the Azores high core probably will slowly help to loose the stable airmass over the tropical region. note when Dean formed the Azores high only had pressure around 1020mbs and that probably reduced the area of stable air.

Hopefully we should see the waves coming off Africa not get sapped as badly by all the stable air!

On a final note, while it is pretty queit right now, we are one storm ahead of 2001 which ended up having 15 tropical storms in the end, with Felix not forming til the 8th of September. If we can ditch the more stable set-up over the next 2 weeks no reason why we can't still have an active season.

[Iceberg]

Less convection in the Caribbean wave, Kold mentioned, but better organised.

Some good rotation can be seen on the loop.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A LOW/MID

LEVEL LOW ROTATION IS TO THE W OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N75W WITH AN

UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE E OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N68W BUT THERE NO

INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING

TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH DISORGANIZED

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN

66W-77W.

Edited August 27, 2007 by Iceberg

[summer blizzard]

Kold Weather, right now i believe that we are bang on average in termes of the number of named storms forming, so the call for an average season would be best at the moment, nevertheless, i will be posting my mid-season update within the next few days.

The wave in the western Gulf is to close to land, and the wave in the Carribean is too far south, this we should be looking towards Africa at the moment.