Tropical Wave Thread

[Iceberg]

The fsu takes a likely to this feature, GM's also develop it to some degree.

The track is non-existant i.e it's expect to stay pretty stationary, however I would think this could be upgraded to 95L tomorrow.

[Iceberg]

The fsu takes a likely to this feature, GM's also develop it to some degree.

The track is non-existant i.e it's expect to stay pretty stationary, however I would think this could be upgraded to 95L tomorrow.

This has indeed been upgraded and we now have Invest 95L, so over to the invest thread.

[kold weather]

Its funny because right now the two main tropical waves to watch both look better then the two invests!

First one to watch in the short term is the wave heading inland into S.Yucatan. It has a good circulation with it and a large convective blow-up, esp on the western side of the wave. Its not going to develop while overland but if it can keep this current organisation up then once it emerges back into the far S.BOC and there it could develop quickly into a tropical depression though it may not have the time to become any stronger then that but it will have a fair shot at becoming something IMO.

Other then that a large tropical wave moving west just tothe south of the Azores region. It has a pretty chunky area of moisture with it with some decent convection on both the northern and southern side of the wave axis though which one decides to take charge is uncertain right now. Water vapour does show some slightly drier air to the N though its not at all strong but its hard to know whether there is any SAL present with it or not. Also its hard to say whether the shear with 94L will still be present once this wave gets that far west. However this has a good chance of becoming an invest over the next 48hrs if it can keep up what its got and in the long term may be something to watch.

[Iceberg]

Strong wave forecast to move off Africa in the next few days, GFS has been very keen on this, with limited support from the other GM's.

[RisingStar]

Not sure if this is the correct thread but...

I thought I would mention the mass of thunderstorms which are sitting in the Gulf of Mexico, I suppose this could be an area which may be identified if anything begins to develop.

[Iceberg]

Strong wave forecast to move off Africa in the next few days, GFS has been very keen on this, with limited support from the other GM's.

All GM's develop this now as it sits out in the Atlantic a weakness in the ridge means an early re-curve of any developing system, meaning it will probably just fish. Circulation is noted around the system by the NHC

[kold weather]

This looks a good one to develop but as other shave said theres a pretty hefty weakness in the mid-Atlantic that will take this system north-westwards once it reaches 40W in about 36hrs. I wouldn't like to say how strong it could get, however the further west it can get the greater the max strength can be.

the big uncertainty right now with the track is will it get far enough north to follow the weakness een once the ridge closes back upagain or will it stay far enough south to be sent back westwards again and also how fast will that trough move t othe NE. It'll also be interesting to see whether the models are overdoing this weakness or not. I suppose we'll find out over the next 7 days. About 95% chance it'll be a fish even if it doesn't totally re-curve at the first attempt.

If this does develop either way its going to be a pretty long tracker I suspect.

[Iceberg]

Quick update in here.

Whilst watching 96L(TD12), it's noticable that alot of the models both GM and tropical develop further TS/Hurricanes very quickly behind(easterwards) of TD12.

It looks like 2 more system might well develop in the next 4/5 days, the first one I believe is just leaving Africa.

[Somerset Squall]

A few areas to watch over the coming days: one in the gulf of Mexico, one to the east of the Bahamas and the remnants of Melissa.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE

GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS

BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO

EVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT

DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT

10 MPH.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS

EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON

THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM

MELISSA...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 1350

MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR

SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

The area east of the Bahamas is looking quite good at the moment, some healthy convection there. The remnants of Melissa redeveloping are slim but there still is a chance if the shear eases a little.

[liquidjp]

The remnants of Melissa redeveloping are slim but there still is a chance if the shear eases a little.

Quick query, if Melissa did re-develop would it still be called Melissa? Has this ever happened?

[Somerset Squall]

Quick query, if Melissa did re-develop would it still be called Melissa? Has this ever happened?

I'm not entirely sure, I think if the remnants can be tracked continuously from when the storm dies until it reforms then it will keep the same name. It's certainly not uncommon, Ivan did this in 2004, and Chantal, Dean, Erin and Felix in 2001 all degenerated into a remnant low before firing up again.